Today's newsletter is about the problem at the center of everything I've written -that private and public markets have become entirely focused on company growth over all else, stagnating innovation and creating a constant binge and purge of human capital.
When Meta went all-in on the metaverse, Wall St. savaged them for it, but once Zuckerberg fired 10,000 people, Meta's stock pumped, because the street saw this as a "cost-cutting measure" that would boost revenue, despite the company fundamentally *worse* ez.substack.com/p/the-rot-econ…
Google ruined Google Search by monetizing every single facet of the product, they lose money on the cloud, and they have regularly trailed almost every industry they're in. But Sundar Pichai won't be fired, because he's making stockholders and CNBC happy. ez.substack.com/p/the-rot-econ…
The markets do not prioritize innovation, or sustainable growth, or stable, profitable enterprises. As a result, companies regularly do not function with the intent of making “good” businesses. Just look at Uber, which has never made a god damn profit. ez.substack.com/p/the-rot-econ…
This is why we see massive hiring/layoff cycles - because companies aren't punished for being unsustainable or bad at business. Why else would Satya Nadella be able to talk about a "referendum on capitalism" in 2020 and then fire 10,000 people in 2023? ez.substack.com/p/the-rot-econ…
Venture Capital is even more noxious, incentivized to create businesses that *look* valuable with the hopes they can go public or exit before the non-businesses they fund go kaput. They aren't "good" companies - they're assets to be sold for a profit. ez.substack.com/p/the-rot-econ…
Why do you think A16Z pumped so much into Web3? Because they aren't interested in "building" - they wanted the quickest possible road from investment to liquidity. They found, albeit briefly, a way to skip from "idea" to "exit," a perfect rot system. ez.substack.com/p/the-rot-econ…
Adam Neumann is the king of symbolic capital - a guy who took WeWork from $47bn to $2.9bn, who raised $350m for a real estate company he can't describe. He is a terrible businessman, but resembles a Guy Who Can Make A Company Sell, even if he hasn't. ez.substack.com/p/the-rot-econ…
Because the markets in particular prioritize growth over all else - such as making a profit or having a sustainable business - VCs will cram hundreds of millions into zombie-companies that burn money until they can be sold or dumped into the stock market. ez.substack.com/p/the-rot-econ…
Growth is a fire, and we, societally, have turned our markets and businesses - private and public - over to arsonists. We have created conditions where we celebrate people for making “big” companies but not “good” companies. It is cancerous to progress.
As long as companies like Microsoft and Google are rewarded for constantly burning cash and human capital, they will keep mass-hiring and firing, because the street sees people as assets. As long as VCs are rewarded for gambling, innovation will suffer. ez.substack.com/p/the-rot-econ…
This is the problem at the center of almost everything I’ve written. The incentives of running a business publicly or otherwise are aligned with endless growth. Good companies don't do mass layoffs, and don't destroy products for profit. ez.substack.com/p/the-rot-econ…
Overhiring Mass layoffs aren't a problem for the street, because unsustainable and reckless abuse of human capital is considered a necessary cost to increase the value of a stock. A "good company" can be run badly if the numbers keep going up. ez.substack.com/p/the-rot-econ…
Premium: The AI Bubble is a time bomb, burdening hyperscalers with billions of new depreciation a quarter that will soon eat away profits, VCs with dead equity in fallen AI startups, and Oracle with hundreds of billions of unpayable leases. wheresyoured.at/premium-timebo…
A year ago, I wrote that Coreweave was a timebomb — a rickety tower of debt and bad deals that was primed to blow.
I could have made that argument about hyperscalers, NVIDIA and OpenAI. Everybody is waiting for somebody else to make AI a success.
The AI bubble is slowly turning cash-rich, margin-heavy hyperscalers into something far worse. Now these asset-light, high-margin software companies are becoming bloated, filled with tens of billions of dollars in GPUs and data centers. wheresyoured.at/premium-timebo…
Final 2025 Newsetter: We're in The Enshittifinancial Crisis, the fourth stage of enshittification, where companies turn on their shareholders. Unprofitable, unsustainable AI threatens future of venture capital, private equity and the markets themselves. wheresyoured.at/the-enshittifi…
Enshittification's first 3 stages - from a platform people love to a platform businesses profit off of to a platform that hurts consumers and businesses alike - are well-known. I argue we're in a fourth stage where stocks have become enshittified too. wheresyoured.at/the-enshittifi…
We’re bearing witness to the enshittification of the stock market, where toxic companies appreciate in value despite their toxicity, recklessness and waste, aided and abetted by analysts who not only ignore the toxicity but actively celebrate it.
Premium: How The AI Bubble bursts in 2026 - The largest funder of AI data centers is pulling out, OpenAI and Anthropic need more money than ever during a massive VC liquidity crisis - and NVIDIA's debt-powered customer base is quietly shrinking. wheresyoured.at/premium-how-th…
The AI bubble is reaching its peak, with the largest data center funder (Blue Owl) walking away from a $10bn deal with Oracle, just as Broadcom gets pummeled post-earnings for showing no revenue from OpenAI, and CoreWeave fails to build capacity in time. wheresyoured.at/premium-how-th…
The real OpenAI scandal is what's *not* happening - Broadcom said it expects "no revenue" in 2026 from its supposed 10GW chips deal, and AMD, Samsung and SK Hynix, despite signing massive deals, haven't changed earnings. These announcements were a sham. wheresyoured.at/premium-how-th…
Premium newsletter: Based on my analysis, OpenAI needs one trillion dollars in the next four years to build 17GW of data centers and other commitments, with at least $500 billion needed for company operations. There's not enough capital to fund it.
I spoke with analyst Gil Luria at D.A. Davidson, asking if the capital existed to build OpenAI's promised 17GW of data centers: "Of course there isn't enough capital for all of this," but "enough capital to do this for a at least a little while longer."
Between NVIDIA and Oracle, OpenAI has now committed to 17 gigawatts of AI data center capacity, and to be clear, it takes about 2.5 gigawatts and more than $32.5 billion per gigawatt. There is no way these data centers actually get completed before 2028. wheresyoured.at/openai-onetril…
Newsletter: Microsoft pulled back on over a gigawatt of planned data center capacity, suggesting that they do not think there is a growth future in generative AI. SoftBank, the only one that can afford to fund OpenAI, has to take out loans to do so. wheresyoured.at/power-cut/
Last week analyst TD Cowen said Microsoft had canceled two data center leases - "a couple hundred MWs" of capacity. Most missed a detail - that Microsoft had let over 1GW of Letters of Intent expire, equivalent to as much as of 14% current capacity. wheresyoured.at/power-cut/
Data center buildouts take 3-6 years, especially with high MW/GW projects. Microsoft - the largest purchaser of NVIDIA GPUs in 2024 - appears to be cutting data center expansion at a time when generative AI is meant to be the future. This is concerning. wheresyoured.at/power-cut/
Newsletter: Blame the tech industry for the rise of authoritarianism. Blame a news media handicapped by a deference to power and a fear of bias. Blame the fact that our digital lives are unchecked ecological disasters.
Why are we surprised that people don’t trust the media after years of them telling regular people that the economy is good, that their problems aren’t real, that the things that make them suffer are in their heads - and it's their fault things suck? wheresyoured.at/lost-in-the-fu…
Why would people trust a legacy media that treats workers like disobedient dogs that “quiet quit” when they went to work and did the job they were hired to do? Why would they trust a legacy media that critiques workers far more than the powerful?