Thread by @ukraine_world

🇹🇷 Turkey's support for Ukraine and cooperation with Russia: highlights. UkraineWorld spoke to Yevgeniya Gaber, senior fellow at the Centre in Modern Turkish Studies. Key points – in our brief, #UkraineWorldAnalysis 1/12

Turkey is consistent in its support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity, though its rhetoric on Russia is generally very soft. Turkey stresses the importance of the full de-occupation of Ukraine, including Crimea, but calls for negotiations with Russia. 2/12

So, the question remains how to reach this goal. For a successful counter-offensive, it will be critical for Ukraine to be supplied with long-range weapons, tanks, and fighter jets, as well as for stronger sanctions to be levied against Russia. 3/12

🇹🇷 has not joined the sanctions against 🇷🇺, and 🇹🇷officials publicly criticize the West for supplying weapons, which in their view, don’t help end the conflict. Its important to look at the steps Ankara is taking to support 🇺🇦, rather than focus on its anti-Western rhetoric. 4/12

Despite its desire to play an instrumental role as a neutral mediator in the negotiation process and economic benefits from cooperation with 🇷🇺, 🇹🇷supplies 🇺🇦 with weapons, including Bayraktar drones and Kirpi armored vehicles, which shows Ankara’s alignment with Ukraine. 5/12

However, anti-Western trends and nationalistic rhetoric from the government ahead of the elections play into 🇷🇺hands. However, 🇹🇷voted for 🇺🇦 UN resolutions condemning 🇷🇺 aggression, has closed the Straits for 🇷🇺 warships, and is currently building corvettes for the 🇺🇦 navy. 6/12

There are 2 aspects of Turkey's cooperation with Russia, the first of which is military-political. 7/12

Due to 🇷🇺's defeats in Ukraine and in the international arena, Turkey has gradually begun to overcome the myth of the Russian military’s invincibility and has strengthened its position in regions where 🇷🇺 influence has faded away, like in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. 8/12

However, in the economic sphere, Turkey is still dependent on Russia, especially on Russian gas, nuclear technologies, markets, tourists, and financial resources. 9/12

Though 🇹🇷has been actively developing its own gas fields in the Black Sea, is working to expand gas imports from🇦🇿, &has increased the level of renewables in its energy consumption, there is still a long way to go before it can overcome its overreliance on 🇷🇺energy supplies.10/12

Turkey has already entered its electoral marathon. The vote is scheduled for May 14, and the period until then will be very sensitive. The polarization of society makes it vulnerable to Russian influences and reflexive control operations. 11/12

For example, the recent episode of the burning of a Qur'an in Stockholm, which had a clear connection to Russia, has led to a cancellation of a Swedish minister’s visit to Turkey, and de-facto blocking of Sweden's accession to NATO. 12/12