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Ed Zitron Profile picture
Ed Zitron
@edzitron
Newsletter https://t.co/D5qDgUKaNR - Better Offline Podcast - https://t.co/pUoGsuaQTw - CEO at https://t.co/5idt8AyPqr
Jul 15 • 25 tweets • 19 min read
Free newsletter: The OpenAI Bubble, my comprehensive, 15k word thesis about why the AI Bubble and the AI Trade were inflated by OpenAI and can't exist without it, who will be the victims of the bubble bursting, and how we can stop it from happening again.
wheresyoured.at/the-openai-bub… We start with a question: How much do you trust Sam Altman? The stock market and (to some extent) the global economy rests on your answer, because the majority of the world's compute demand and AI revenues flow from OpenAI, and won't exist without it.

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Jun 30 • 17 tweets • 12 min read
Today's newsletter is about how the AI industry is losing - its economics don't work, its leaders can only sell its product through swindling and egregious forward-looking statements, and the largest financial institutions in the world are wising up.
wheresyoured.at/the-ai-industr… On Sunday, the Bank of International Settlements published a report about the health of the global economy, agreeing with me on the systemic risk posed by the data center overbuild, and how hyperscalers cutting capex will cause big downstream problems.
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Jun 8 • 12 tweets • 8 min read
Free newsletter: The ROI debate has come at worst time for Anthropic and OpenAI - two companies that can’t afford to slow down thanks to their $1.1 trillion in compute commitments and a data center buildout that needs a trillion in annual revenue by 2030.
wheresyoured.at/ai-is-slowing-… My appearance on Bloomberg last week ruffled some feathers because I don't have "skin in the game" (IE: money in the market). This is because AI boosters can't imagine somebody with a moral position on an industry run by grifters and sold with lies.
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Jun 2 • 14 tweets • 10 min read
Free newsletter: The dawn of token-based billing has shown that generative AI doesn’t have a return on investment. It's too unpredictable, too unreliable, you can't easily measure the cost of tasks, and organizations are already pulling back.
wheresyoured.at/ai-doesnt-have… Ever since the AI industry started its transition away from subscriptions to token-based billing, users have been hit with sticker shock. Once companies start paying the real cost of AI, they realize there's no measurable ROI to be found.

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May 15 • 15 tweets • 11 min read
Today’s premium newsletter is part 1 of my What If...We're In An AI Bubble? series, covering scenarios that could burst the bubble starting with token-based billing's destruction of most AI products, and the slow collapse of data center construction.
wheresyoured.at/premium-what-i… I’ve spent hundreds of thousands of words in the last year talking about the very and scary signs that we are an AI bubble, and the exuberance fueling it. Today is the first time in a long time where I’ve discussed the potential consequences in depth.

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Apr 28 • 13 tweets • 9 min read
Free newsletter: The economics of AI don't make sense. Monthly subscriptions to AI services are scams that represent a product that is impossible for OpenAI and Anthropic to provide long term, and AI data centers are an economic disaster at scale.
wheresyoured.at/ais-economics-… Github Copilot, as I reported last week, is moving towards token-based billing, charging the actual cost of token burn — a move that alienated many of its users who built entire workflows around a request-based product that no longer exists.
wheresyoured.at/ais-economics-…Yesterday morning, GitHub Copilot users got confirmation of something I’d reported a week ago — that all GitHub Copilot plans would move to usage-based pricing on June 1, 2026. Instead of offering users a certain number of “requests,” Microsoft will now charge users based on the actual cost of the models they’re using, which it calls “...an important step toward a sustainable, reliable Copilot business and experience for all users.” Users instead get however much they spend on their GitHub Copilot subscription (EG: $19 of tokens a month on a $19-a-month plan). Translation: "we canno...
While Copilot might not be “...the same product it was a year ago,” very little has changed about the underlying economic mismatch: that Microsoft was allowing users to burn more than their subscription costs in tokens every single month for three years. Per the Wall Street Journal in October 2023: Individuals pay $10 a month for the AI assistant. In the first few months of this year, the company was losing on average more than $20 a month per user, according to a person familiar with the figures, who said some users were costing the company as much as $80 a month. Naturally, GitHub Copil...
Apr 24 • 15 tweets • 10 min read
Premium Newsletter: OpenAI needs to raise or make $852 billion through 2030 to pay for its compute costs, and must pay $75bn a year for Oracle's 7.1GW of Stargate data centers, or Oracle will collapse, destroying its share price and Ellison's empire.
wheresyoured.at/how-openai-kil… It’s been little over a year since Sam Altman, Masayoshi Son, and Larry Ellison stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Donald Trump to announce the "$500 billion" Stargate data center project. In truth, no entity was ever formed, and no money was invested.
wheresyoured.at/how-openai-kil…It was January 21, 2025. Per The Information, Larry Ellison, CEO of Oracle, had just flown to Washington DC from Florida, and had to borrow a coat “...so he wouldn’t freeze during an interview he did on the White House lawn, according to two people who were involved in the event.” He was there to announce a very big — some might even say huge — new project standing next to SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. “Together, these world-leading technology giants are announcing the formation of Stargate, so put that name down in your books, because I think you’re gonna hear a lo...
After he was done, Ellison stepped to the podium. “The data centers are actually under construction, the first of them are under construction in Texas. Each building’s a half a million square feet, there are ten buildings currently being built, but that will expand to 20.” Following Ellison, SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son added that Stargate would “...immediately start deploying $100 billion dollars, with the goal of making $500 billion dollars within [the] next four years, within your town!” turning to Donald Trump with his hands extended. It was unclear what town he was referring to. Altman a...
Mar 9 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
$5 billion TO DATE? This heavily suggests that Anthropic? Over $10 billion in inference and training costs? This heavily suggests that almost every story about Anthropic’s revenue and costs they’ve leaked is wrong and that it’s been misleading the media. Remember: reports said Anthropic made $4.5bn for all of 2025, and all of this guff about “$19bn in annualized revenue” no longer make sense, especially as that “exceeds $5 billion” line is from a lawsuit filed in *march*. This is a scandal! Image
Jan 23 • 15 tweets • 9 min read
Premium: The AI Bubble is a time bomb, burdening hyperscalers with billions of new depreciation a quarter that will soon eat away profits, VCs with dead equity in fallen AI startups, and Oracle with hundreds of billions of unpayable leases.
wheresyoured.at/premium-timebo… A year ago, I wrote that Coreweave was a timebomb — a rickety tower of debt and bad deals that was primed to blow.
I could have made that argument about hyperscalers, NVIDIA and OpenAI. Everybody is waiting for somebody else to make AI a success.

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Dec 29, 2025 • 17 tweets • 12 min read
Final 2025 Newsetter: We're in The Enshittifinancial Crisis, the fourth stage of enshittification, where companies turn on their shareholders. Unprofitable, unsustainable AI threatens future of venture capital, private equity and the markets themselves.
wheresyoured.at/the-enshittifi… Enshittification's first 3 stages - from a platform people love to a platform businesses profit off of to a platform that hurts consumers and businesses alike - are well-known. I argue we're in a fourth stage where stocks have become enshittified too.
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Dec 22, 2025 • 14 tweets • 11 min read
Premium: How The AI Bubble bursts in 2026 - The largest funder of AI data centers is pulling out, OpenAI and Anthropic need more money than ever during a massive VC liquidity crisis - and NVIDIA's debt-powered customer base is quietly shrinking.
wheresyoured.at/premium-how-th… The AI bubble is reaching its peak, with the largest data center funder (Blue Owl) walking away from a $10bn deal with Oracle, just as Broadcom gets pummeled post-earnings for showing no revenue from OpenAI, and CoreWeave fails to build capacity in time.
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Sep 26, 2025 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
Premium newsletter: Based on my analysis, OpenAI needs one trillion dollars in the next four years to build 17GW of data centers and other commitments, with at least $500 billion needed for company operations. There's not enough capital to fund it.

wheresyoured.at/openai-onetril… I spoke with analyst Gil Luria at D.A. Davidson, asking if the capital existed to build OpenAI's promised 17GW of data centers: "Of course there isn't enough capital for all of this," but "enough capital to do this for a at least a little while longer."

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Mar 3, 2025 • 12 tweets • 9 min read
Newsletter: Microsoft pulled back on over a gigawatt of planned data center capacity, suggesting that they do not think there is a growth future in generative AI. SoftBank, the only one that can afford to fund OpenAI, has to take out loans to do so.
wheresyoured.at/power-cut/ Last week analyst TD Cowen said Microsoft had canceled two data center leases - "a couple hundred MWs" of capacity. Most missed a detail - that Microsoft had let over 1GW of Letters of Intent expire, equivalent to as much as of 14% current capacity.
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Nov 13, 2024 • 15 tweets • 9 min read
Newsletter: Blame the tech industry for the rise of authoritarianism. Blame a news media handicapped by a deference to power and a fear of bias. Blame the fact that our digital lives are unchecked ecological disasters.

Something must change.
wheresyoured.at/lost-in-the-fu… Why are we surprised that people don’t trust the media after years of them telling regular people that the economy is good, that their problems aren’t real, that the things that make them suffer are in their heads - and it's their fault things suck?
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Nov 1, 2024 • 14 tweets • 9 min read
Newsletter: Microsoft is a cult driven by “The Growth Mindset,” a psuedo-science that informs recruitment, hiring, firing and promotion decisions, all while instructing employees and managers to generate performance reviews using hallucination-prone AI.

wheresyoured.at/the-cult-of-mi… When Satya Nadella took over Microsoft, he rebuilt their culture around a flimsy psuedo-science called 'The Growth Mindset" that drives company decision-making in everything from how products are sold, to how your on-the-job performance is judged.
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Oct 2, 2024 • 16 tweets • 12 min read
Newsletter: OpenAI is a bad, unprofitable business, with most of its revenue coming from premium subscriptions, and only 27% ($1bn) coming from people licensing its technology, suggesting that the generative AI industry is much smaller than we thought.
wheresyoured.at/oai-business/ In the last week, OpenAI has lost their CTO and Chief Research Officer, all while trying to raise a $6.5bn+ round for a firm that loses $5bn/yr. They're so desperate they're raising from SoftBank, a VC famous for losing billions on terrible investments.
wheresyoured.at/oai-business/

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Sep 26, 2024 • 19 tweets • 13 min read
Newsletter: The tech industry has its own growing commercial real estate bubble - the Software As A Service market is in decline, over-leveraging unprofitable generative AI in a desperate - and failing - attempt to restart growth...but it isn't working.
wheresyoured.at/saaspocalypse-… The silent, powerful market-driver of the tech industry is the Software-As-A-Service (SaaS) industry, where swaths of the economy have outsourced their infrastructure to the cloud. Its core business model is making you trade convenience for freedom.

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Sep 16, 2024 • 16 tweets • 11 min read
Newsletter: A subprime AI crisis is brewing. Most of the tech industry has bought into a technology sold at a discounted rate, heavily-subsidized by big tech. If it collapses, the cascade effect could savage both startups and public companies alike.
wheresyoured.at/subprimeai/ OpenAI is untenable. They're raising $6.5 billion at a $150 billion valuation for a company that burns $5+bn a year, and are so desperate for money that they’re both trying to get rid of their non-profit designation *and* raise from the middle east.
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Aug 5, 2024 • 14 tweets • 11 min read
Newsletter: the AI bubble is close to bursting, with Big Tech losing $2 trillion in market cap as everybody wakes up to the mediocrity of generative AI. Here’s a comprehensive guide to how everything might fall apart - and how little time OpenAI has left.
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Image Last week was dire for the AI bubble, with Google, Microsoft and Amazon getting spanked for spending tens of billions of dollars on generative AI with little revenue to show for it, and on Friday, multiple media outlets ran a story on the bubble popping.
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Jul 29, 2024 • 15 tweets • 12 min read
Newsletter: Based on estimates of their burn rate and historic analyses, I hypothesize that OpenAI will collapse in the next 12-24 months unless it raises more funding than in the history of the valley and creates an entirely new form of AI.

wheresyoured.at/to-serve-altma… OpenAI as it stands cannot survive. To go longer than two years, it will have to raise more money than anyone has ever raised, and to go further will need productize a totally different technology to GPT, and reduce costs by thousands of percent.
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Jul 16, 2024 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
This week's newsletter: It's time to call BS on generative AI and demand that companies like OpenAI actually provide useful, helpful software, and actively reject the growing coterie of hucksters using AI as a marketing tool to get media headlines.
wheresyoured.at/put-up-or-shut… The tech industry is currently in the midst of the most bizarre cognitive dissonance I've ever seen — more so than the metaverse, even — as company after company simply lies about what's possible with the "power of AI."
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