Svatove
The AFU repulsed an attack in the area of Stel'makhivka.
Mainly positional battels in this area. No significant change for the last weeks.
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Bilohorivka and Vyimka. Fighting is ongoing in the Kreminna-Dibrova direction. Satellite images indicates previous mentions of attacks in the area of Shypylivka was most likely RuAF trying to advance in to the grey area along the river.
A BMPT was destroyed just north of the river in the Bilohorivka area, around the area marked by magenta circle in previous tweet.
The intentions of RuAF in this area is to force a UA retreat from Sivers'k and improve positions for a future attack on Slovyansk.
Bakhmut
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Fedorivka, Bakhmut, Krasna Hora, Paraskoviivka, Ivanivske and Chasiv Yar.
Continued efforts by RuAF to advance towards the M03 and T-0504 roads north and south of Bakhmut. I believe the attacks around Zaliznyans'ke have been limited
RuAF have most likely not been able to establish positions in the Zaliznyans'ke area.
I do not believe RuAF have reached the T-0504 road in the Ivanivske area yet, it seems like fights are ongoing a few km south of the road and the town. I believe the mention of Chasiv Yar has to do with the fights being closer to the town limits which screeches pretty far south.
Image from 20230208 of Ivanivske. Shelling gives a clear indication of how far RuAF have advanced south of the town. I do not think they have moved very far the last week.
Avdiivka
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Novokalynove, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Vesele, Krasnohorivka and Avdiivka. RuAF had minor progress in the Vodyane area recently, I believe they will try to progress north -> Orlivka to be able to affect the Avdiivka supply route.
The Bakhmut situation looks about the same as the Avdiivka situation, which makes me look a little bit more positive on the Bakhmut defense. RuAF have been trying to encircle Avdiivka
for years without success.
Vuhledar
The AFU repulsed attacks the area of Marinka, Prechystivka and Bohoyavlenka. I've asked around, and no one seems to have an explanation for the Bohoyavlenka mystery.
After the 72nd Brigade caused extreme losses to 40th and 155th Naval Infantry brigade, RuAF moved on to decimated their 3rd Army Corps, which now also have suffered huge losses in both manpower and equipment.
Video h/t @Deepstate_UA
Vuhledar overview 20230209
I believe AFU holds the blue areas while RuAF are trying o advance along the red arrows. Without success I might add.
The reason the confidence is low, is a lack of data. They simply dont have enough information to know yet. Desplite that, the US President proclaims complete destruction, an assesment likely based more on his whishes than any intelligence.
Furthermore, they are trying to supress any discussion about this and might actually prevent the DIA to do their job properly, they know a negative report will not be precieved well by the White House.
Hegseth also tells a story which does not align with reality. We have all seen the pictures. There isnt a mountain of rubble. Hegseth says he have seen it all, and i wonder if it was during his time as prison guard or if it was during his time as a instructor?
I have seen speculations about some of the HEU and centrifuges being moved to the new underground facilities (UGF) south west of Natanz main compound. I do not belive this is the case, I think the tunnel complex to the SW of the main facility is unfinished. Here is why
The main compound is secured by at least five layers of fencing and walls, with three checkpoints required to enter the facility.
Compare this to the new UGF complex to the SW.
Only two tunnels have extra fencing, the wall and fencing around it is incomplete. There are clear sings of construction work going in near the tunnel entrances.
A lot of people are asking what we see in this image.
The two orange circles show where the impacts were, 3 holes at each circle making it 6 in total. There is no other visible damage.
Image from @michaelh992
Since last fall, Russia have increased their effort to build shelters for aircrafts. I have identified 14 localtion where they have build or are building shelters.
Kirovske
45.1709, 35.1761
10 U shaped walls, no roof.
Engels AirBase
51.49953, 46.23520
Construction recently started, ground work for 10 shelters.