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Sir Pickle

@SirPickle_

May 16

OVERSIMPLIFIED: Fair Value Gaps

Beginners, this oversimplified series is for you🫵

Your eyes will be opened on how powerful fair value gaps are and how to pick the right ones.

A mini-thread🧵

What is a Fair Value Gap?

There are two types of fair value gaps:

1. Bullish Fair Value Gaps
2. Bearish Fair Value Gaps

Both are a three-candle pattern, wherein the fair value gap is the gap between the first and third candles.

High-probability Fair Value Gaps

The best fair value gaps are created from previous fair value gaps.

Price respecting a fair value gap means we are in confirmed orderflow. Simply put, the trend is extremely strong and can be trusted to continue in that same direction.

Read 9 tweets

Sir Pickle

@SirPickle_

Apr 2

Your FVGs don’t work because you’re NOT trading within a killzone.

After reading this thread, you’ll know EXACTLY how killzones affect your trading.

A thread🧵

What is a “killzone”?

Killzone are specific times during the trading day where volatility is typically higher.

Volatility brings energy into the market creating high probability FVGs that we can trade off of.

This volatility will always be ideal for scalpers and intraday traders.

Killzones are typically aligned with Red Folder News releases.

This brings in the volatility needed for the price to seek liquidity or rebalance an imbalance.

Personally, I focus on the New York session, which is 8:30 AM to 12:00 PM EST.

You can also use 2:00 AM - 5:00 AM for the London session and 8:00 PM - 12:00 AM for the Asian session.

Read 9 tweets

Sir Pickle

@SirPickle_

Mar 15

𝗪𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗮 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝘄𝗵𝘆 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝘄𝗶𝗻 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝗹𝗲 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗲? 𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗹𝘂𝗰𝗸 — 𝗶𝘁’𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗵.

You need to learn to 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 and not get caught on the outcomes of each individual trade.

Let the numbers play out!

Let’s dive into those numbers in this thread🧵

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗟𝗮𝘄 𝗼𝗳 𝗟𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲 𝗡𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿𝘀?🔢

It’s a concept in probability theory which is a game-changer for traders.

LLN tells us that as you INCREASE the number of trades, your average OUTCOME gets CLOSER to your strategy’s EXPECTED result.

Simply, the more you trade, the more your results will reflect your edge.

𝗛𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘀 𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘀?🪙

In just a few flips, you might see a streak of heads or tails PURELY by chance.

But after many flips, you’ll land close to a 50/50 split.

The result will revert to the mean value in the long run.

This is the Law of Large Numbers in action—short-term randomness evens out in the long run.

Read 7 tweets

Sir Pickle

@SirPickle_

Mar 8

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗞𝗘𝗬 𝘁𝗼 𝗕𝗶𝗮𝘀📈

(Read until the end and I’ll DM you the FULL guide that changed my trading forever!)

A thread🧵

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗳𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗲 (𝗛𝗧𝗙) 𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁… 1️⃣

Scan the monthly, weekly, and daily for context aligned with HTF orderflow.

In my Summit Model, if I don’t see the context on one of those three timeframes, I move to another pair.

This filters out the low-probability movements that can occur for several pairs.

𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗺 𝗜 𝘀𝗲𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗿𝘂𝘀𝗵 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟭𝗺 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗳𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗲.❌

You are blindsiding yourself by not looking at the bigger picture.

I’ve done that before and I’m telling you, it won’t end well.

So let me repeat the reminder again: STOP rushing to the lower timeframes! Take a moment to analyze the higher timeframes first!

Read 9 tweets

Sir Pickle

@SirPickle_

Feb 28

Predicting the next candle is quite simple, actually.

(Stick around until the end and I’ll DM you some thing special)

A thread🧵

First, let’s define this simple and specific logic.🧠

More specifically, the candlestick logic of bullish and bearish respect candles.

Respect candles are candles with a large wick and small body indicating a rejection off of a PD array.

These candles can help you see LTF orderflow👀

Price is fractal and with candlestick logic, we can then use one candle to view LTF price movements.

This candlestick logic gives you the bird’s eye view of the asset that you are currently looking at.

For respect candles, see how after tapping into the premium/discount array, price immediately formed an impulse shift.

Read 10 tweets

Sir Pickle

@SirPickle_

Feb 21

𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗽 𝘄𝗮𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗦𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁𝘀 (𝗠𝗦𝗦) 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗱𝗼 𝗧𝗛𝗜𝗦 𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗮𝗱…

At the end of this thread, you’ll understand the SIMPLE entry model I used to gain over a million in prop funding.

A thread🧵

𝗜𝗳 𝘆𝗼𝘂’𝗿𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝘁𝗼 𝗺𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁, 𝗜 𝗮𝗹𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗳𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲.✌️

Price only does 2 things:

1. Seek Liquidity
2. Offer Fair Value

Understanding this will give you a simple and accurate view of market direction.

𝗦𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗜 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗳𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗲𝘀…👀

Let’s focus on LTF entries. Specifically, Impulse shifts.

We want to use timeframe alignment given in the IRL → ERL video (link at the end of the thread)

Timeframe alignment allows us to trade with the HTF direction giving us a higher-probability intraday trades.

Read 11 tweets

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