Today's newsletter is about the problem at the center of everything I've written -that private and public markets have become entirely focused on company growth over all else, stagnating innovation and creating a constant binge and purge of human capital.
When Meta went all-in on the metaverse, Wall St. savaged them for it, but once Zuckerberg fired 10,000 people, Meta's stock pumped, because the street saw this as a "cost-cutting measure" that would boost revenue, despite the company fundamentally *worse* ez.substack.com/p/the-rot-econ…
Google ruined Google Search by monetizing every single facet of the product, they lose money on the cloud, and they have regularly trailed almost every industry they're in. But Sundar Pichai won't be fired, because he's making stockholders and CNBC happy. ez.substack.com/p/the-rot-econ…
The markets do not prioritize innovation, or sustainable growth, or stable, profitable enterprises. As a result, companies regularly do not function with the intent of making “good” businesses. Just look at Uber, which has never made a god damn profit. ez.substack.com/p/the-rot-econ…
This is why we see massive hiring/layoff cycles - because companies aren't punished for being unsustainable or bad at business. Why else would Satya Nadella be able to talk about a "referendum on capitalism" in 2020 and then fire 10,000 people in 2023? ez.substack.com/p/the-rot-econ…
Venture Capital is even more noxious, incentivized to create businesses that *look* valuable with the hopes they can go public or exit before the non-businesses they fund go kaput. They aren't "good" companies - they're assets to be sold for a profit. ez.substack.com/p/the-rot-econ…
Why do you think A16Z pumped so much into Web3? Because they aren't interested in "building" - they wanted the quickest possible road from investment to liquidity. They found, albeit briefly, a way to skip from "idea" to "exit," a perfect rot system. ez.substack.com/p/the-rot-econ…
Adam Neumann is the king of symbolic capital - a guy who took WeWork from $47bn to $2.9bn, who raised $350m for a real estate company he can't describe. He is a terrible businessman, but resembles a Guy Who Can Make A Company Sell, even if he hasn't. ez.substack.com/p/the-rot-econ…
Because the markets in particular prioritize growth over all else - such as making a profit or having a sustainable business - VCs will cram hundreds of millions into zombie-companies that burn money until they can be sold or dumped into the stock market. ez.substack.com/p/the-rot-econ…
Growth is a fire, and we, societally, have turned our markets and businesses - private and public - over to arsonists. We have created conditions where we celebrate people for making “big” companies but not “good” companies. It is cancerous to progress.
As long as companies like Microsoft and Google are rewarded for constantly burning cash and human capital, they will keep mass-hiring and firing, because the street sees people as assets. As long as VCs are rewarded for gambling, innovation will suffer. ez.substack.com/p/the-rot-econ…
This is the problem at the center of almost everything I’ve written. The incentives of running a business publicly or otherwise are aligned with endless growth. Good companies don't do mass layoffs, and don't destroy products for profit. ez.substack.com/p/the-rot-econ…
Overhiring Mass layoffs aren't a problem for the street, because unsustainable and reckless abuse of human capital is considered a necessary cost to increase the value of a stock. A "good company" can be run badly if the numbers keep going up. ez.substack.com/p/the-rot-econ…
Newsletter: Microsoft pulled back on over a gigawatt of planned data center capacity, suggesting that they do not think there is a growth future in generative AI. SoftBank, the only one that can afford to fund OpenAI, has to take out loans to do so. wheresyoured.at/power-cut/
Last week analyst TD Cowen said Microsoft had canceled two data center leases - "a couple hundred MWs" of capacity. Most missed a detail - that Microsoft had let over 1GW of Letters of Intent expire, equivalent to as much as of 14% current capacity. wheresyoured.at/power-cut/
Data center buildouts take 3-6 years, especially with high MW/GW projects. Microsoft - the largest purchaser of NVIDIA GPUs in 2024 - appears to be cutting data center expansion at a time when generative AI is meant to be the future. This is concerning. wheresyoured.at/power-cut/
Newsletter: Blame the tech industry for the rise of authoritarianism. Blame a news media handicapped by a deference to power and a fear of bias. Blame the fact that our digital lives are unchecked ecological disasters.
Why are we surprised that people don’t trust the media after years of them telling regular people that the economy is good, that their problems aren’t real, that the things that make them suffer are in their heads - and it's their fault things suck? wheresyoured.at/lost-in-the-fu…
Why would people trust a legacy media that treats workers like disobedient dogs that “quiet quit” when they went to work and did the job they were hired to do? Why would they trust a legacy media that critiques workers far more than the powerful?
Newsletter: Microsoft is a cult driven by “The Growth Mindset,” a psuedo-science that informs recruitment, hiring, firing and promotion decisions, all while instructing employees and managers to generate performance reviews using hallucination-prone AI.
When Satya Nadella took over Microsoft, he rebuilt their culture around a flimsy psuedo-science called 'The Growth Mindset" that drives company decision-making in everything from how products are sold, to how your on-the-job performance is judged. wheresyoured.at/the-cult-of-mi…
When Satya Nadella took over, he instituted a cult-like focus on the Growth Mindset, and Microsoft employees were directly instructed in internal presentations to hype his book "Hit Refresh" to customers and partners - making it a bestseller as a result. wheresyoured.at/the-cult-of-mi…
Newsletter: OpenAI is a bad, unprofitable business, with most of its revenue coming from premium subscriptions, and only 27% ($1bn) coming from people licensing its technology, suggesting that the generative AI industry is much smaller than we thought. wheresyoured.at/oai-business/
In the last week, OpenAI has lost their CTO and Chief Research Officer, all while trying to raise a $6.5bn+ round for a firm that loses $5bn/yr. They're so desperate they're raising from SoftBank, a VC famous for losing billions on terrible investments. wheresyoured.at/oai-business/
Yet there’s far more to worry about with OpenAI. The New York Times reported last week that the company will bring in $3.7bn of revenue in 2024, yet lose $5bn. In short, OpenAI spends $2.35 to make $1 - and growth is already slowing down. wheresyoured.at/oai-business/
Newsletter: The tech industry has its own growing commercial real estate bubble - the Software As A Service market is in decline, over-leveraging unprofitable generative AI in a desperate - and failing - attempt to restart growth...but it isn't working. wheresyoured.at/saaspocalypse-…
The silent, powerful market-driver of the tech industry is the Software-As-A-Service (SaaS) industry, where swaths of the economy have outsourced their infrastructure to the cloud. Its core business model is making you trade convenience for freedom.
SaaS, while not inherently bad, has become synonymous with selling organizations “ecosystems” of products, and getting them to commit resources to customizing suites of mediocre apps - a sunk cost that makes it difficult to move even if they hate it. wheresyoured.at/saaspocalypse-…
Newsletter: A subprime AI crisis is brewing. Most of the tech industry has bought into a technology sold at a discounted rate, heavily-subsidized by big tech. If it collapses, the cascade effect could savage both startups and public companies alike. wheresyoured.at/subprimeai/
OpenAI is untenable. They're raising $6.5 billion at a $150 billion valuation for a company that burns $5+bn a year, and are so desperate for money that they’re both trying to get rid of their non-profit designation *and* raise from the middle east. wheresyoured.at/subprimeai/
To invest in OpenAI, you have to sign a document calling your money a donation and acknowledge that they may never make a profit - and your investment is actually a "profit participation unit"...promising a share of future theoretical profits. What a con! wheresyoured.at/subprimeai/