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Mikhail Khodorkovsky

@khodorkovsky_en

Apr 8

The real Iran crisis is nearing a terrifying tipping point. We are one mistake away from a catastrophic energy and water collapse that will trigger a global humanitarian emergency.

Here is why the "informal limits" are about to break: 🧵 [1/15]

The Iran crisis is approaching a crossroads. Either it settles into a fragile political arrangement, or it escalates into a wider regional conflict. Either way, the consequences will reach far beyond the Middle East. [2/15]

For Washington, a prolonged war is politically difficult to sustain. Legal constraints, competing priorities and the pressure of the upcoming midterms all push toward outcomes that appear decisive without being open-ended. [3/15]

Read 15 tweets

Mikhail Khodorkovsky

@khodorkovsky_en

Apr 7

Do you remember that recent, incredibly awkward exchange between Pashinyan and Putin in the Kremlin?

It was a masterclass in geopolitical trolling. Pashinyan literally looked Putin in the eye and teased him about Armenia having "too much democracy," even lecturing him on how they hold fair elections "twice a year." 1/4

From bragging that social media is "100% free" (a pointed jab at Putin’s total ban of social media and recent crackdown on Telegram in favor of the state-run "Max" messenger), to pointing out the lack of political prisoners, it was a bold and very public distancing from Moscow's playbook. 2/4

With the June 2026 elections looming, Armenia is at a historic crossroads.

Join us at the NEST Centre for our Midweek Briefing as we welcome @Tom_deWaal, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Europe and the leading Caucasus expert, to break down what Armenia truly means for Russia today. 3/4

Read 4 tweets

Mikhail Khodorkovsky

@khodorkovsky_en

Mar 31

The generation of Europeans who understood Russia is gone.

The knowledge gap they left behind is now being filled by disinformation — and the Kremlin is exploiting it.

Here's what Europe must do before it's too late: 🧵[1/7]

Europe is moving, steadily and predictably, toward a cold war with Russia. This is not a question of rhetoric or political mood, but of structural reality.

The Kremlin is already testing Europe's cohesion, and without a clear demonstration of readiness, those tests will intensify.

[2/7]

The next six months are crucial. Ireland, as it assumes the EU presidency, will need to take a leading role.

[3/7]

Read 7 tweets

Mikhail Khodorkovsky

@khodorkovsky_en

Mar 26

Putin's most powerful weapon in this war isn't the Oreshnik missile.

It is something far cheaper and infinitely more scalable: lies.

🧵Shameless lies literally capture cities — here're some examples:

The Russian military has a term for this: "capturing a settlement on credit."

They report the victory on Telegram and TV now and plan to achieve it "someday." This way, the same town can be "taken" over and over, for example, General Kuzovlev "captured" Kupiansk twice in two months.

[2/14]militarnyi.com/en/news/gerasi…

As a visual proof for these premature "captures," there is a field maneuver called "flagovtyk" — a squad plants a flag in a destroyed village, photographs it, and reports it "liberated."

The whole operation is just content creation.

[3/14]

Read 14 tweets

Mikhail Khodorkovsky

@khodorkovsky_en

Mar 24

We already knew the Kremlin was sending men to die in Ukraine.

But a new @dossier_center investigation based on leaked military records shows it's far worse than anyone imagined. For soldiers in front-line assault units, the odds of surviving the war are approaching zero.

(Read on)

According to internal documents, more than 28,000 soldiers were assigned to a single Russian division in 2024. Its full wartime strength should not exceed 14,000.

That means roughly a whole division's worth of personnel was lost in one year — killed, wounded beyond return, captured, or missing.

[2/12]

This unit has been at the front line since April 2024 and has never been withdrawn for rest or reconstitution. Instead, it is sustained by a constant inflow of new recruits from across Russia, sent directly into assault groups to replace the dead. They die. They are replaced. The cycle continues.

[3/12]

Read 12 tweets

Mikhail Khodorkovsky

@khodorkovsky_en

Mar 21

The Iran war is expected to bring Putin an extra $4.5 billion in April alone. That buys him time in Ukraine, but it does not buy him a breakthrough.

Here's why: 🧵[1/6]

Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz removed a substantial share of global oil supply from the market, and demand for Russian crude rose sharply. At the same time, higher energy prices complicate the task for Western governments trying to maintain strict sanctions.

[2/6]

This escalation stalled the negotiating process, slowed EU decision-making, and strengthened those who argue for a "pause" in supporting Ukraine. The war has also intensified competition for the same limited stocks of air defence systems and ammunition.

[3/6]

Read 6 tweets

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