Shelling locations reported by UA general staff today.
10 day shelling location heat map.
Overview images
Weather by @davidhelms570
It's getting warmer in the south and the snow is probably melting. This could have a negative affect on the RU attempts to advance in the Vuhledar direction.
Kupyansk
The AFU repulsed an attack in the area of Hryanykivka. Continued attempts by 138th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade to force the AFU to the west side of the Oskil river.
There are reports about some units from 2nd Guards Taman Motor Rifle Division arriving in this area on the Russian side of the border. They have been in Belarus for a few months restoring combat capability. It's likely we will see increased activity by RuAF in this area.
Kreminna
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Nevs'ke, Kreminna, Kuzmine and Shypylivka. RuAF use a large mix of VDV, 3rd MRD, 144th GMRD 2nd AK, BARS units supported by 1st Mobile CBRN brigade from Central MD to attack in this area. These units have been refilled with mobiks
Video of BMPT in the Kreminna direction. Geolocated further west than I had RU forces previously.
Sivers'k
South of the river the AFU repulsed an attack in the area of Bilohorivka (still controlled by the AFU)
2nd Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade and/or Akhmats might have advances around 1k in the Berestove area.
Bakhmut
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Fedorivka, Paraskoviivka and Bakhmut. Attacks are mainly done by a mix of VDV and PMC Wagner. It seems to me like the RuAF attacks get weaker and weaker. It could be AFU getting stronger and stronger too.
UA telegram channel report about AFU counter attack south of Bakhmut and Krasna Hora still not being captured.
They also posted an image with the text "Under control" t.me/bahshid2023
Considering all recent reports, it seems the AFU are pushing back a bit around Bakhmut. Previously we have seen the AFU reset months of RU progress in a few days. Will be interesting to see if something similar will happen now (not months this time since RU have advanced faster)
Donetsk
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Vodyane, Marinka and Pobjeda. RuAF keep attacking in the Vuhledar area, despite some contractor reports on twitter.
Units in the Vuhledar direction
40th and 155th Naval Infantry, 14th Special Purpose, 114th, 36th, 37th Brigade.
305th and 3rd Kalmius Artillery Brigade
Cascade detachment
95th, 113th Regiment.
Alga and 3rd TD Battalion
The reason the confidence is low, is a lack of data. They simply dont have enough information to know yet. Desplite that, the US President proclaims complete destruction, an assesment likely based more on his whishes than any intelligence.
Furthermore, they are trying to supress any discussion about this and might actually prevent the DIA to do their job properly, they know a negative report will not be precieved well by the White House.
Hegseth also tells a story which does not align with reality. We have all seen the pictures. There isnt a mountain of rubble. Hegseth says he have seen it all, and i wonder if it was during his time as prison guard or if it was during his time as a instructor?
I have seen speculations about some of the HEU and centrifuges being moved to the new underground facilities (UGF) south west of Natanz main compound. I do not belive this is the case, I think the tunnel complex to the SW of the main facility is unfinished. Here is why
The main compound is secured by at least five layers of fencing and walls, with three checkpoints required to enter the facility.
Compare this to the new UGF complex to the SW.
Only two tunnels have extra fencing, the wall and fencing around it is incomplete. There are clear sings of construction work going in near the tunnel entrances.
A lot of people are asking what we see in this image.
The two orange circles show where the impacts were, 3 holes at each circle making it 6 in total. There is no other visible damage.
Image from @michaelh992