Collingwood 🇬🇧 Profile picture
Feb 12, 2023 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Some home truths about the much misunderstood #BudapestMemoramdum.

I am tired of people who do not understand the Budapest Memorandum citing it as a reason for why we just support Ukraine. There are good arguments for supporting Ukraine, but this isn't one of them. First...[1/n]
...the US and UK broke the Budapest Memorandum long before 2014. The Memorandum was signed on on 5 December 1994, to provide security assurances by its signatories relating to the accession of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of...[2/n]
...Nuclear Weapons. That is to say, not just Ukraine, but also Belarus and Kazakhstan. Article 3 says that signatories should "Refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by the signatory of the rights inherent in its...[3/n]
...sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind."

Yet Britain, the US and the EU have consistently for over 20 years imposed sanctions on Belarus. When in 2013 Minsk complained that this broke the terms of the Memorandum, the US State Department swatted the...[4/n]
...objections aside. First, it reminded Minsk that "the Memorandum is not legally binding." Second, it said that the economic sanctions were in fact for human rights violations. In other words, the US decided it could carve out exceptions unilaterally, and anyway, it
...[5/n]
...was not a binding treaty.

Secondly, Ukraine never had nuclear weapons it could use. Russia was the successor state to the Soviet Union, and as such the nuclear codes and nuclear football were handed by Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev to Russian President Boris...[6/n]
...Yeltsin on 25 December 1991, the day the USSR was dissolved and Russia became a sovereign state. Ukraine never had the codes, it never had control over the weapons, so it gave up nothing. What it did do was sign the Nuclear Weapons Non-Proliferation Treaty at the...[7/n]
...behest of the United States of America, thereby promising not to develop its own. But that's hardly unusual. Nuclear non-proliferation has been, apart from Israel, a long standing US policy priority, and Washington has acted with extreme prejudice against any nation...[8/n]
...that tries.

Ultimately, the citing the Budapest Memorandum as a reason we 'must' support Ukraine is simply mistaken and, as far as I can see, borne of ignorance, as Peter Hitchens and @georgegalloway have said many times. Yet it is repeated over and over as if it's fact.ENDS

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More from @admcollingwood

Jan 5
I wrote that @GoodwinMJ was correct to say that serious pro-natalism was a far better solution to an aging population than high immigration, but that people would howl at the consequences of "serious pro-natal policy". To understand why, let's look at what that would entail.

1/n
A government serious about increasing the birth rate would use the full suite of options open to it. These would broadly fall into three categories.

1. Public messaging
2. Tax and financial incentives
3. Non-monetary incentives (nudging).

2/n
Take smoking. All three categories operated in parallel for decades.

1. A public health campaign to raise awareness.
2. Increased taxes on cigarettes.
3. Making smoking progressively harder to do (pub ban) while helping people quit (smoking cessation through the NHS).

3/n
Read 28 tweets
Nov 21, 2025
🚨Important.🚨

If you actually read it, the Trump (or should that be Witkoff-Dmitriev?) Peace Plan includes *significant* Russian concessions. So why is it being dismissed out of hand by the UK press and European political class?

🧵 1/n
Before I start, we should be clear that this is a super important matter—about war with a nuclear armed power; about literally trillions of dollars of total economic cost to Europe—and so the concerned citizen must take time to inform him or herself.

2/n
As will become apparent, the legacy press in the UK appears to be untrustworthy on this issue (surprise!) We need to do better, so let us try to break down the plan and then answer these questions ourselves.

First, those Russian concessions I mentioned.

3/n
Read 31 tweets
Sep 26, 2025
This is a thread on why Britain is likely to lose the Falkland Islands, probably within the next 25 years, but by 2065 at the latest. We could theoretically avoid this, but will probably not take the necessary steps, so lose them we will.

🧵

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First things first: it is unlikely we will be faced (on a strategically relevant time frame) with the prospect of losing the islands militarily. We might be militarily weak, but since the 1982 war, we have bolstered defences of the islands, centred on RAF Mount Pleasant.

2/m Image
These defences involve four permanently stationed Typhoon fighter jets, plus an aerial refuelling tanker; strategic airlift; remote radar heads; Sky Sabre medium range AD missiles; a RN River class patrol boat, as well as destroyers/frigates coming on station as and when.

3/n Image
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Read 36 tweets
Jul 13, 2025
This Sunday evening, a thread about our lying political elite, about global conflict, about why you are probably manipulated, the reason you have been manipulated, and why you should stop accepting this and demand answers. This is a story that spans the globe, but...

1/n
...it starts at a football match in Edinburgh on 3 August 2024. Local team Hearts were playing Glasgow Rangers. At the match, a Rangers fan unfurled the banner pictured below. It caused such anger that Rangers felt it necessary to publicly condemn the fan and promise...

2/n Image
...a full investigation. The previous season, the police prosecuted another Rangers fan for unfurling a similar banner (below). Why do these banners elicit such responses? The answer is the white skull and crossbones on both. It is not just any skull and crossbones, but...

3/n Image
Read 29 tweets
Jun 25, 2025
In the last thread, I showed how Britain went from being a nation of British culture to a multicultural nation, how that makes the integration of migrants impossible, and why that's been particularly bad for Britain. Now we'll look at the solution.



22/n
The basic equation is: immigration in too high numbers equals the creation of ‘communities’, which equals zero chance of integration, which equals the government throwing in the towel and adopting multiculturalism, which equals the importation into Britain a range of...

23/n
...alien wonts, some of which, such as ancient religious and tribal enmities, habitual corruption, and female genital mutilation, are undesirable and undermine the entire social fabric. Ultimately, this will cause exactly the ethnic conflict commonplace in the Indian...

24/n
Read 26 tweets
Jun 25, 2025
Controversial thread for this evening.

It's about why immigrants CANNOT integrate; why it is therefore probably UNFAIR to ask them to integrate; and what is the only likely solution.

I think you'll dislike it; I do myself. But it's the truth.

But before the solution...

1/n
...we need to understand why it is now unfair to demand that immigrants integrate and assimilate. And to understand that, we need to look back and find out why we moved from an implicit policy of integration to an explicit policy of multiculturalism in the first place.

2/n
Britain was never a nation of migrants. In fact, it is difficult to think of a country that was less a nation of immigrants. Genetic records show that the matrilineal ancestors of some three quarters of white Britons were already in these Isles 6,000 years ago.

3/n
Read 21 tweets

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