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Sir Pickle

@SirPickle_

Jul 3

This is the best way to trade a FVG which failed to expand higher

It's called the “Pivot Context”, and it opens up an alternative way to frame trades

A thread 🧵

Before we proceed, you need to know about swing points.

There are two types of swing points:

1. 𝗦𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵: A 3-candle pattern forming an inverted V. Buyside liquidity rests above it.
2. 𝗦𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗟𝗼𝘄: A 3-candle pattern forming a V. Sellside liquidity rests below it.

Swing points are important because these are where we find resting liquidities that acts as a magnet for price.

Pivot Context is the move from 𝗦𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁 → 𝗦𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁.

It's a continuation pattern. Price takes liquidity at an external range (a swing high/low) and then aggressively seeks the opposing external range liquidity.

It's a hunt for stops, followed by a reversal

Read 9 tweets

Sir Pickle

@SirPickle_

Jun 27

There are only two types of price legs: the ones that hold… and the ones that retrace.

Let me oversimplify ‘High-probability Price Legs’ 🧵👇

What's a Price Leg?

Simply, a swing high and a swing low.

But what makes a price leg 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵-𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆?

First, its the presence of a Fair Value Gap in that leg💎

Second, magnet theory.

Having a price leg in context of the timeframe above it makes it higher probability.

This means that above the timeframe you’re looking at, there are no FVGs to pull price higher or lower relative to the high-probability leg.

This is also why you should do a top-down analysis and start in the monthly first, looking at the most recent leg, going to the weekly, the daily, and the 4h.

This aligns you with the HTF orderflow of price.

Read 8 tweets

Sir Pickle

@SirPickle_

May 16

OVERSIMPLIFIED: Fair Value Gaps

Beginners, this oversimplified series is for you🫵

Your eyes will be opened on how powerful fair value gaps are and how to pick the right ones.

A mini-thread🧵

What is a Fair Value Gap?

There are two types of fair value gaps:

1. Bullish Fair Value Gaps
2. Bearish Fair Value Gaps

Both are a three-candle pattern, wherein the fair value gap is the gap between the first and third candles.

High-probability Fair Value Gaps

The best fair value gaps are created from previous fair value gaps.

Price respecting a fair value gap means we are in confirmed orderflow. Simply put, the trend is extremely strong and can be trusted to continue in that same direction.

Read 9 tweets

Sir Pickle

@SirPickle_

Apr 2

Your FVGs don’t work because you’re NOT trading within a killzone.

After reading this thread, you’ll know EXACTLY how killzones affect your trading.

A thread🧵

What is a “killzone”?

Killzone are specific times during the trading day where volatility is typically higher.

Volatility brings energy into the market creating high probability FVGs that we can trade off of.

This volatility will always be ideal for scalpers and intraday traders.

Killzones are typically aligned with Red Folder News releases.

This brings in the volatility needed for the price to seek liquidity or rebalance an imbalance.

Personally, I focus on the New York session, which is 8:30 AM to 12:00 PM EST.

You can also use 2:00 AM - 5:00 AM for the London session and 8:00 PM - 12:00 AM for the Asian session.

Read 9 tweets

Sir Pickle

@SirPickle_

Mar 15

𝗪𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗮 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝘄𝗵𝘆 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝘄𝗶𝗻 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝗹𝗲 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗲? 𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗹𝘂𝗰𝗸 — 𝗶𝘁’𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗵.

You need to learn to 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 and not get caught on the outcomes of each individual trade.

Let the numbers play out!

Let’s dive into those numbers in this thread🧵

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗟𝗮𝘄 𝗼𝗳 𝗟𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲 𝗡𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿𝘀?🔢

It’s a concept in probability theory which is a game-changer for traders.

LLN tells us that as you INCREASE the number of trades, your average OUTCOME gets CLOSER to your strategy’s EXPECTED result.

Simply, the more you trade, the more your results will reflect your edge.

𝗛𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘀 𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘀?🪙

In just a few flips, you might see a streak of heads or tails PURELY by chance.

But after many flips, you’ll land close to a 50/50 split.

The result will revert to the mean value in the long run.

This is the Law of Large Numbers in action—short-term randomness evens out in the long run.

Read 7 tweets

Sir Pickle

@SirPickle_

Mar 8

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗞𝗘𝗬 𝘁𝗼 𝗕𝗶𝗮𝘀📈

(Read until the end and I’ll DM you the FULL guide that changed my trading forever!)

A thread🧵

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗳𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗲 (𝗛𝗧𝗙) 𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘁… 1️⃣

Scan the monthly, weekly, and daily for context aligned with HTF orderflow.

In my Summit Model, if I don’t see the context on one of those three timeframes, I move to another pair.

This filters out the low-probability movements that can occur for several pairs.

𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗺 𝗜 𝘀𝗲𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗿𝘂𝘀𝗵 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟭𝗺 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗳𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗲.❌

You are blindsiding yourself by not looking at the bigger picture.

I’ve done that before and I’m telling you, it won’t end well.

So let me repeat the reminder again: STOP rushing to the lower timeframes! Take a moment to analyze the higher timeframes first!

Read 9 tweets

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