I feel like oil investors don't understand the difference between highly depleted locations like Texas and much younger oil locations in Latin America.

My thesis is this, my Latin American countries are basically Texas in 1920s, i.e. decades of cheap conventional oil ahead. 🧵 The Texan oil industry began its birth in 1866, just after the civil war, in a little town between Houston and Dallas called Nagodoches.

A man named Lyne T. Barret used an auger, fastened to a pipe to drill that first well.

$GPRK and cheaper on produced/developing reserves basis than LatAm majors $EC and $PBR.

Market likes to throw around 3P numbers like they mean something, but the rubber hits the road with PDP - i.e. actual producing wells. PXT.TO
$GPRK $PXT.TO $PTALF all cheaper than $EC and $PBR on P/E basis

Several liberal states will lose 2024 electoral college votes due to declining populations.

This trend can be weaponized by conservative cities and states to increase their population and electoral college weights, increase property values, and harm the DNC.

Here's a guide...

1) Economic incentives

A conservative voter in a liberal district in California has no value to anyone. These people should be prioritized for relocation to conservative states, especially in places where conservative majorities are being eroded.

In order to do this, incentives can be offered at the state and local level offering additional incentives such as income and property tax breaks based on political affiliation.

Additional incentives can be provided to those who start businesses and employ others.

To receive the benefits, people must be LEAVING a DNC controlled area AND show a history of conservative voting.

These benefits would expire after a given timeframe.

2) Targeted advertising and ambassadors

Conservative states can purchase ads and send people on the ground to infiltrate churches, PTA boards, etc. in liberal areas and raise awareness of this relocation plan.

The goal will be to make these prospective migrants aware of the strategy and communicate the incentives to them.

3) Financial incentives for developers

A new form of tax free bonds, similar to muni bonds, can be introduced at the state and local level. These bonds will target building housing for the new migrants.

4) Social and cultural targeting

While people of means may be the ones who can afford to simply relocate, they aren't the only ones who offer value.

Scholarship programs can be set up specifically for students who meet a certain political profile and come FROM a DNC controlled area.

The idea would be to rob DNC controlled areas of young people, and relocate conservatives to areas where they will have a greater impact. @Robert_Aderholt @RepMarkAlford @RepRickAllen @MarkAmodeiNV2 @RepArmstrongND @RepArrington @RepBrianBabin @RepDonBacon @RepJimBaird @RepBalderson @RepJimBanks @RepAndyBarr @RepAaronBean @RepBentz @RepJackBergman @RepBice @RepAndyBiggsAZ @RepGusBilirakis @RepDanBishop @RepBoebert @RepBost @RepBrecheen @VernBuchanan @RepKenBuck @RepLarryBucshon @RepTimBurchett @michaelcburgess @RepEricBurlison @KenCalvert @RepKatCammack @RepMikeCarey @RepJerryCarl @RepBuddyCarter @JudgeCarter @RepCiscomani @RepBenCline @RepCloudTX @Rep_Clyde @TomColeOK04 @RepMikeCollins @RepJamesComer @RepRickCrawford @RepDanCrenshaw @RepJohnCurtis @WarrenDavidson @RepMonicaDLC @DesJarlaisTN04 @RepDesposito @MarioDB @RepDonaldsPress

When I was 24 I was volunteering for Richard Stallman, who was telling us to not use literally any product created by big tech because it would take away our freedom.

We all thought he was fucking crazy of course, but it turned out he was right about literally everything. Those were early days in the censorship state. Snowden had only recently blown the whistle on PRISM. I read his book "Permanent Record" and obviously ignored everything he had to say.

I remember Stallman walking into the office, pointing at my Mac, and saying, "WTF is that."

Have you guys stopped and wondered how Israel has been so good at targeting Hamas/Hezbollah VIPs?

IMO they have backdoors in all the messaging apps.

Only chance these guys really have is to use Chinese/Russian software on Chinese phones. WhatsApp claims on its marketing site that it is "end to end secured" and "nobody can read your messages except you and the person you're chatting with, not even whatsapp"

Yet Reuters reported in 2021 on journalists having their Whatsapp accounts blocked.

$META owns Whatsapp

If you're a married American and make ~$250k/yr and can work online earning an active income, I'm going to outline a strategy that will allow you to build millions in equity that will be nearly completely tax free.

You don't need foreign companies or complex structures. The first concept that you need to know about is the FEIE (Foreign Earned Income Exclusion), which is detailed here on the IRS website.

If you're a married American, you get an income tax exclusion on the first $240k in earned income.

.irs.gov/individuals/in…

If you think the Chinese government would not orchestrate the most insane stock rally in history following the absolute shit show of the past few years during a Dragon Year, you've obviously never met anyone from mainland China, much less worked with one. Zodiac is everything. If a Chinese couple is dating, they will literally wait for years to get married just to say they did it in a dragon year.

Business applications soar. People make risky investments. They build houses.

EVERY SINGLE PERSON IN CHINA believes Dragon Year is the time to go big.

I took 4 pieces of oil data and indexed them. Here's what that data told me:

- Oil equipment orders are near the lowest levels of the past 20 years
- Oil producer costs (PPI) are at the highest level of the past 20 years
- Employment in the O&G sector is at an all time low Now what about the oil price?

While the oil price index is closer to the highs than the lows, the last times we saw so little investment and employment in the sector, the price increased meaningfully.

Oil has not seen sufficient investment and the price is bound to increase.

First impressions of Argentina: completely failed state.

I was traveling with a few thousand dollars worth of numismatic and collectible items.

Customs made me leave everything in a sealed bag at the airport to be retrieved when I leave.

Absolute insanity. I got a signed affidavit and I visually inspected that they sealed the bag and where it was being stored.

But I mean if you're literally policing people on bringing silver coins and old pieces of paper into your country...

The fact that they are even policing this is crazy.

This will be my 8th full year living in Panama. I have run multiple businesses here for more than five years.

I wanted to offer my perspective on what it's actually like, and if I would recommend Panama to newcomers.

I'll make a more complete blog post, but here goes... 🧵 First, what's to like?

1) Territorial tax - you will pay a 0-2% effective tax rate on your foreign income.
2) English broadly spoken
3) Some really beautiful areas
4) Access to a lot of fancy stuff if you pay for it
5) Big melting pot, people from all over the world

Why do I think the Houthis are such a force to be reckoned with? Why do I think there is actually a chance they could defeat a US led coalition?

Time for a thread 🧵. First, who are the Houthis? Where are they from?

The Houthis come from the Yemeni province of Sa'dah, on the edge of the Arabian desert.

They're a Shiite Muslim group whose roots go back to ancient times, when they produced frankincense and myrrh, two important ancient spices.

Possible outcomes I see w Suez Canal:

- The Navy arrives and Captain America mops up the Houthis by 9:30 AM Monday morning so stocks can rally all week like we all expect and deserve
- The Navy is cautious and keeps out of range because there is actual danger. Slow progress. - The Navy engages and attacks Houthi facilities and Yemeni cities. Iran responds, triggering a larger war.
- The Navy attempts to cover individual ships at great expense and with continued mishaps. Ships continue to avoid the canal. The Navy is unable to stop the attacks.

Time for my "why are we so bearish oil" thread, I'm gonna be looking at 10 year seasonal EIA data.

Let's start with total oil+product inventories - a 10 year low. Gasoline. We started the year at the bottom of 10 year seasonal levels and now we're in the middle of the range. So probably a bit over supplied there.

$VTNR is a profitable company that looks loss making due to large interest expense realization in Q2 on extinguished debt.

Going forward:

- Lower interest expense (< 1/2 YTD levels)
- Lower capex (1/4 of 2022 levels, 1/3 of 2023 levels) Market totally ignored the Q3 beat. The market is worried about debt. The most egregious portion of that debt load (Term loan due April 2025) had prepayment penalties expire on October 1st.

I expect refinance or pay down. This company is A LOT healthier than it looks at first glance. Half cash on hand for payoff.

This is one of the most important charts in the world, expressing one of the most profound economic stories of the last century.

Let me explain. After WW2, at the center of the new world monetary order was the need to establish trust in the currency of the world's dominant military power.

Despite having taken the US off the gold standard during the new deal, it was decided gold backing was essential to produce faith.

A possible catalyst for $EC is that Colombian court hearings just started on the legality of royalty non deductibility, which was one of the tax changes Petro introduced.

If overturned, it will have a material positive impact on $EC taxation impact.

asuntoslegales.com.co/actualidad/cor… If royalty deductibility is upheld - and there are a number of private claimants here who feel they have a strong legal case - it could lead to positive restatement of Colombian E&P results for 2023.

Fingers crossed for some extraordinary dividends 🤞

There is no parallel, going back to the formation of Israel as a state, for yesterday's attack.

It was the single bloodiest day for Israel in its entire history as a nation. Despite a number of incursions and conflicts, Israel hasn't declared war officially since 1973.

During the entire 1973 Yom Kippur war, Israel suffered only 2,688 lost IDF and no civilian casualties.

In 24 hours Israel has seen at least 600 dead and 5000 wounded.

Israel has declared war and has already started flattening Gaza, where 2 million people live in an area about the size of Brooklyn and Queens.

This is going to get very ugly, very fast, and a lot of the Arab world is going to side with Gaza. There will be violence globally. Israel is calling up reservists from all over the world. The destruction is going to be on a biblical scale. You are going to see horrific images from both sides. It will make Ukraine look like a gentlemanly duel.

Arab countries will face enormous pressure to aid Palestine.

90% of Spain's population lives in 12% of the territory. There are entire towns in rural Spain that are abandoned.

European feminism is driving this (the women going to the city for jobs), and it's presenting a massive opportunity to low net worth investors.

Let's dive in. First, I want to point out that you don't need to buy any real estate to take advantage of this trend.

Your goal is to spend as little as possible, and reinvest everything you can. Let's say you have a $1M net worth. You need to reinvest (in my view) at least 8.5% every year.

Wanna be a millionaire in your early 30s? I'll tell you how I did it.

When I was young I learned a marketable skill and read books.

I dropped out of high school. I didn't go to college. I never even had a full time job. I moved to the middle of nowhere in a developing country. I paid $300 per month for my first apartment and worked online. At 18, I rented a room in the ghetto in Memphis and worked 12 hours a day in contract coding jobs at $50/hr.

I moonlighted at $65/hr. I didn't have a mattress. I slept in a sleeping bag on the floor.

In May 2022, I was sitting around a campfire with a friend and he asked me what my best investment idea was. I told him $YPF 2024 calls.

I then went inside and wrote a blog post about $YPF. 57 people paid $5 each to read that blog post. Since then, $YPF didn't just out perform its peers, it out performed $NVDA, $META, $AMD, $TSLA, and all of the other hot money hype stocks.

This was an idea that at the time, the market thought was worth exactly $285.