Thread by @randymot4

A new theme is to force Ukraine to make peace. This is undoubtedly one of the dumbest ideas to emerge from the war. The Gaetz proposal would cut off US aid (now audited)to try to force a peace deal. This thread sets out the reasons why this is nonsense:
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What would the US gain by this: a reduction of $22-30 B a year in expenditures over 4-5 yrs. About 6-7% of the annual DOD budget. A savings that could come from trillions in other wasteful spending and which would not make a dent in anything. /2

How would it work? UKR loses aid: Russia then says starting peace talks depend upon UKR giving up all occupied land. With aid cut, Russia would increase its demands for surrender even more. Certain outcome: Create crazy peace conditions and keep fighting a weakened UKR./2

Can UKR surrender occupied land to Russia? Ukrainians overwhelmingly say no. They understand the sacrifice of war (they pay a real price) but they know Russian occupation is not "peace."/3

Why do so many Ukrainians feel that way? Because they understand the fate of everyone in occupied UKR. Russian occupation is brutal, cruel and totally barbaric. /4
atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…

Ukrainians know that for Russia, even if "peace" was agreed to, it would end as soon as Putin felt he could take advantage of it. A piece of paper will not stop Russia, only the military reality will stop him./5

https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1594437939500646403?s=20&t=_p-oetGj3QUn4D4rRueCEQ

Some Americans act like this is a territorial dispute that needs to be compromised. Russia. US and UKR had an agreement, which Russia ignored in 2014 and again in 2022. Paper means nothing to Putin./6

So does this mean an "endless" war with Russia and no endgame in sight? Absolutely not. Russia is running out of means to wage the war. Continuing the current course will lead to a UKR win and an actual or de facto "peace" by 2024./7

https://twitter.com/general_ben/status/1607657407223586816?s=20&t=JXYAkNfHrIj1m4tGWFfWOQ

These Russian losses include most of the professional Russian army and its best eqpt. Sanctions preclude replacing the most modern systems. The manpower issue getting worse, i.e. even more convicts will not join now./8

https://twitter.com/randymot4/status/1619478156636983299?s=20&t=K2l_fDmYANGzM27U6do1xw

Putin's game plan: take as much of UKR as he can hoping Western aid ends or slows, UKR public gets war weary. Plan B: pull out and declare he stopped the NATO invasion of Russia (a fake theme being repeated daily on Russian state media)./9

https://twitter.com/Prune602/status/1618405154994413568?s=20

The Gaetz wild plan would surrender UKR to Russia w/o any "peace" to UKR or NATO. It would literally seize defeat out of the jaws of victory. The US and the GOP would be to blamed./10

Russian occupation of a country that borders multiple NATO allies would necessitate a beefed-up US presence in Europe. The cost of this would be much larger than US aid to UKR. The risk of direct conflict with Russia escalated by a big margin./11

carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurop…

The temptation for European countries and others to accommodate to Russian interests would be also greatly increased. Reducing US influence in the world to perhaps dangerously low levels./12
foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukrai…

UKR is a huge agricultural producer with a large industrial base. It would add significantly to Putin's power. Domestic unrest and violence against Russian occupation would also be a constant source of instability./13

If the US pulled aid at this point, we would lose a leadership role in NATO (who unanimously is supporting UKR). It would raise questions on our commitment to Article 5 and threaten the fiber of the alliance./14

Politically, the Republican Party would be the "party that lost Ukraine" and possibly the party that lost Europe. While isolationism appeals to the fringe of the party, it would rapidly lead to economic consequences in US that would be even more unpopular./15