Thread by @ProjectDomani

#ChinaSpyBalloon

1) Real-Time Detection

2) Rapid Review (~24 hours)

3) Post Event Forensics of Detections (High or Low Interest)

4) Search of Prior History
- Requires Narrowing of the Search Space by: Time, Location, and EM Signature

The Biden Regime was playing Political Games in the Liberal Media to "soften" the impact of the Failures with the #ChinaSpyBalloon

One method was to suggest this happened under the Trump Admin

The story shifted multiple times to control media cycles

The most recent version seems to be Un-Detected Events (under Trump) were recently discovered during a Search

The framing is we are better than Trump b/c we Detected this one and we found the ones that they missed

Are we constantly seeking to improve Detection Capabilities?
Yes.

Are we constantly seeking to improve Our Search and Post-Event Analysis?
Yes.

Are we better today than we were in 2019?
We should be.

Is it possible that a recent Forensic Search identified previously UN-Detected "patterns" that are consistent with a Spy Balloon profile?
Yes

Is this a big deal?
Yes.
It points to vulnerabilities in Real-Time Detection.
(we are very good -- but not perfect)

Would this recent Forensic Search have been a pure Brute Force Search without any additional info to NARROW the Search Space?
Likely NO.

Did we recently gain Intel to allow a better Search in terms of Time, Space, and EM Signature Pattern?
Maybe. (assuming they are not Lying)

In an ideal "God's Eye" world we would have Perfect Real-Time Detection that enables Rapid Intercept for further Threat Analysis that would Inform the THREAT Neutralization Counter-Measures

The Context of the Event will matter in terms of the Threshold to Take It Out

When we are on Heightened Alert the threshold to neutralize is LOWER

The challenge in 1st Strike War Gaming is to create an Opportunity for a Significant Impact with a Surprise Attack

This is often assumed to be during a LOW Alert Level (out of nowhere)

Other scenarios have a "cover" that enables a penetration despite a High Alert Status

Event Detection Failures are a Different Type of Problem than Event Response Failures

The Recent #ChinaSpyBalloon event seems to have been Detected AT LEAST 2 days prior to the Aleutian Air Space entry. (likely long before)

Once an Event is Detected there is a Series of Escalations & Decisions required

This Pacific Air Space Detection occurred during a time when there was a Heightened Level of Alert due to Russian Naval activity in the Atlantic

This is NOT a Time to Play "Clever" Games

Very Bad Decisions were made.

Some of these may have been made inside the Military Chain of Command.

And some of these may have been made as the issue escalated to WH NSC / Cabinet & Inter-Agency

An escalation to the President is the highest level.
ALL Presidents will have advisers to evaluate the situation and the OPTIONS.

The current reporting is this happened on January 31st (not 28th) -- Why?

Clearly there was NO Order to Shoot It DOWN.
Because that Order would be followed.

It is possible the Authority to Shoot It Down was Granted and that the Timing & Location would continue to be evaluated by Military (and WH NSC)

Why did they wait?

During the Obama era the Obama NSC was notorious for "micro-managing" as there was a Lack of Trust in the Military

Many claim the Biden Regime follows a similar pattern to Obama Admin, often with the SAME Bad People.

This Event was a Total F-cking SH-T SHOW and they have been "dancing" around trying to Spin Narratives to soften the impact of recent Media Cycles

The Current Bullshit =

1) This happens a lot. It is NOT a Big Deal. And we shot it down.

2) We were "clever" and will Collect Intelligence on it (both in air transit & after recoery)

3) Trump F-cked Up. He missed these things. And he did NOT shoot them down.

ALL of these Narratives are "Cover Your Ass" Bullshit

1) It is a Big F-cking Deal. Stratospheric Balloons with Large Payloads are a THREAT.

2) "Clever" Intel Collection is cute narrative when a Bad Decision was made about the THREAT

BS = "We have an Opportunity to Learn. And we think we learned more than China did."

3) This Event has NOTHING to do with Trump or his Natl Security Advisers.

We must improve Detection. This is True -- always.

But Events that are NOT Detected do NOT Trigger Decisions by Military, WH NSC / Cabinet, or the President himself.

Priors are NOT Comparable.

We are in a VERY BAD place as we have Pushed Russia to an alignment with China.

We can't Un-F-ck that right now.

We must assume "coordination" (see Timing) and we must shift to COLD WAR status with prep for Surprise Strikes

Very BAD Decision were made (likely both Military & Civilian)

We need to FIRE those people now.

This is NOT a time for games.

We need serious minds that are Ready for WAR

China is an ENEMY of the United States

We need to go on OFFENSE

NO MORE GAMES

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