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Sir Pickle

@SirPickle_

Sep 5

If you're not following this process, you’re entering the trading week blind

It is literally what I implement every week to get the high-probability trades that I’m taking.

Finish this thread and you’ll master the simple weekly trading process.

A thread🧵

The economic news calendar is your roadmap.

It shows you what day during the week will likely provide volatility to trade with.

You see, news is what injects volatility into the market. Volatility = energy

Price is highest probability to trade when there is ENERGY in the markets.

This is when we see price in a hurry to get to its draws and not chop/consolidate.

We want to be EXTRA cautious on days without red folder news since assets have an increased chance of consolidating during those days.

We also wanna be cautious the day before NFP, CPI, and FOMC. Price typically likes to be held in a range as it awaits the main volatility injector for the week.

Lack of news = Lack of energy

We want to avoid trading bank holidays as the volatility simply isn’t there.

Below you’ll see the effect of bank holidays to the price action. We had USD bank holiday on Monday and see what the effect of it in major pairs.

So, to be aware of this: Go to forexfactory.com/calendar and ask yourself: “Where are the high impact news events laid out for this week? Which assets are they on? Is there Big 3 news events? Is there a bank holiday?”

Read 7 tweets

Sir Pickle

@SirPickle_

Aug 28

Give me 5 minutes and I’ll simplify your understanding of price action…

The only concepts you need to know in order to find bias are orderflow and candlestick logic.

At the end of this thread, you’ll have everything you need to read and trade any asset effectively.

A thread🧵

Orderflow and Candlestick Logic

These two concepts give you both the direction and the confirmation.

In a bullish orderflow leg, once bullish PD arrays are respected, then there’s a higher chance of price going higher.

In a bearish orderflow leg, once bearish PD arrays are respected, then there’s a higher chance of price going lower.

It’s that simple.

Everything you should know about Orderflow

Orderflow gives you the direction and targets through price legs.

Price legs are formed by swing highs/lows and fair value gaps.

Again, on a bullish orderflow, bullish PD arrays are respected and the opposite for bearish orderflow.

TIP: the best orderflow (price) legs comes from previous orderflow legs.

Lastly, I mainly trade once price retraces to the HTF FVG then we target the swing high/low based on the current orderflow. No orderflow (consolidation) = No trade.

Read 7 tweets

Sir Pickle

@SirPickle_

Aug 14

This rule helps me avoid unnecessary losses

The “magnet theory” rule states that the higher the timeframe, the stronger the pull.

By the end of this thread, you’ll learn the reason behind A LOT of your losses

A thread🧵

Magnet theory rule states that the higher the timeframe, the stronger the pull.

HTF FVGs act like strong magnets, drawing price toward them with more force than LTF FVGs

If a HTF FVG exists above your current setup, then that setup is lower-probability.

So for example:

There is a Weekly -FVG created above a 4h -FVG. That 4h FVG becomes lower probability

or

There is a hourly +FVG created below a 5m FVG. That 5m FVG becomes lower probability

Price will prioritize the higher timeframe array.

‘Are we creating a new FVG on the timeframe above?’

You don’t go straight to the daily timeframe and use whatever orderflow you see there as context.

You do a top-down analysis first because Monthly and Weekly FVGs will be prioritized before Daily FVGs.

Ask yourself constantly: 'Are we creating a new FVG on the timeframe above my current setup?'

If the answer is yes, then your setup is low probability.

Read 7 tweets

Sir Pickle

@SirPickle_

Jul 23

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗲…

An Impulse Shift is a clear footprint left by Smart Money when they flip the market's direction.

By the end of this thread, you’ll know how to spot it!

A thread🧵

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗻 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗦𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁?

It's a powerful, V-shaped reversal that occurs at a HTF level (your Context).

You're looking for a V-shaped displacement away from that key level. The Fair Value Gap created during this sharp move is the Impulse Shift.

𝗦𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗳𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗦𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁

The best case scenario for an impulse shift is when price does this:

1. FVG In: Price creates an FVG into the HTF level, luring traders into the "obvious" trend.
2. FVG Out: Price then displaces sharply away from the level, creating a new FVG and trapping those traders.

Price disrespects the orderflow by making an impulse opposite to the current orderflow. Hence the name, impulse shift.

Read 8 tweets

Sir Pickle

@SirPickle_

Jul 3

This is the best way to trade a FVG which failed to expand higher

It's called the “Pivot Context”, and it opens up an alternative way to frame trades

A thread 🧵

Before we proceed, you need to know about swing points.

There are two types of swing points:

1. 𝗦𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵: A 3-candle pattern forming an inverted V. Buyside liquidity rests above it.
2. 𝗦𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗟𝗼𝘄: A 3-candle pattern forming a V. Sellside liquidity rests below it.

Swing points are important because these are where we find resting liquidities that acts as a magnet for price.

Pivot Context is the move from 𝗦𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁 → 𝗦𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁.

It's a continuation pattern. Price takes liquidity at an external range (a swing high/low) and then aggressively seeks the opposing external range liquidity.

It's a hunt for stops, followed by a reversal

Read 9 tweets

Sir Pickle

@SirPickle_

Jun 27

There are only two types of price legs: the ones that hold… and the ones that retrace.

Let me oversimplify ‘High-probability Price Legs’ 🧵👇

What's a Price Leg?

Simply, a swing high and a swing low.

But what makes a price leg 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵-𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆?

First, its the presence of a Fair Value Gap in that leg💎

Second, magnet theory.

Having a price leg in context of the timeframe above it makes it higher probability.

This means that above the timeframe you’re looking at, there are no FVGs to pull price higher or lower relative to the high-probability leg.

This is also why you should do a top-down analysis and start in the monthly first, looking at the most recent leg, going to the weekly, the daily, and the 4h.

This aligns you with the HTF orderflow of price.

Read 8 tweets

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