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Calvin 🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
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Feb 15 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
El Salvador, population 6M, has gone 300 days without any homicides. Before Bukele took over, it was considered the most dangerous in the world. There were 382 homicides in the city of Los Angeles (3.8M pop) last year.

El Salvador now has the lowest murder rate in the Americas.
The previous administration - the one that the United States backed - didn't have a single day without homicides - in 4 years.

They called Bukele a tyrant. They said he was anti democracy. Funny how El Salvador now has peace and Bukele has an > 90% approval rating.
This was posted to the country's instagram account... "confirming that El Salvador reached the unprecedented number of 300 days without violent deaths on Tuesday."

instagram.com/p/CoslvqqvTWS/…
What's behind this unprecedented drop in violent crime? An unprecedented crack down on gang violence. Over 61,000 people have been detained. ImageImage
90 people died in police custody in November 2022 alone. To sum up why the homicide rate in El Salvador has cratered: they're getting rid of all the criminals.

Petty criminals are being imprisoned, violent criminals are being killed in police custody. A zero tolerance purge.
They changed the homicide definition/ to exclude:

- People killed in police custody
- People who die in prison
- People who die in confrontations with police

Are state executions without due process a good thing? Probably not. Is El Salvador's homicide rate dropping? Yes.

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More from @calvinfroedge

Calvin 🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Feb 16
Since oil prices peaked on 6/8/22, $PBR.A, the preferred shares of Petrobras which receive a minimum of 25% of net earnings via dividends by Brazilian law, out performed the largest US and Canadian oil companies in *total* return, despite a steep drop in share price.

$XOM $HES Image
How is this possible? How could $PBR.A have the worst stock price performance and the best total return?

Dividends, my friends. $PBR.A gives you exposure to Petrobras at a 10% cheaper price and with priority dividends and a minimum distribution by law.

My #2 position
So which way, western man? Pay up 2-10 times more for a laughable income stream from some US shit co?

Or the most technically competent deepwater driller on earth - the champion of Brazil's economy - who paid the largest dividend in the history of capitalism last year.

$PBR.A Image
Read 4 tweets
Calvin 🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Feb 16
POLITICAL RISK FOR $HES

Market cap is $45B, they produce 350k bpd of oil.

$EC produces > 2x as much oil, trades at half the market cap. $PBR produces 6x more oil and trades at only a 50% higher market cap.

$HES is investing heavily in Guyana, bulls attribute valuation to this.
Investors attribute this to "political risk" in Colombia and Brazil, and "blue skies" in Guyana.

Yet they don't seem to recognize the significant political risk in Guyana, or that they are investing in a developing nation that wants to set up their own national oil company. Image
I ask you - what's more likely - that the state oil companies of Colombia and Brazil - who are the #1 economic contributors in their respective countries - will be destroyed for no gain - or that Guyana will nationalize private investments from companies like $HES?
Read 7 tweets
Calvin 🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Feb 16
Just to show how important valuation and yield are. $CVE was a consensus long last summer. Then oil prices fell.

$PBR total return was flat b/c yield with some huge spikes to the upside that provided selling opps. $CVE peaked in June 2022 and never recovered - still expensive. Image
All of the American names trading at absurd valuations right now share the same problems: very little yield and priced for perfection. Holders of $XOM $OXY $HES $CVX etc. will find themselves highly exposed to lower commodity prices, and significant US political risk.
Biden wants to tax buybacks more aggressively. The lack of reinvestment by US majors has put US oil majors in the crosshairs. There is broad support for taxing buybacks similarly to dividends.

news.bloombergtax.com/tax-insights-a…
Read 8 tweets
Calvin 🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Feb 16
If we look at the past 3 years, which basically goes back to the beginning of the pandemic, $EC and $PBR under performed $XOM $CVX $OXY and $HES by a long shot. The American oil names have mooned, while $PBR and $EC remain well below pre covid levels. $EC even trades near lows. Image
Ironically, $EC, which has been the worst performer by far on a price basis, has been the best performer in terms of revenue growth, more than doubling revenue growth of $XOM $CVX and $HES Image
On an LTM return on equity basis, $EC has had the most stable returns, and better returns than $XOM $HES and $CVX. $PBR and $OXY had the best ROE. Image
Read 8 tweets
Calvin 🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Feb 15
Wrote a blog post about $ESP back in October. I sold my shares in the $18-$18.50 range as the company gets closer to fair market value.

Reasons to stay long: cyclical tail wind (defense), return of dividend (soon I think), employees own shares $18-21.

calvinfroedge.substack.com/p/espey-manufa…
I followed the company for a few years, held shares less than a year, bought near the absolute bottom, and sold for a 30-40% return on a 4% allocation.

Quality company and my decision to sell is not related to any concerns about the company, it's just my style to sell early.
Longer term, Espey has great asset, a high quality work force, and good CEO, and they are going to be strategically important for the United States as one of the only companies that manufactures avionics and advanced electronics for stuff like submarines and fighter jets.
Read 5 tweets
Calvin 🏴‍☠️ Profile picture
Feb 13
I want to preface this by saying I don't think all lawyers are bad people. But I have observed, especially here in Panama, many lawyers preying on the ignorant and elderly, or simply not doing a good job in due diligence or even doing their day to day job.
I think that in general, making "practicing law" something out of reach for most people makes the law worse, and the general population more ignorant and dependent, all for the benefit of the legal class.

The law should be something every citizen can actively participate in.
Having a narrow funnel for people that are allowed to write contracts, do certain filings, and create laws, just gives a small minority of people power the is frequently abused.

I am from an industry (software) where anyone who is able to do a job, does the job. It's free.
Read 4 tweets

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