This is the last time you will see the dash like this. Big changes and additional signals are being added. You will have raw strength and direction from trend and momo with an early warning signal (Coal Mine Canary) and an indication of conviction.
We estimate calendar-spread trading accounts on average for more than 50% and 30% of the overall trading volume in commodity and interest rate futures markets respectively. Similarly, less than 70% of the total open interest of rates and commodity futures is held directionally.
On the other hand, non-directional trading in equities, fixed income and currency futures is not relevant enough to affect the analysis. Relying on the above assumptions we showed that on average since 2020, the trend-following CTA industry in aggregate across all markets traded:
GM Fam. This is wild. It shows 50 years of Trend with green showing positive returns and blue showing negative returns. This shows that Trend works best in volatile, non-QE regimes. If a higher inflation rate stays with us then "Trend is the Wifey Fam's Fren" #WifeyDash#ETF
VolQ 3 Rs Research Process
Are your trading programs reliable, resilient and RELEVANT?
The Wifey ETF has a large overweighting of over 2/3 to Trend Momo (time series momentum). The Free Wifey Dashboard (Dash) will show you the raw Trend Momo signals on 1 week to 12 months.
Why we love trend so much. There will be many periods of losses but the convexity in returns when equities are puking hard is worth it. If you can build a program that generates some modest returns in "the good days" then then it is not a loss making hedge. We put trend (trend… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Equities exhibit a negative skewed distribution and it is associated with significant risks from the left tail distribution. While equities can provide substantial returns, you must be aware that the downside risks can be considerable and are not evenly distributed.
Global macro strategies have a positive skew in returns distribution. The positive skew, however, is not a guarantee of positive returns, as global macro strategies are still exposed to left tail risks, particularly during periods of market turbulence or unexpected events.
Trend Momo strategies also tend to have a positive skew in returns distribution due to their focus on capturing sustained market trends. Trend Momo can hold positions for extended periods, allowing them to capture the full extent of a trend.
Five top geopolitical risks marked high by Blackrock. Heightened 🇺🇸🇨🇳 tensions present significant risks for investors
1. Russia-NATO conflict 2. US China strategic competition 3. Major cyberattacks 4. Global technology decoupling 5. Gulf tensions
1/21
1. Russia-NATO conflict
Russia launches a large-scale invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. and EU respond with financial, energy and technology sanctions on Russia.
2/21
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the largest, most dangerous military conflict in Europe since WWII. Russian President Vladimir Putin failed in his initial aim to destroy Ukrainian sovereignty. Ukraine has recaptured significant territory in the south and northeast, though