david D. Profile picture
Feb 8 5 tweets 1 min read
sorry i have to say something... probably not politically correct but its the best way to get my point driven home.

watching old T64s and T-90s (with crap crews) fighting looks like 2 midgets fighting in an ally at 2 am to most western tankers....
JUST SO MANY THINGS WRONG... yes at the end there will be a winner, but trust me, trained western crews just CRING watching most engagements. yes the ukr forces are doing far better, but they are limited by the tanks they have
people dont understand that when the western, or upgraded tanks get there (or brads ) get to ukr it will be a game changer.. now you are going to see the same fight but at 12 pm, and its going to be 5 midgets, facing a MMA fighter, holding a cricket bat.... with spikes on it
same fight but this time it will be must see TV with the viewers feeling sorry for russians after a while... yes ru tanks suck that bad, and yes western tanks, training, and combat support (arty / intel) is that good.
in todays world the only way a soviet era tank can win in a fight is to fight another soviet era tank.... once the west enters the fight for the most part that option goes away.

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More from @secretsqrl123

Feb 10
new thread on what im seeing, and NOT seeing on the battlefield in ukr.....
***** disclaimer, i am a former intel guy for the US army with a LONG history of getting things right.. BUT im in texas and dont have all the tools i used to have at one time, but i am good, soooo *****
the russian offensive, that has been what everyone has been asking me. in 10 days with 1800ish tanks, 400 FW AC, 3000+ AFVs.... etc..

guys thats about the entire firepower of nearly everything that russia has in theater...
for russia to get 400 fixed wing birds in the air you are talking about "eagle day", when russia strips aircraft from EVERYWHERE in russia and throws it at a small area in ukr... and with the building ADA network that would be fine with me.
Read 15 tweets
Feb 9
combat math... russia from reports started the war with about 10,000 arty guns of all types. so far officially ukr is saying about 2200+ are gone. historically ru has 2 broken guns for every combat loss.. so a guess would say that ru has about 3000 WORKING guns left.
ukr had at the start, and adding western guns total AT LEAST 3020 (not counting captured guns), most are now western guns that can fire PGMs. this means that the ukr artillery can have a gun worth 4-5 russian guns. in effect as of RIGHT NOW... ukr has a edge on artillery
and the fact is that many countries no longer report what they are sending and how many.. so the artillery edge could be far more in ukr favor. add into that.. we know that himars are hunting ru artillery its not looking good going forward for ru artillery crews.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 8
my prediction for today. the next major change in the war will be the announcement of donated aircraft. looking at types, and aircraft that CAN be used without crossing that "red line" i keep coming up with a single aircraft. the mirage 2000 Image
its recently retired from 2 euro countries

they have about 150-175 that can fly

its not a "new" aircraft and ru would have a issue saying its up to russian standards, so they cant say its a threat.

can carry the most modern nato type arms
they are in countries that have given prior and have "crossed the line" prior

good strike and interceptor aircraft

similar to the MIG29 and SU27 in flight

simpler to keep in the air (single engine)

parts are out there

france can still support it
Read 4 tweets
Feb 7
sometimes its better to let the other guy attack first...
Read 6 tweets
Jan 30
tanks... numbers of tanks, types of tanks, what impact will they have, when will they get there????

too much, and not enough......
this thread is going to be a little bit of a ramble and im going to hit some questions i have got and some stupid i have seen going around as news....
ok OMG... 31 tanks, its not, not really.. its the 31 tanks the US is sending that crossed the red line (really the brits did with the challengers). this whole war has been driven on who is going to give what next... the brits and french crossed the line, then the US
Read 13 tweets
Jan 27
just got another question...
about numbers (of russian dead) and if the UKR (BDA) numbers of russians are right...
no they are not (overall)
NOT at all from reports.......
from the daily reports ukr lists numbers dead... 300-900 each day.. depending on situations. this is a guess to be sure. but a good guess that has to be checked and verified. if its way too high then people lose faith in it.
BUT ukr is not openly counting WIA/ MIA / POWs etc...
they dont count
people dying from wounds months later due to bad hospital care
soldiers that drink themselves to death
training accidents
road accidents
suicides
and many other deaths NOT directly due to combat actions
Read 6 tweets

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