Thread by @TrentTelenko

This @BA_Friedman criticism of the @TheStudyofWar statement "Russia has operational initiative" is correct.

Putin's insistence on offensive operational tempo is not a substitute for real military initiative.

"Spoiling attacks" need something to spoil.

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https://twitter.com/BA_Friedman/status/1625580298032259072

The recent series of Russian attacks at Vuhledar are the case study on this.

With what assets are the Russians attacking with? Most of their professional army no longer exists. The replacement equipment is mostly de-mothballed 1960s and 1970s junk.

The extinction level
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...event that happened to the Russian Army artillery forward observer corps can't be fixed in this war.

That's one of the biggest reasons why the Russians are losing at least a thousand souls a day in the current attacks.

AFU being on the defensive now is utterly

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...consistent their "Death of a Thousand Cuts" anti-logistics strategy.

And by that I mean Putin's insistence on Russian Army attacks now is preventing a Russian Army build up of an artillery ammunition reserve against future events.

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The future event being the now certain Ukrainian operational level counter attacks in late Spring/Summer 2023 lead by a "Petting Zoo" of late Cold War NATO MBT designs.

There are none so blind as those who do not wish to see.

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Putin's Russia is playing the game card of "Push everywhere, something will break" in Ukraine.

The Russian Army, the fools.

6/6 End