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David Henig 🇺🇦 aka @DavidHenig@mastodonapp.uk Profile picture
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Feb 14 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This is going to be a difficult #tradevalentines in a world which seems to have regressed to 'you should see the size of my subsidies'...
A #tradevalentines of sorts from what were once known as the lonely hearts ads (do these still exist?)...

'Looking for love in distant countries having found demands for ever closer union from neighbours just too much...'
Dear Australia, will you be our #tradevalentines?

Next year. Promise not to find anyone else in the meantime...

gov.uk/government/new…
Is this the end of monogamy I keep reading about? Australia loves the UK but wants the EU as well... theguardian.com/australia-news…

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig 🇺🇦 aka @DavidHenig@mastodonapp.uk Profile picture
Feb 15
Seems to be the stage of the Northern Ireland Protocol discussions where Rishi Sunak wants to have 'performative negotiations' with EU leaders to show involvement. Which is normal, but no substitute for having a good plan for landing this, of which there remains little sign.
Insofar as there is a domestic plan it seems to be 'don't involve Parliament' which is predictable but questionable as the issue is obviously about Conservative Party management more than cross-party, where it would be backed.
I'm assuming at the very least the announcement of a Northern Ireland Protocol solution will be accompanied by a similar one of a political process there with a view to restoring Stormont, but there hasn't been any sign of this yet, and political headwinds are strong.
Read 7 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 aka @DavidHenig@mastodonapp.uk Profile picture
Feb 11
That the Brexit debate has changed is obvious. But still the fact there are no easy answers, no solution where we get it all, no TCA without trade barriers, and so on. A good start would be to admit that, and we're not there yet.

theguardian.com/politics/2023/…
While the London politicians are slowly getting round to rethinking UK cakeism, UK organisations in Brussels are thinking of what can actually be done in the coming years. Worth bearing in mind.
Might just be suggesting this time we don't rely on the 'great and good' to define a UK EU relationship...
Read 4 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 aka @DavidHenig@mastodonapp.uk Profile picture
Feb 11
All indicators point this way. But as per the original Protocol I would point out that all of the detail entailed in applying rules out of their original context will throw up continual challenges, technically. Before we consider the politics.
I recall carrying out a study in early 2020 on some Protocol detail which suggested many problems ahead from quotas to medicines, to be told at that time by the Commission they wouldn't be a problem. I hope we're not going to repeat the mistake of think everything sorted.
So at some time soon we're going to get the announcement of a Northern Ireland protocol deal. But what is that actually going to mean? For actual trade, and politics in Northern Ireland. This is why modern negotiations are not normally a secret, they have to be implemented.
Read 9 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 aka @DavidHenig@mastodonapp.uk Profile picture
Feb 10
Flatlining to shrinking UK economy, and a government under pressure from its party to pursue only the outdated / discredited tax cut / deregulation agenda.

Actually the first thing it needs to do is ditch the hugely damaging, destabilising Retained EU Law Bill.
Two years of data now paints a pretty convincing picture of the effects of putting up trade barriers to the nearest market, and they are as expected, the UK uniquely below the pre-covid economic position with this as the major change in that time. Sovereignty first costs.
The other major factor now over six years has been the uncertainty around the UK economy, which has quite evidently been a drain on investment, the effects of which will have reduced trend growth further from an already low place.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 aka @DavidHenig@mastodonapp.uk Profile picture
Feb 8
So, is this really the end for Global Britain and trade as the great Brexit benefit after just two Trade Agreements, both of which the EU will soon have as well? Premature, but reflects some realities trade folk knew but government weren't keen on... politico.eu/article/rishi-…
One major foreseen problem, there was an assumption that despite a global backlash against trade, UK deals would be popular, and critics were simply protectionists. Ministers and senior officials ignored lessons from TTIP, failed to take people with them ecipe.org/publications/a…
Second problem with the Global Britain agenda, the EU already had more trade agreements than anyone else (still does, with UK close behind), so despite what was said there weren't lots of new markets to be found. Mostly the US and China in fact, both politically difficult.
Read 8 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 aka @DavidHenig@mastodonapp.uk Profile picture
Feb 7
Quick reaction on the now confirmed Business and Trade merger. Should be a positive step in grounding trade policy in our sectoral needs, and understanding the importance of trade to regulatory policy.

But current priorities (e.g. EU Law Bill) need to be dealt with.
I'd have thought it is a promotion for Kemi Badenoch compared to Grant Shapps, and certainly for Greg Hands to Party Chair, though he'll be back on trade one day I'm sure...

Though now even more she is responsible for balancing Brexit purity with trade priorities.
Other things to watch - new Select Committee structures in Commons (Business and Trade will be a biggie), Labour shadows (Ed Miliband presumably energy, but who gets Business and Trade?), locations for new departments.
Read 6 tweets

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