Magnitude measures the size of the quake - but how much shaking you feel depends on how close you are to the fault, the materials under your feet, and more.
Intensities are calculated by measuring shaking with seismometers. When shaking is very strong, only certain kinds of seismometers - those designed to record strong ground motions - will work: more sensitive ones clip, or go off scale.
The most common number seismologists report for shaking is PGA, or Peak Ground Acceleration. This is the highest acceleration the seismometer experienced during the shaking. The units are a fraction of g, the acceleration due to gravity.
Since PGA is measured in units of g, if PGA = 1, then the station accelerated sideways as much as it usually accelerates down due to gravity, at least for a moment in time!
PGA can be matched to intensity.
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Matching PGA to intensity is very important.
1st, it allows us to understand the impact of modern events.
2nd, it allows us to interpret historical records of shaking to quantify past quakes. Since earthquakes are infrequent, understanding historical events is critical.
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Why does shaking vary so much in a single earthquake?
The biggest issue is distance. Monday's M7.8 earthquake was caused by slip on a fault that is >250 km long. On average, areas close to high-slip zones shook more than those further away.
Site amplification might explain why, in Turkey's M7.8 earthquake, stations within a couple of km of each other recorded wildly different peak ground accelerations.
Here, stations range from 0.37g to 1.37g!
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Geotechnical engineers can assess the potential for site amplification in advance. This is a great tool for reducing earthquake vulnerability, because it side-steps the fact that we can't know which earthquake will happen next - amplification will happen for any earthquake.
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But peak ground acceleration (PGA) on its own isn't sufficient.
There's a lot that PGA does not measure, including
-how long the shaking lasted, and
-frequencies of shaking
These factors can dramatically change the damage of the event.
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The frequency of shaking can have a big impact on building damage, because different height buildings resonate at different frequencies!
High frequencies resonate with short buildings.
Low frequencies resonate with tall buildings.
So the damage can change depending on the shaking frequency & built environment.
Example: In the 2015 M7.8 Nepal quake, there was less high frequency shaking - & because most of the buildings in Kathmandu are short, damage was lower than expected!
In contrast, in 1985, shaking from a M7.5 earthquake almost 400 km from Mexico City resonated within ancient lake sediment below the city. The resonance frequency matched that of many buildings, leading to widespread damage.
Since frequencies are important, the USGS also reports the Peak Spectral Acceleration - the peak acceleration experienced for different frequencies. This is also reported as a fraction of g, but only represents part of the total shaking.
Planning for earthquake safety therefore requires more than just knowing possible earthquake magnitudes. Where are the faults, exactly? How much slip might we see, on which parts? What is underneath the buildings? How will those buildings resonate? How might they fail?
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Every year geologists & engineers make progress on these questions; every earthquake teaches us new lessons.
We need public support to keep learning, and to keep implementing lessons learned.
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For almost every large earthquake, I could truthfully state:
"This earthquake was larger than any ever observed on this fault."
The Earth is slow! The biggest earthquakes occur with 100s of years in between.
That's why geologists don't rely only on the historical record!
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To understand the hazard of a fault, geologists look at:
-Long-term deformation of the ground
-Offsets recorded by sediments
-Computer models of slip
-Deformation recorded by GPS across the region
-Microseismicity
-Models of shallow sediments, which can amplify shaking
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The hazard of the East Anatolian Fault is well known, and represented by this seismic hazard map:
Here you can see satellite images of this area before and after the earthquake. The block is a triangular region between two gulleys.
Shaking destabilized the slope, and a block about 150x250 m2 slid ~40 m downslope.
Credit: Dr. Kyle Bradley
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The blocks in the valley exposed in the video show the layered sediments. It is likely that a layer of tilted sediment is weak - perhaps clay or a similar material - and slid.
That layer may extend over a wider area, putting more regions at risk.
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With the last two large events on this fault segment occurring in 1509 and 1766, and a suggested recurrence interval of ~200-250 years, this part of the fault may produce an earthquake at any time.
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The fault segments highlighted here could produce ~M7. But Monday's earthquakes in southern Turkey ruptured multiple segments in a complex series, increasing the resulting magnitude. That kind of multi-fault rupture could happen here too.
Today's M7.8 earthquake in Turkey occurred in the East Anatolian Fault zone.
Although this fault is a known hazard, the quake is unusual. Today's M7.8 released >2x as much energy as the largest recorded quakes in the region (M7.4).
Image credit: Kyle Bradley
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Earthquakes (most tiny) illustrate that the faults are not one, but many: a zone of complex deformation as the crust is crushed between converging plates.
This is part of the great collision zone that extends W to the Alps & E to the Himalaya.
Image credit: Kyle Bradley
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Here, the Arabian Plate is colliding northward with the Eurasian Plate. The East & North Anatolian faults work together: they allow the Anatolian block to squeeze westward out of the collision zone, like a watermelon seed out from your fingers.