I run https://t.co/aZcwecS4DZ, a shipping data service, and a Latin American real estate business.
3 added to My Authors
Sep 24 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
A personal, real life, US veteran, Russian speaking friend of mine in Crimea drove around Sevastopol in 2014, live streaming the "fake referendum" where guys with machine guns forced people to vote to join Russia.
Except there were no machine guns...
This friend lived in Ukraine since literally the early 90s. He was in Crimea for more than 20 years until the US backed coup forced him to leave.
During the video he commentates on the history of Crimea while driving to different polling stations to try to find the machine guns.
Sep 24 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
These photos were taken by me when I lived in Ukraine.
- Me in a Tatar village in Crimea
- a CCP rally in Simferopol
- A woman feeding birds in Kyiv
- A military supply advert
I was 20-21 years old while in Ukraine. My opinions are highly influenced by my time there.
Lots of firsts for me in Ukraine:
- Having a loaded AK47 pointed at me
- Seeing a street fight where the cops formed a circle and let two guys fight nearly to the death in public.
- Was picked up on the street and escorted to a Ukrainian mobster/ex KGB in a recruitment effort
Sep 22 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
It's fascinating to see the return of modern Russia to orthodox Christianity, after generations of atheism literally being the state religion of the USSR.
Those saying Putin wants to rekindle the Soviet Union fundamentally misunderstand Russian history. Putin is a Tsarist.
The USSR may have been necessary to withstand German aggression. But it absolutely hollowed out eastern Europe and central Asia, creating an entire generation of hundreds of millions orphans, single mothers, alcoholics, and nihilists - i.e. the worst demographics on earth.
Sep 16 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Here in Panama we are at the epicenter of the migrant crisis. They cross untold horrors in the Darien Gap. Panama feeds and busses them to Costa Rica if they make it through.
They go because American Libs like Biden and Harris told them to come.
Should Panama or Colombia bear all the burden? Should Texas or Arizona? You gotta ask hard questions about who should share responsibility.
California, Connecticut, and Massachusetts are the top 3 states for Sanctuary Cities. So isn't that logically where they should go?
Sep 15 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
According to Rybar, Iran is supplying huge amounts of kamikaze drones to Russia. Fits with recent observations of a number of flights from Tehran to Russian territory.
Another note on artillery shells, Russia reportedly raiding Kaliningrad and buying millions of artillery rounds from North Korea.
Thus far, the US has supplied ~800k rounds of 155m ammunition to Ukraine. The US only manufactures ~12k rounds PER MONTH.
Sep 14 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Let's talk about war crimes. Both sides do whatever it takes to win. And then the winner gets to execute surviving leadership from the other side for doing the same things they did themselves.
The only rule in war: don't lose.
WW2: was nuking Hiroshima and Nagasaki a war crime? How many combatants were in Hiroshima and Nagasaki? The bombardment of civilian populations was a war crime per the Hague Conventions of 1899 and 1907. Why weren't any Americans put in the chair for vaporizing 200,000 Japanese?
Sep 13 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
If Russia were able to recreate Chechnya across every oblast, they'd have the modern version of the Golden Horde.
Fearless, disciplined, and brutal, with double the birth rate of the rest of the country. The collective west is lucky there's only 1.5M of them.
Kadyrov's telegram is the craziest shit you will ever see 🤣 It's the Taliban with money and tech. These guys are a different breed, for sure.
Aug 11 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Re: the American intelligence question, I think that as a whole, the American consumer probably is the dumbest person on earth, but we make up for it with our evil elites, the remnants of 1940s culture that keep our industry running, and the Indians and Chinese we import...
I have a few interesting ways to visualize this. First, Gini Coefficients...The US has had rising inequality for decades. Our Gini score is about the same as Zimbabwe. Yet it's the easiest place in the world to get a loan or start a business.
The US is a wolf and sheep society.
Aug 10 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
I didn't lose much on $VTNR due to (ironically) my hedging, but I feel bad that others have.
My personal takeaway is to be wary when someone is making dramatic changes to their model which introduces lots of complexity and risk. On a speculative position, expect volatility.
We knew $VTNR was acquiring a new asset. They went from being responsible for a $1-1.5M/day operation to being responsible for a $30-35M/day operation.
There are obviously things they didn't know, and still don't know, and it was dumb to assume no surprises.
Aug 9 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
$VTNR Q2 now that I've had time to digest:
- 51% margin vs 2-1-1 crack
- 90M on crude swap loss, half realized, part of COGS
- 47M interest expense realized up front
- 23M loss on intermediation agreement (hedged production?)
- 9M acquisition costs
There's a silver lining here.
13.3M of their inventory had costs realized in Q2 but wasn't sold till Q3, so some of it is timing.
Nearly 80M of these costs are non recurring. The company is still forecasting meeting its capex needs RD conversion from free cash flow.
Jun 25 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Anyone pointing to "product supplied" from EIA as a demand proxy shows a lack of understanding of what the numbers mean.
"Product supplied" is a proxy for how much fuel is being transferred to distributors, not how much fuel consumers are buying.
To illustrate this point, I would ask what happens to "product supplied" if there were, for instance a 500k bpd refinery knocked out by a fire. Product supplied would drop, but that has nothing to do with consumer demand.
"Product supplied" proxy for *refinery output*.
Jun 25 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
I don't have blind faith oil will stay strong, and I acknowlede the oil market is rightly considered as somewhat opaque. There are two factors giving me confidence:
#OOTT#COM#EFT $XLE $XOP $OIH $CL_F
So first on crack spreads. This is your sanity check on "is demand destruction occurring". The crack spread is the difference between the price of crude and the price of products like gasoline and diesel. At incredible, historic, world beating levels.
What does this imply?
Jun 24 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I would encourage you to look closely at BW Energy. BW Group is a world class management team well known in shipping i.e. $bwlpg $hafni.ol $dht
$bwe.ol at $100 oil just generates stupid cash flow over the next few years as production ramps, many multiples of current mcap.
This one has been discusssed quite a bit in Marhelm. Low political risk, high quality assets, pristine balance sheet, tons of cash, crazy production increases.
Im as sure as anything that this one is a long term winner, even at a mid cycle oil price.
Jun 22 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Two other sources that I trust (including fuel volume data) tell me volumes are up.
Here's a question. Would Bloomberg intentionally mislead you to help the DNC? It is owned by raging liberal Mike Bloomberg...
The main lobby of the hotel was not operating, the bar was not staffed, the pool area was empty. The only guests in the hotel were passengers from cancelled flights...
Jun 18 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
If we go on Q1 numbers ($101 Brent), $PBR is at 1.2x EBITDA, 2.15x GAAP EPS. They've paid out 23% in dividends in the past 90 days. Div policy is 60% of FFO-Capex.
That's just silly dude.
Main investments going forward are in refining and gas, which are the relatively weaker segments. Exporting crude production is the big money maker and what's driving the massive dividends.
Jun 17 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Here's some reality on the prospect of a US international export ban. First, let's consider what the main US exports are:
Diesel, gasoline, propane, and other oils (like lubricants and additives).
If the US blocks exports, it will *devastate* the world economy.
We send a lot of diesel and gasoline to Mexico, Canada, Netherlands, Brazil, Venezuela...
We send a lot of Naphtha to Japan and Europe. Below is a visualization of clean tanker charters headed to other countries, from my shipping data production Marhelm:
Jun 16 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
A few of the world's largest cities. Where is the demand destruction, again?
Flight stats...2022 is tracking ahead of 2019 levels for total flights. Commercial flights are behind 2019, assuming the balance is being made up by mostly increased military activity (which btw, fighter jets burn a LOT ton of fuel - which $INT sells)
Jun 16 • 10 tweets • 1 min read
At what net worth would you consider spending 100k on a car you use for just getting around?
At what net worth would you not give a second thought to spending $1000 on a single meal?
Jun 13 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Running Venezuelan crude through American/European refineries fixes some big problems politically - namely gasoline price and providing fuel oil for electricity.
Diesel and naptha will suffer, but peak diesel season is spring planting, so it's a good trade off.