Very interesting to see someone with knowledge of Ukrainian intelligence trying to dampen down all this talk of a massive new Russian offensive, courtesy of this @KyivPost story. kyivpost.com/post/12038
Other than with raw numbers of raw soldiers, the Russian army is militarily not stronger than on Feb 24 and in many cases is weaker, relying on older, less efficient equipment.
Also, unlike on Feb 24, Russian logistics has been strained for months. That problem hasn’t magically been solved. Will there be infantry heavy Russian attacks up and down the line? Almost certainly.
But the talk of some massive, Russia offensive needs to be put in context.
I know people think that talking like that will result in more support quickly for Ukraine, but the evidence doesn’t support that. All this talk of Russia going on the offensive is being used by those who want the Biden administration to force Ukr to make concessions.
https://twitter.com/steviejay_999/status/1624433025797992450
Actually, it would be surprising if Ukrainian officials did know the historic research on the US public opinion and war. Most states have little knowledge of the intricacy of public opinion in other states.
Thus the widespread and deeply flawed stories in tne Spring and Summer that US public opinion would get bored of the war and move on.
https://twitter.com/justincbzz/status/1624438274587598850
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