Svatove
The AFU repulsed an attack in the area of Stel'makhivka.
Mainly positional battels in this area. No significant change for the last weeks.
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Bilohorivka and Vyimka. Fighting is ongoing in the Kreminna-Dibrova direction. Satellite images indicates previous mentions of attacks in the area of Shypylivka was most likely RuAF trying to advance in to the grey area along the river.
A BMPT was destroyed just north of the river in the Bilohorivka area, around the area marked by magenta circle in previous tweet.
The intentions of RuAF in this area is to force a UA retreat from Sivers'k and improve positions for a future attack on Slovyansk.
Bakhmut
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Fedorivka, Bakhmut, Krasna Hora, Paraskoviivka, Ivanivske and Chasiv Yar.
Continued efforts by RuAF to advance towards the M03 and T-0504 roads north and south of Bakhmut. I believe the attacks around Zaliznyans'ke have been limited
RuAF have most likely not been able to establish positions in the Zaliznyans'ke area.
I do not believe RuAF have reached the T-0504 road in the Ivanivske area yet, it seems like fights are ongoing a few km south of the road and the town. I believe the mention of Chasiv Yar has to do with the fights being closer to the town limits which screeches pretty far south.
Image from 20230208 of Ivanivske. Shelling gives a clear indication of how far RuAF have advanced south of the town. I do not think they have moved very far the last week.
Avdiivka
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Novokalynove, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Vesele, Krasnohorivka and Avdiivka. RuAF had minor progress in the Vodyane area recently, I believe they will try to progress north -> Orlivka to be able to affect the Avdiivka supply route.
The Bakhmut situation looks about the same as the Avdiivka situation, which makes me look a little bit more positive on the Bakhmut defense. RuAF have been trying to encircle Avdiivka
for years without success.
Vuhledar
The AFU repulsed attacks the area of Marinka, Prechystivka and Bohoyavlenka. I've asked around, and no one seems to have an explanation for the Bohoyavlenka mystery.
After the 72nd Brigade caused extreme losses to 40th and 155th Naval Infantry brigade, RuAF moved on to decimated their 3rd Army Corps, which now also have suffered huge losses in both manpower and equipment.
Video h/t @Deepstate_UA
Vuhledar overview 20230209
I believe AFU holds the blue areas while RuAF are trying o advance along the red arrows. Without success I might add.
🧵The situation in Vovchansk is interesting. The map shows geolocated positions the last 8 days h/t @UAControlMap. When the first rumors about an encirclement at the aggregate plant, I thought it was BS. But it appears there is some truth to it, supposedly 83rd VDV.
The extent of isolation and the amount of people is unclear. Once interesting thing is the Russians committed one of their best units, 2nd Special Purpose Brigade to fight in the town. We have mostly seen poorly trained and equipped units without mechanized support in this fight
According to RU channels UA withdrew from the Filtration Plant in the east and Zenith in the south. This is good news, since avoiding an encirclement should be a priority at this point. It seems the coke plant and Kvartal high-rises are the current UA strongholds.
RU forces continue to try to fully encircle Avdiivka pushing mainly from 3 directions.
It remains to be seen if Ukraine are planning to withdraw from the east side of the city, but I think it's a pretty good idea to do so.
UA might chose to fight for the coke plant and Kvartal for a bit, but the gap for the gloc is only 3km and consists of 2 windbreaks.
I frequently get questions like:
"Are you ok?"
"What happened?"
"Why did you stop posting?"
So here we go⬇️
Yes I'm ok.
(This post is sponsored by Ramzan Fragglerov)
Time.
I have less time to follow Ukraine. I usually spent about 3-4 hours a day to just make my daily threads and going through all the information channels. To be able to keep the information reliable, I have to put in 6-10h per day. I dont have that kind of time anymore.
I lost my best friend in March, so I had go get a new one. He is getting a lot of my attention now.
🧵During the last week, Ukrainian forces have advanced 32km2 in the Robotyne direction. They are expanding their penetration of the Surovikin and have reached the outskirts of Verbove and Verbove.