For the record, the Russian attacks on Vuhledar have not "renewed doubts" for me.
The doubts have been there from the beginning.
Any offensive, carried out by an unprepared army, is always a failure.
A short 🧵 1/9
nytimes.com/2023/02/15/wor…
The doubts have been there from the beginning.
Any offensive, carried out by an unprepared army, is always a failure.
A short 🧵 1/9
nytimes.com/2023/02/15/wor…
I've not provided battlefield comments for some time because both forces are fighting hard, surviving the winter, and prep for respective offensives.
Right now, there's a race between mobilization (RU) and the preparation for planned offensives (UA). 2/
vox.com/2022/9/25/2337…
Right now, there's a race between mobilization (RU) and the preparation for planned offensives (UA). 2/
vox.com/2022/9/25/2337…
There are various estimates of how many "soldiers" (& criminals) RU has mobilized & sent to the front. I'd guess it's equal to or slightly greater than the initial invasion force (190K).
But as I've said many times, these are untrained forces. 3/
defense.gov/News/News-Stor…
But as I've said many times, these are untrained forces. 3/
defense.gov/News/News-Stor…
RU have been physically moved to "training locations," given shoddy equipment, seen the same poor leadership, & sent to the front without an understanding of what they were to do.
In western language, "their recruiters lied to them!" 4/
euromaidanpress.com/2023/02/12/rus…
In western language, "their recruiters lied to them!" 4/
euromaidanpress.com/2023/02/12/rus…
The Army in the east - Prigozhin's criminals or Gerasimov's "soldiers" - are not ready for any kind of offensive, large or small. They are "cannon fodder" or "cannon meat."
Putin forces action now, because he's concerned about future UA offensive. 5/
cnn.com/2023/02/14/eur…
Putin forces action now, because he's concerned about future UA offensive. 5/
cnn.com/2023/02/14/eur…
While ordering this, Putin prepares more missile strikes from what he has - planes & ships - to force Ukraine to do two things: fight on the front, and defend the population with air defense.
Putin is also now attacking from N &S with these strikes. 6/
rferl.org/a/belarus-russ…
Putin is also now attacking from N &S with these strikes. 6/
rferl.org/a/belarus-russ…
UKR is countering w/ a rabid defense in the Donbas & smaller offensives in Kherson.
They're defending against missile launches from multiple directions.
They're integrating multiple new weapons systems & the related logistics.
They're doing IPB. 7/
cnn.com/2023/01/22/eur…
They're defending against missile launches from multiple directions.
They're integrating multiple new weapons systems & the related logistics.
They're doing IPB. 7/
cnn.com/2023/01/22/eur…
IPB: Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield.
Reconnaissance. Looking for weak spots. Planning operations directed at key locations. Interdicting enemy supplies. Using SOF to hit targets behind the lines. Preparing logistics.
Smart operations. 8/
theguardian.com/world/2023/jan…
Reconnaissance. Looking for weak spots. Planning operations directed at key locations. Interdicting enemy supplies. Using SOF to hit targets behind the lines. Preparing logistics.
Smart operations. 8/
theguardian.com/world/2023/jan…
As I said: It is now a race between RU mobilization and UKR force preparedness and transformation.
The next few weeks will see tough fights, some back and forth, false declarations by RU of "victory."
But a Ukrainian spring is coming. 9/9
The next few weeks will see tough fights, some back and forth, false declarations by RU of "victory."
But a Ukrainian spring is coming. 9/9
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