Very interesting to see someone with knowledge of Ukrainian intelligence trying to dampen down all this talk of a massive new Russian offensive, courtesy of this @KyivPost story. kyivpost.com/post/12038
Other than with raw numbers of raw soldiers, the Russian army is militarily not stronger than on Feb 24 and in many cases is weaker, relying on older, less efficient equipment.
Also, unlike on Feb 24, Russian logistics has been strained for months. That problem hasn’t magically been solved. Will there be infantry heavy Russian attacks up and down the line? Almost certainly.
But the talk of some massive, Russia offensive needs to be put in context.
I know people think that talking like that will result in more support quickly for Ukraine, but the evidence doesn’t support that. All this talk of Russia going on the offensive is being used by those who want the Biden administration to force Ukr to make concessions.
Actually, it would be surprising if Ukrainian officials did know the historic research on the US public opinion and war. Most states have little knowledge of the intricacy of public opinion in other states.
Thus the widespread and deeply flawed stories in tne Spring and Summer that US public opinion would get bored of the war and move on.
A particularly exciting announcement! We have 3 new permanent lectureships at @univofstandrews@StAndrewsIR . These are for any field in IR. We want people who have demonstrated the best research potential and who can translate that excellence to teaching. vacancies.st-andrews.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/10…
I may be biased as head of school, but I think IR at St Andrews is one of the best places to work in the country. It’s a school with excellent colleagues with a wide range of expertise and St Andrews is a special place.
These jobs are also some of the best we will have for years. You basically start a tenure track right away but are made permanent after only a few years and without the divisive tenure experience that can happen in other countries.
Really pleased to see that this understanding is spreading. @TheStudyofWar report claims that Russia is spreading stories exaggerating Russian strength deliberately to inhibit support for Ukraine. understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
Basically, the more people repeat their mantra that Ukraine can’t win, the more they are passing on a message that Russia wants spread in the hope that it will mean support for Ukraine will flag.
Ukraine can win this war. This needs to be understood for many reasons, not least to counterbalance this kind of misinformation/
Was looking for the event at which this statement, by Asst Sec Defense Celeste Wallander, was made. Its at this @CNASdc and she actually says some other points. cnas.org/events/mission…
Starting at 15:03 she describes Russia's defense position. This is where the claim that have of Russia's 'stocks' of Main Battle Tanks have been destroyed or captured. Moreover, she repeats a figure from earlier saying that Russia has 80% of its ground forces deployed in Ukraine.
For someone interested in force generation, the most important point is around 15:40. Russia retains a defense production capability but it is producing at a 'lower level because of sanctions'.
Someone explain this balloon story to me, because it makes absolutely no sense. It can’t have top of the line equipment, as the Chinese would realise the US could easily shoot it down, it has no stealth capabilities, so they knew it could easily be tracked.
It’s slow and clunky and easy to track. Can anyone let me know it’s purpose? Do they want it shot down?
I see people saying that actually its not easy to shoot down. I was going by the anonymized Pentagon briefing yesterday which made it seem that the US could shoot it down, but has chosen not to. However, Im no expert.
We seem to have reached the stage of Brexit justification which basically says, yes it’s a catastrophe, but it’s ok because we now must take responsibility for our actions and can’t blame the EU for all our problems. It’s a fascinating slight of hand.
The blaming of the EU for all the UK’s problems was the result of the dishonesty of the Brexiteers in the first place. Instead of admitting the truth, which was that the U.K. had carved out an extraordinarily powerful and beneficial place in the EU….
With access to the single market, control of much of Europe’s financial resources and even its own currency, the Brexiteers created a fiction of Britain being held back and discriminated against. Actually, Britain was on its way to being the dominant power in the EU.
An interesting comparison of who is being accurate in their loss/damage claims. The UK MOD in its intelligence update today says that the well-covered Ukrainian attack on a Russian base on New Years Eve caused approx 300 casualties
At the time, both the Ukrainians and the Russians made claims. The Ukrainians, according to this @nytimes story, were saying on January 4 that a series of attacks on Russian bases New Years Eve killed or wounded 'hundreds'.