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Mikhail Khodorkovsky

@khodorkovsky_en

Mar 21

The Iran war is expected to bring Putin an extra $4.5 billion in April alone. That buys him time in Ukraine, but it does not buy him a breakthrough.

Here's why: 🧵[1/6]

Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz removed a substantial share of global oil supply from the market, and demand for Russian crude rose sharply. At the same time, higher energy prices complicate the task for Western governments trying to maintain strict sanctions.

[2/6]

This escalation stalled the negotiating process, slowed EU decision-making, and strengthened those who argue for a "pause" in supporting Ukraine. The war has also intensified competition for the same limited stocks of air defence systems and ammunition.

[3/6]

Read 6 tweets

Mikhail Khodorkovsky

@khodorkovsky_en

Mar 20

Starlink terminals on the Russian front are now just expensive dinner tables.

@elonmusk shut off every unregistered device — and it turns out the entire Russian military machine ran on an American commercial product.

(🧵Read on)

In this war, internet drives the entire war machine on both sides.

Command posts look like a cross between a gamer's room — with dozens of screens streaming drone feeds, coordinating artillery in real time.

[2/12]

Small groups, drones, and real-time coordination determine the difference between life and death. Whoever detects the enemy first and relays coordinates to a drone operator fastest — survives. The chain works when there's internet.

[3/12]

Read 12 tweets

Mikhail Khodorkovsky

@khodorkovsky_en

Mar 19

Ilya Remeslo filed the complaint that put Navalny on trial.

Then testified against him in a prison courtroom.

[1/16] 🧵Yesterday, he went on Telegram and called Putin a war criminal who must resign and face trial

Remeslo is a 42-year-old pro-Kremlin blogger. Since at least 2015, he has filed complaints, written denunciations, and helped block opposition websites. He was not adjacent to the Kremlin's machinery — he was part of it.

[2/16]

There's been an established financial trail between him and the Kremlin: ~10 million rubles a year from entities linked to Konstantin Kostin, former head of internal politics at the presidential administration. Kostin ran anti-opposition smear campaigns funded, according to investigators, with Kremlin black cash.

[3/16]proekt.media/en/guide-en/pu…

Read 16 tweets

Mikhail Khodorkovsky

@khodorkovsky_en

Mar 13

The West spent four years building an energy strategy to make Putin irrelevant.

A war in Iran could collapse it in months — not by restoring Russian supply, but by proving the alternative is just as fragile. (🧵Read on — 1/13)

When Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, he committed a strategic error that had nothing to do with the battlefield. He demonstrated to every European buyer that Russia was an unreliable energy supplier.

[2/13] eia.gov/todayinenergy/…

Europe responded by cutting dependence on Russian oil and gas. New LNG routes, Gulf suppliers, diversified pipelines — four years of infrastructure built to ensure the continent would never again be vulnerable to Putin's use of energy as a weapon.

[3/13]consilium.europa.eu/en/infographic…

Read 13 tweets

Mikhail Khodorkovsky

@khodorkovsky_en

Mar 13

Journalists have exposed Center 795 — Russia's newest assassination unit.

It was caught because one of its officers used Google Translate to talk to a hired killer, and did so under the watchful eye of the FBI. 🧵[1/12]

Center 795 was created in December 2022 after Unit 29155, the GRU squad behind the Skripal poisoning and the Montenegro coup attempt, was exposed.

Investigators identified officers by name, by photo, and even by their passports, which had been issued with consecutive numbers.

[2/12]

Moscow did not try to fix the old unit but built a new one instead. Center 795 was set up as Military Unit 75127 and placed inside Kalashnikov Concern, the arms manufacturer. Its roughly 500 officers are listed on the company payroll as regular employees.

[3/12]

Read 12 tweets

Mikhail Khodorkovsky

@khodorkovsky_en

Mar 12

iPods now cost up to $7000 in Moscow — when your music streaming dies mid-commute because there is no mobile signal, you need one.

🧵The center of the capital has had no mobile internet for an entire week. [1/9]

Mobile internet across the center of Moscow stopped working on March 6. At first, a handful of government-approved sites still loaded: public services, state railways, VKontakte. By March 12, six days into the blackout, nothing opens at all, with or without a VPN.

[2/9]

Without a mobile signal, arriving passengers at train stations have no way to compare taxi fares. Drivers outside the stations know this and charge five times the app price. A sixty-year-old woman stops strangers asking for directions because her map app shows a blank grid.

[3/9]

Read 9 tweets

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