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Mikhail Khodorkovsky

@khodorkovsky_en

Mar 26

Putin's most powerful weapon in this war isn't the Oreshnik missile.

It is something far cheaper and infinitely more scalable: lies.

🧵Shameless lies literally capture cities — here're some examples:

The Russian military has a term for this: "capturing a settlement on credit."

They report the victory on Telegram and TV now and plan to achieve it "someday." This way, the same town can be "taken" over and over, for example, General Kuzovlev "captured" Kupiansk twice in two months.

[2/14]militarnyi.com/en/news/gerasi…

As a visual proof for these premature "captures," there is a field maneuver called "flagovtyk" — a squad plants a flag in a destroyed village, photographs it, and reports it "liberated."

The whole operation is just content creation.

[3/14]

Read 14 tweets

Mikhail Khodorkovsky

@khodorkovsky_en

Mar 24

We already knew the Kremlin was sending men to die in Ukraine.

But a new @dossier_center investigation based on leaked military records shows it's far worse than anyone imagined. For soldiers in front-line assault units, the odds of surviving the war are approaching zero.

(Read on)

According to internal documents, more than 28,000 soldiers were assigned to a single Russian division in 2024. Its full wartime strength should not exceed 14,000.

That means roughly a whole division's worth of personnel was lost in one year — killed, wounded beyond return, captured, or missing.

[2/12]

This unit has been at the front line since April 2024 and has never been withdrawn for rest or reconstitution. Instead, it is sustained by a constant inflow of new recruits from across Russia, sent directly into assault groups to replace the dead. They die. They are replaced. The cycle continues.

[3/12]

Read 12 tweets

Mikhail Khodorkovsky

@khodorkovsky_en

Mar 21

The Iran war is expected to bring Putin an extra $4.5 billion in April alone. That buys him time in Ukraine, but it does not buy him a breakthrough.

Here's why: 🧵[1/6]

Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz removed a substantial share of global oil supply from the market, and demand for Russian crude rose sharply. At the same time, higher energy prices complicate the task for Western governments trying to maintain strict sanctions.

[2/6]

This escalation stalled the negotiating process, slowed EU decision-making, and strengthened those who argue for a "pause" in supporting Ukraine. The war has also intensified competition for the same limited stocks of air defence systems and ammunition.

[3/6]

Read 6 tweets

Mikhail Khodorkovsky

@khodorkovsky_en

Mar 20

Starlink terminals on the Russian front are now just expensive dinner tables.

@elonmusk shut off every unregistered device — and it turns out the entire Russian military machine ran on an American commercial product.

(🧵Read on)

In this war, internet drives the entire war machine on both sides.

Command posts look like a cross between a gamer's room — with dozens of screens streaming drone feeds, coordinating artillery in real time.

[2/12]

Small groups, drones, and real-time coordination determine the difference between life and death. Whoever detects the enemy first and relays coordinates to a drone operator fastest — survives. The chain works when there's internet.

[3/12]

Read 12 tweets

Mikhail Khodorkovsky

@khodorkovsky_en

Mar 19

Ilya Remeslo filed the complaint that put Navalny on trial.

Then testified against him in a prison courtroom.

[1/16] 🧵Yesterday, he went on Telegram and called Putin a war criminal who must resign and face trial

Remeslo is a 42-year-old pro-Kremlin blogger. Since at least 2015, he has filed complaints, written denunciations, and helped block opposition websites. He was not adjacent to the Kremlin's machinery — he was part of it.

[2/16]

There's been an established financial trail between him and the Kremlin: ~10 million rubles a year from entities linked to Konstantin Kostin, former head of internal politics at the presidential administration. Kostin ran anti-opposition smear campaigns funded, according to investigators, with Kremlin black cash.

[3/16]proekt.media/en/guide-en/pu…

Read 16 tweets

Mikhail Khodorkovsky

@khodorkovsky_en

Mar 13

The West spent four years building an energy strategy to make Putin irrelevant.

A war in Iran could collapse it in months — not by restoring Russian supply, but by proving the alternative is just as fragile. (🧵Read on — 1/13)

When Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, he committed a strategic error that had nothing to do with the battlefield. He demonstrated to every European buyer that Russia was an unreliable energy supplier.

[2/13] eia.gov/todayinenergy/…

Europe responded by cutting dependence on Russian oil and gas. New LNG routes, Gulf suppliers, diversified pipelines — four years of infrastructure built to ensure the continent would never again be vulnerable to Putin's use of energy as a weapon.

[3/13]consilium.europa.eu/en/infographic…

Read 13 tweets

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