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Collingwood 🇬🇧 Profile picture
Collingwood 🇬🇧
@admcollingwood
Co-host of @multipolarpod https://t.co/XmjLSv3guW || DMs open
Chris Evans Profile picture Andy Ross Profile picture 3 subscribed
Apr 26 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Just read this terrifying little column. It's a must read (link below) because it suggests Europe is on the road to war. It's written by the former staff director of the Near East Subcommittee of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, so it should be reasonably...

1/n Image ...credible. It argues that the Biden Administration thinks that anything that looks like a Russian victory in Ukraine would be a serious "setback to US security strategy and would be a blow, even a fatal one, to NATO." This is true, but I would add that this is only...

2/n
Mar 22 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
The Anglo-Saxon chattering class is fiercely critical of the methods 🇸🇻 President @nayibbukele has used to tackle violent crime and gangs in his country. They're wrong to be so *even on their own terms*, for reasons important for our own governance. A🧵 on why. First...

1/n ...let's get some facts straight. The methods President Bukele used *were* extremely harsh. To achieve his goals, rights of association were suspended, as was the right to legal counsel. The period in which a suspect could be detained without charge was extended from 3...

2/n
Mar 13 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
@benshapiro is trending for arguing that the #pension age should be raised and that the current system is unsustainable. His arguments are, to be kind, bad (even in terms of data/facts), but they are used by UK politicians, too, so let's tackle them in a quick thread 🧵
1/n The first argument Mr Shapiro uses is that when state pensions were introduced (in the US by FDR) life expectancy was *lower* than the pension age. In Britain, pensions for all through NI were introduced in 1946. Male life expectancy was indeed lower than the pension age...

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Mar 2 • 23 tweets • 4 min read
🧵 on why I have no sympathy for most political and media figures criticising @georgegalloway after his #Rochdale win -- and why you shouldn't either. Galloway has been criticised for two things: his support for Palestine and his 'divisive' politics. Let's go one at a time.

1/n First, to upset everybody, I don't have any opinion on the Gaza situation beyond that I'd like the killing to stop. I don't even have any opinion on the overall Israel-Palestine feud, beyond that I would prefer that they could live in peace together. This conflict has...

2/n
Feb 24 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
I know I'm going to upset a lot of people by saying this, but conservatives and the right have picked the wrong cause with Shemima Begum. Yes, what she did wasn't just morally repulsive, but worse: it was traitorous. Yes, she showed no interest in coming back and appeared to... ...revel in the anti-Western medieval savagery of the state she had chosen. Yes, it's possible (perhaps probable) that she isn't repentant or contrite, but is instead just desperate. Yes, we should loathe the often pernicious human rights lawyers and open borders left who have...
Jan 24 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
The Telegraph's war drums beat evermore alarmingly. Three points. (i) We could not draft the public into the army, because there are no cadre regiments able to accept, organise, train and equip them. (ii) "there should be a “shift” in the mindset of regular British people...

1/n Image ...think more like troops, who are mentally prepared that war with Russia could happen." Has General Sir Patrick taken leave of his senses? He wants the entire population to focus on war with RUSSIA?! Over what? Who controls Lugansk? No thanks. The establishment has lost...

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Nov 21, 2023 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
The 'Conservative' Party is in far more trouble than widely reported in the press. They face near wipeout at the next election, losing in the process a great deal of their Parliamentary talent (such as it is). Let's crunch numbers to show what a mess they're in.

1/n Image It's well known that Tory polling numbers are disastrous. The Politico poll of polls has them on only 24% and Labour on 45% (left chart). These are the worst numbers since the Brexit constitutional crisis and related Parliamentary impasse before the 2019 election (right).

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Nov 20, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
It cost £1 million in legal, prison and deportation costs to remove this gang rapist from the UK after his original deportation flight was stopped by passengers in 2018. There are so many things this says about the UK that we are going to have to take them one at a time.

🧵1/n Image First, it shows how a system of treaties, national legislation, judicial interpretation and international obligations serves to hobble efforts to get even the most wicked offenders deported. You can read how this works in the attached thread.

2/n
Nov 16, 2023 • 28 tweets • 7 min read
Since Suella Braverman's incendiary departure letter to the PM on Tuesday, and especially after the Supreme Court decision yesterday, we've been told that the government cannot stop the the #channel small boats under current UK Law. Why?

This 🧵 is a comprehensive primer.

1/n First, some samples to give an idea of the scale of the issue.

In 2021, 72% of those who arrived on the South Coast of England in small boats were granted asylum. This rate of acceptance is nearly three times the rate in France. Even those who are rejected have a good...

2/n
Jul 13, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
A thread offering a little vignette on how ruined Britain is, and how that ruination is caused by a dreadful political class.

[N.B. SO COMMONPLACE IS THIS SORT OF PROBLEM THAT YOU WILL NOT BE SHOCKED; HOWEVER, WHEN YOU STOP AND THINK, YOU'LL BE APPALLED]

🧵 [1/n] This morning, I listened to the West Yorkshire Council Questions to the Mayor. @Wayne_Dixon, the @SDPhq Councillor for Middleton and Belle Isle, asked the (Labour) mayor whether she could work toward restoring trust in the police. Mr Dixon's constituents have repeatedly...

[2/n]
Jun 13, 2023 • 28 tweets • 8 min read
There has been a huge buzz about this brilliant @Tinkzorg essay for @compactmag_, focused on the tragedy of US realists like @ElbridgeColby. Must read stuff: it's penetrating and beautifully written. Nevertheless, I'm going to disagree with its core point. First...

[1/n] Image ...@Tinkzorg offers a scrupulously fair, balanced, steel-man synopsis of @ElbridgeColby's view of US grand strategy, and specifically with regard to China. Mr Colby's book, The Strategy of Denial, writes @Tinkzorg, "is long, carefully written, and meticulously argued..."

[2/n]
Mar 30, 2023 • 19 tweets • 6 min read
🧵It's looking increasingly likely that one day, the US is going to wake up and find Taiwan on China's side of the ledger. From there, the entire First Island Chain would become increasingly untenable, and with it any hope that the US could prevent China, over time, from... ...gaining the sort of regional hegemony that the US enjoys. This would not allow China to dominate the world, but it would allow China to compete with the US on even terms, and eventually, given the region China would dominate would be the centre of...

scholars-stage.org/losing-taiwan-…
Mar 25, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
I urge everybody to read this brief Peter Hitchens essay on Iraq and the war in Ukraine. It uses admirably clear English to convey a refreshing - and sadly often missing - subtlety and complexity of the issue. And, if the cat may look at the king, I...

theamericanconservative.com/one-continuous… ...would offer a certain more hopeful answer to Mr Hitchens's final question: "Is it war itself that these idealists want: Iraq then, Russia now, who knows where next?" Yes, that is what 'these idealists' want - and above all with Russia, a nation with which they are obsessed...
Mar 7, 2023 • 16 tweets • 5 min read
🧵Months after almost the entire legacy TV and printed media blamed #NordstreamSabotage on Russia (based on zero evidence) and then didn't bother to, you know, do their job by investigating, it appears they face humiliation -- as they did with Lab Leak, Russiagate & WMDs. [1/n] The New York Times reports that US intelligence has evidence that suggests "a pro Ukrainian group" carried out the #Nordstream attacks. [COMMENT: This is hack speak for "somebody in the intelligence community or White House leaked this to us or told us to write it."] It...[2/n]
Feb 12, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Some home truths about the much misunderstood #BudapestMemoramdum.

I am tired of people who do not understand the Budapest Memorandum citing it as a reason for why we just support Ukraine. There are good arguments for supporting Ukraine, but this isn't one of them. First...[1/n] ...the US and UK broke the Budapest Memorandum long before 2014. The Memorandum was signed on on 5 December 1994, to provide security assurances by its signatories relating to the accession of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of...[2/n]
Jan 25, 2023 • 19 tweets • 9 min read
A 🧵 about #WEF2023, conspiracy theories and #Ukraine️.

I'm not a fan of conspiracy theories regarding the World Economic Forum -- the general view that they somehow control or strongly influence governments to undertake #BuildBackBetter and #GreatReset related policies...[1/n] ...against the interests of the people. Of course I understand the attraction: #Davos, the WEF's annual backslapping exercise, is attended by many powerful and influential people who often *do* enact policies against the interests of their people, and Klaus Schwab looks...[2/n]
Jan 19, 2023 • 13 tweets • 8 min read
"It is a gas station masquerading as a country" -- Sen John McCain
"Russia doesn't make anything" -- Pres Barack Obama.

🧵on reassessing the size of the Russian economy based on an excellent essay by Jacques Sapir (@russeurope). It is often said that... [1/n] ..."Russia's economy is only the size of Italy's." Is this true? The chart below, ranking nations by nominal GDP, suggests it's roughly correct: it's a bit bigger than Italy, a bit smaller than Canada, and *much* smaller than mid-ranking powers like the 🇫🇷, 🇬🇧, 🇩🇪 & 🇯🇵...[2/n]
Jan 13, 2023 • 24 tweets • 8 min read
🧵To supply #Ukraine️, the US has run down its weapons inventories so much that they will take 3 to 7 YEARS to replenish (even at surge rates), per new research by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. This has huge implications, for 🇺🇦 and, perhaps more...[1/n] ...importantly, for the US ability to defend Taiwan (as well as its ability to *deter* China from attacking in the first place).

First, the facts. The US has provided Ukraine with a range of military aid -- from assault rifles and 5.56mm ammo right up to world leading...[2/n]
Jan 10, 2023 • 27 tweets • 6 min read
🧵The outcome of the conflict over #Ukraine - its terms and timing - will be of paramount importance, not just to the country itself, but to the geopolitical and economic outlook of the world for the next decade or more. It's therefore useful to have quality analysis of...[1/n] ...the potential courses of action on both sides from here. I'm very grateful therefore to have found the below excellent piece by retired US Lt Col Alex Vershinin (hat tip: @yvessmith). It's worth reading in full, but in this thread, I will...[2/n]

russiamatters.org/analysis/whats…
Jan 7, 2023 • 21 tweets • 7 min read
This tweet - and entire thread - by @Alex_agvg is correct: the best way for the US to maintain its global position, and minimise the chances of a Third World War erupting, is for Europe to take responsibility for defending Europe.

🧵on why, and why it's increasingly unlikely.[1] First, brief background. East Asia (or the Western Pacific) has become an issue because the balance of power increasingly favours Chinese domination of the region, but the facts on the ground haven't caught up. Instead, they reflect an earlier period when the USA was...[2/n] Image
Jan 3, 2023 • 18 tweets • 5 min read
A thread 🧵on Lend Lease to Russia during the Second World War and its effect on the Eastern Front. @edwardkeyjf and @Hethers100 contend that the Soviets might not have been able to secure victory on the Eastern Front without US and British aid. This is incorrect. The...[1/n] ...problem with this argument is that hardly any US or British aid arrived in Russia in 1941, and very little for the majority of 1942. By the time it did start to arrive in significant enough volumes to make a difference, the Battle of Stalingrad had already been won...[2/n]