private payroll growth remains robust, while the unemployment rate has fallen to low levels.

Job openings in the economy also remain relatively high relative to pre-pandemic levels Job-to-job (j2j) flows are slowing

Some Banks Worry That Deposit Betas and Deposit Outflows Have Become More Unpredictable and Could Be Higher This Cycle Duration by Type of Bank Loan

Russell 2000 stocks comprise just 3% of multi-cap core portfolios, half of the weight vs. a decade ago Small vs. large cap relative performance cycles have typically lasted about a decade

let's do a little technical analysis on this @awealthofcs

Goldman US Consumer Dashboard: May 2023: Still a Source of Strength "We Expect that Real Spending Will Grow by 2% in 2023"

2011 debt crisis non-parallel:

Stock - bond allocations in 2011 were ~30ppt higher than today Inflation expectations remain anchored

The West’s economic growth slipped into negative territory at the end of 2022 The housing market in the West has been the weakest in the United States so far

Bonds $AGG down 7 in a row $KRE building on last week's gains

Wholesale used vehicle prices were lower again this month. @SoberLook charts...
dailyshotbrief.com Equity fund flows have flattened out.

SPX at resistance, but what happens if it breaks out?
Suttmeier BofA charts.. "Nothing more bullish than a failed head and shoulders top" $SPY

Stocks with high non-US sales are outperforming domestic-facing stocks despite elevated trade tensions The World Trade Uncertainty Index has spiked to its highest level since the start of the pandemic

Nearly every market currently trades at or below median historical valuations Spot the bubble.

Goods Consumption Remains Well Above the Pre-Pandemic Trend Despite Reopening and Fiscal Retrenchment (Goldman) Post-Pandemic Jump in Low-End Wages Hasn’t Reversed—and 2023 Wage Growth Is Still Tracking Above Pre-Pandemic Levels

The PMI Manufacturing index from S&P Global is back above 50, signaling a rebound in US manufacturing.

Will we also see a bounce in the ISM Manufacturing PMI this month? @SoberLook charts...
dailyshotbrief.com The Eurozone: The composite PMI (manufacturing + services) is in growth territory, driven by services.

BofA: Our Sell Side Indicator has declined by over 7ppt from 2021 peak, now just 1.3ppt shy of a contrarian “Buy” signal Asset allocation: Individuals shun stocks, add to bonds

1Q EPS is 0.4% ahead of consensus, but in-line ex-Fins Credit standards have historically led S&P sales growth by about two quarters

Mid-sized banks seeing most pressure from higher funding costs Market generally rewarded those banks with stronger earnings this season

Some hawish FedSpeak lately securing a 25bps hike on May 3. Well, an 89% chance. Opex out of the way

6% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results:

90% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise @FactSet The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 18.3.

This P/E ratio is below the 5-year average (18.5) but above the 10-year average (17.3)

S&P 500 dividend payout ratio implied by GS top-down forecasts Dividends typically fall by just 1% during recessions

Loans & Leases on commercial bank balance sheets registered their biggest 2-week decline since 1990

MarketDesk charts.. Consumer credit growth remained positive but slows in February

BofA: US dollar has begun 4th bear market of past 50 years BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: stays at 2.3;

Bull & Bear stable past 2 weeks with most sub-components unchanged;

bearish shift from hedge funds offsetting stronger bond inflows;