1/9 This thread includes additional details about the battle of Vuhledar and satellite imagery that helps to understand and visualize the situation better. I had to break this into several parts, so I can publish more imagery of russian losses later. Part 1
2/9 For the past two weeks, the enemy attempted to advance in multiple directions simultaneously, hoping to outflank defenders. The occupiers tried to advance from Pavlivka and Mykil's'ke, as well as west and east of them, assaulting with the forces of the 155th and 40th brigades
3/9 Battalions from the 36th and 72nd (russian motor rifle) brigades tried to advance alongside the 155th and 40th brigades but also failed. Special forces partially lost control when the commander of the 14th Spetsnaz Brigade, colonel Sergey Polyakov was killed.
4/9 What makes the destruction of the 155th, and 40th brigades especially important? This is not commonly discussed, but on the battlefield, only a small percentage of people participate in the actual assault. Even many combat roles like artillery do not face their enemy directly
5/9 Not that many people are fit to be in the forward vanguard assault groups that face an enemy first. It takes a lot of experience, courage, or stimulants to attack and act effectively when you know that your chances to be killed or wounded in the assault are almost 90%.
6/9 The backbone of the 155th and 40th brigades consisted of sergeants and officers who were ready to execute any order - whether it was a risky frontal assault or execution of civilians in Bucha and Irpin, where the 155th brigade committed war crimes.
7/9 After staggering casualties of the VDV forces in the battle for Kyiv, it took them a year to restore assault capabilities partially, which we can see in the Kreminna area. It will take as long for marines to restore assault capacities, especially after a catastrophic failure
8/9 Ukraine achieved this success due to a combination of factors: good planning and selection of positions, the bravery of soldiers, intel, and smart utilization of scarce resources. But to project the Vuhledar experience on the whole war, we need much more ammo and weapons
9/9 I am planning to publish imagery of infamous armored vehicle columns in the coming weeks, so if you don't want to miss it, make sure to follow and retweet, as Twitter algorithms might not be in favor of war-related information.
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Frontelligence Insight conducted an initial Battle Damage Assessment of strikes on Belbek Airfield in Crimea on May 15th and 16th. This analysis is based on mid-resolution images taken on May 16th
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2/Three large scorch marks are visible in the central part of the airfield: two on the military jet apron and one in the fuel depot area. The exact diameter of these marks cannot be determined due to low resolution, but they appear to be approximately over 30m in size.
3/ The imagery from July 2023 confirms that the apron was used to host military jets. Due to the resolution limitations, we cannot determine whether any aircraft were hit or destroyed, nor can we assess the level of damage, but we can conclude that missiles did reach the apron.
There has been a controversy surrounding the situation in the northern area of Kharkiv Oblast, invaded on May 10th. One of the primary points of contention has been the alleged absence of fortifications. But is it so? 🧵Thread:
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2/ Given that many of these areas are now under Russian control, sharing some satellite images is appropriate. From these images, you can see fortified and communication trenches in areas near Krasne. Some of these are older Russian positions, while others were built in 2023
3/ While it's true that the placement of some of these trenches might appear unconventional at first glance, I refrain from making comments without knowledge of the defense plan for the area. Trenches can serve various purposes - distraction, communication, defenses, etc.
Overnight, Russian infantry, backed by armored vehicles, entered Kharkiv oblast from Belgorod area, using small tactical units. Frontelligence Insight had previously cautioned about this scenario. Here's what we know about it🧵:
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2/ The capture of border villages like Strilecha, Krasne, Pylne, and Borysivka isn't unexpected. It's an anticipated maneuver to divert Ukrainian resources from the main Russian offensive in Donbas. Considering manpower shortages, Ukraine will be forced to redeploy some personnel
3/ Many question how Russian forces crossed the border so quickly. The answer is simple — the border is a grey zone heavily surveilled and, hence doesn't have defensive structures. Instead, the defensive lines are positioned deeper within Ukrainian territory.
May 2nd updates on frontline developments from the Frontelligence Insight, including the information about a potential Russian offensive in the Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts
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🧵Thread
2/ After successes in the Ocheretyne area, Russian forces now have slightly more than 10 kilometers of ground between them and the T0504 highway, which connects Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk. However, another potential threat is emerging from the northward-leading road.
3/ The Russian expansion into Arkhangel's'ke widens their range of possibilities and complicates Ukrainian efforts to establish a cohesive defensive system across such a broad area, particularly given the understaffing of many brigades.
Russian forces have gained tactically near Ocheretyne and Chasiv Yar, and have attempted a large assault towards Sivers'k. Frontelligence Insight provides a concise analysis of the current situation in this 🧵thread
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2/ According to on-the-ground reports, occasional Russian groups have temporarily crossed the canal at Chasiv Yar but didn't establish a bridgehead. A geolocated video by @giK1893 shows that Russians tried to set a position in the south of Chasiv Yar at the landbridge crossing
3/ Considering that Russians gathered superior means and forces in the area, it's a point of concern. It opens an opportunity to advance into the forest on the west side of the canal. If successful, this would provide them with the freedom to choose further assault directions.
Why have Russian forces advanced in multiple directions and what are the implications? What are the future prospects? Today's analysis by Frontelligence Insight centers on Chasiv Yar, Kurakhkove, and Ocheretyne
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2/ Ukrainian forces retreated from Ocheretyne and Solovyove. While the 115th brigade was blamed, the core issue is that many brigades are not in a condition to hold the enemy with disproportional advantage in personnel, artillery, vehicles, and air support along the frontline
3/ Our team has received reports of poor communication, coordination, and leadership. These problems are rooted in deeper systemic issues, like personnel shortages and challenges in preparing skilled officers for senior roles promptly and in holding them accountable