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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT Profile picture
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Feb 14 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
The indicator of current financial conditions (vs. a year ago) bounced from the lows this year. #consumer @dailyshot charts... dailyshotbrief.com
Eurozone: The recent equity market rally has eliminated the excess risk premium over bonds.
Deutsche Bank’s positioning indicator has been nearing its midpoint level.
Inflows into investment-grade bonds have been slowing.
The TD Ameritrade retail positioning index remained depressed in January.
Fewer "recession" mentions on earnings calls.

But more swearing.

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More from @MikeZaccardi

Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT Profile picture
Feb 14
Let's do a little technical analysis..

AAII Bullish Sentiment above resistance to confirm rally. Suttmeier BofA charts..
Asset manager SPX futures position remains bullish
S&P 500 back to 1928 with pullbacks and rallies along the way
Read 8 tweets
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT Profile picture
Feb 13
S&P 500 sales growth and negative earnings growth (ex-Fins); red circles indicate periods when sales grew but earnings fell YoY Image
Earnings typically recover stronger than they fall Image
2023 consensus EPS is falling off a cliff, -12% since the June 2022 peak Image
Read 5 tweets
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT Profile picture
Feb 13
Vail Resorts snowfall: Season-to-date snowfall is currently +36% Y/Y and +33% on a two-year stack $MTN Image
We observed 3-yr food inflation of +18%, on avg., across retailers in Atlanta $DG $KR Image
BofA: We forecast an above-consensus 2.2% m/m increase in the Census Bureau’s ex-autos retail sales figure for January Image
Read 9 tweets
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT Profile picture
Feb 13
BofA: US market cap equity leadership has come to an end
US equities have been leading global peers since November 2007, the longest stretch of regional outperformance since 1900
US equities have outperformed Europe and Japan by 230-320bps per year since 1900
Read 5 tweets
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT Profile picture
Feb 12
BofA: Our US Regime Indicator has dipped its toe into Downturn territory.

Historically, High Quality, Low Risk and Large Size performed best in this phase
Growth valuations vs Value remain at historically high levels
Value remains deeply underweight by active managers
Read 4 tweets
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT Profile picture
Feb 6
250 S&P 500 companies representing 71% of earnings have reported so far.

4Q EPS is tracking a 1% miss at $53.14, representing a 2% decline YoY
BofA: Tight labor and waning pricing power are likely to pressure margins further
Mega-cap Tech stocks failed to deliver this earnings season, with FAAMG (META, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL/GOOG) in aggregate missing consensus earnings by 8%.
Read 9 tweets

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