Pavel Slunkin Profile picture
Feb 11, 2023 21 tweets 8 min read Read on X
Exactly 8 years ago today Putin, Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko met in Minsk's Palace of Independence to negotiate ceasefire and peace in Ukraine after Russia's invasion in 2014.
I was BY diplomat then and worked with the UA delegation. Here is my thread about that night. Image
Let's first add some context here. The Normandy format meeting in Minsk attracted enormous attention to Belarus that was gradually getting out of international isolation and surpisingly took a rather neutral stance on the war.
Lukashenka didn't recognise the annexation of Crimea and cautiously stood up for the territorial integrity of Ukraine. This let him present Belarus as a relatively neutral country that can suit for negotiations purposes.
Not many people know, but Lukashenka stroke iron while it was hot and even wanted to get himself at the negotiations table. This was of course blocked by Germany and France and he finally gave up. Later he will say that his role that night was to "bring coffee and ammunition"
The delegations arrived in Minsk on February 11, 2015. And you can easily guess who was disrespectfully late. Image
Merkel and Hollande landed in Minsk almost at the same time and Germany's Chancellor asked to meet before they move to the Palace. They met in a plane. In the Merkel's plane, of course. In Palace they arrived together too.
France's President Mr Hollande looked like he didn't know what he was doing there. So he chose the simplest strategy - followed Angela Merkel and her instructions. You can easily read it even in the photos from that night. ImageImageImage
After the first round of talks the heads of delegations finally came out for a group photo and Lukashenka invited the delegations for the dinner. Hollande happily agreed, but Merkel cut him off abruptly saying "no time to have dinner, we start working". And they went back to work
Many diplomats asked me about this photo: "What protocol rule did you apply to assign the place for flags and presidents? This is no alphabetic, no cadence order". Lukashenka had his own patriarchal logic - "lady in the center (the best position), Poroshenko and Putin separated" Image
The talks lasted almost almost 17 hours. It was a hard marathon for everyone. But Putin had his own "doping" from the host country. He was the only one who had a room with a bed right in the Palace. Several times he left the table looking tired and came back fresh after some time
Poroshenko looked exhausted. He had almost no sleep the night before Minsk and was to arrive to Brussels for the EU summit right after the talks in BY. He regularly called to Ukraine to get an update from the front and specifically from Debaltseve that was being heavily attacked ImageImage
Nobody expected the negotiations to last that long and the Palace started looking like this. ImageImageImage
You all know about the Minsk agreements signed that night (if you don't, please, read this thread by @DumoulinME here: )
So, I will end this thread with my personal story after these talks and how the roads of life can intertwine.
The honeymoon period in the relations between Belarus and the West ended in 2020, when Lukashenka rigged elections, brutally cracked down the protests and political prisoners again appeared in the country (first time since 2015).
I resigned from MFA in protest and joined @ecfr Image
A little later I moved to Ukraine, the country that I supported so much since 2013, worked with during the Minsk talks and that became my second home after I had to leave my Homeland.
My friend & former colleague @PMatsukevich who worked with Merkel that night and who resigned in protest in 2020 had to flee from BY too. We both work as policy analysts now. Image
My other friend @A_Shraibman worked as TUT.BY journalist during the talks. In 2021 https://t.co/qQtJ557cqD was labelled "extremist" and destroyed by Belarusian authorities, jornalists were jailed. Artyom managed to flee to Ukraine too. Image
In @ecfr I met @DumoulinME who was dealing with the Minsk agreements when she worked for the France MFA.
And @GresselGustav who has been covering the war and Minsk process for many years.
In 2021 I met Pavlo Klimkin, ex-Foreign Minister of Ukraine. This happened for the first time since our first meeting that night in Minsk in 2015.
Belarus Foreign Minister Makei died in November 2022.
Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko are no longer state leaders.
Lukashenka remains in Palace until now. He "brings ammunition" to the war against Ukraine now literally, not figuratively
I lived in Ukraine until Russia invaded it again on February 24, 2022.
I don't know when and where this story will end, but I wish Ukraine to win. And it definitely will.

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More from @PavelSlunkin

Aug 25, 2023
@TheStudyofWar has recently published their analytical assessment of what happened to Prigozhin and what it means for Belarus and Lukashenka.

ISW is a popular and often quoted resource, but their analysis of Belarus raises too many questions. So let's dig in
According to ISW (quotes from the Russian Offensive Campaign assesment, August 24, 2023):
1. "Lukashenka will likely remain silent on the matter to avoid provoking Putin and further risking his already vulnerable position"

understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
Image
2. "Prigozhin’s assassination has likely signaled to Lukashenko both a dramatic reduction of his negotiating space with the Kremlin and an implicit threat against his continued attempts to resist Union State integration efforts".
Read 21 tweets
Jul 24, 2023
Many rumors surrounding the sudden disappearance of the Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang. Of course, I don't know where he is or what is happening to him.
Instead I will share my impressions of our meeting and working together in 2015. Image
He then headed the Protocol Department of the Foreign Ministry and came to Belarus as part of a delegation led by Xi Jinping. You can spot him in this picrure. Or us both in this video https://t.co/iQmQgMSYlD
Image
Let me start by saying that the Chinese protocol is a huge machine that employs hundreds of diplomats. The entire Protocol department of Belarus then consisted of 11 people. This is also the reason why a young dilomat like me had a chance to work with Qin Gang and other CH VIPs.
Read 17 tweets
Jul 21, 2023
Wild examples of RU propaganda narratives are often published here. But you have never seen quotes from the Belarusian TV.
This is unfair. RU propagandists look like sweet summer children against the backdrop of their BY colleagues.
A thread with translated quotes from the video
This is Aliaksandr Lukashenka's favorite "journalist" - Grigory Azarenok. He works in Lukashenka's pool, follows him everywhere and even received a Wagner sledgehammer as a gift from him. Mr Azarenok is a laureate of Belarusian state awards in the field of journalism. Image
I am quoting from his author's program "The secret springs of politics", which is broadcast on the main TV channel of Minsk:

"The European Parliament, a bunch of talking shit, issued a resolution! They accuse us of stealing children! They want to arrest us!"
Read 9 tweets
Jul 5, 2023
I know that many journalists and editors-in-chief follow me here. This short thread is for you.

Please remember that when you call Alexander Lukashenko the “President of Belarus” this is neither true, nor correct. And this misleads your reader. Some facts further…
This is not my personal view or analytical assessment, but an official position of dozens of states. After rigged elections in 2020 the EU, its member states, USA, UK, Canada, NZ, Ukraine and many many other countries don’t recognize him as the legitimate president of Belarus

Since then no Ambassador of these states has presented credentials to Lukashenko so as not to recognize his legitimacy or call him president in official documents
Read 10 tweets
Apr 10, 2022
A few words about the resistance of Belarusians to the Russian aggression in Ukraine.

Thread.
1/ After 2020 and an unprecedented wave of repressions, several hundred thousand people have left Belarus. Thousands are in prison for political reasons (see the map)
2/ Torture and beatings that shocked the world in August 2020 have not disappeared. They have become even more cruel and large-scale. Some political prisoners tried to kill themselves right during the trial: by slitting their stomach or piercing neck with a ballpoint pen
Read 16 tweets

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