Thread by @nytimes

Ukraine and Russia are poised to go on the offensive in the war. Russia, wary of the growing Ukrainian arsenal of Western-supplied weapons, is moving first. Here’s how each side is trying to shape the critical next stage in Ukraine. nyti.ms/3lpJP2y

Vladimir Putin has given an order to take all of the Donbas region by March, Ukrainian intelligence says. With about 320,000 soldiers in Ukraine and about 150,000 more at training sites, Russia could try to overwhelm Ukrainian positions there. nyti.ms/3lpJP2y

Russia has already reinforced the eastern frontline in order to assault key Ukrainian positions.

It is looking to secure a symbolic victory by finally driving the Ukrainians from Bakhmut, where the battle has been raging since May. nyti.ms/3lpJP2y

Russia is massing tens of thousands of troops in a way that suggests it could try to swing down from the north and up from the south in a pincer movement that encircles Ukrainian forces in the Donbas, military analysts say. nyti.ms/3lpJP2y

Ukraine has limited prospects to push forward in the east, where Russia has had fortified positions and established supply lines since 2014. To advance elsewhere, Ukraine needs to hold off the Russian offensive while preserving troops and equipment. nyti.ms/3lpJP2y

Ukraine’s most promising counteroffensive is in the south, analysts say. Much of the Russian-occupied territory there is in range of HIMARS rockets, which has forced Russia to move its ammunition depots and command centers farther from the front. nyti.ms/3lpJP2y

Melitopol would be the obvious target for a Ukrainian offensive: the city sits at the intersection of two major highways and a crucial rail line, making it critical to the supply of Russian troops across the south. nyti.ms/3lpJP2y

“There is little doubt that both sides want to go on the offensive,” said a retired Australian army major general who is a fellow at a research institute, “but it really comes down to how much capacity both sides have to do that.” See more details here: nyti.ms/3lpJP2y