Thread by @EllingUlrich

🇦🇹 Representative genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in Austria week 7, 2023 across all regions. Current analysis includes samples until February 8th allowing faithful nowcasting, sample numbers dropping though. A collaboration of #AGES @agesnews and @IMBA_Vienna/@oeaw.
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Current significant growth in incidence is almost exclusively due to XBB.1.5, that reached >50% of cases now.
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Only very few other lineages continue to show growth in absolute numbers as visualized when extrapolating shares of lineages to absolute reported numbers.
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FYI: Based on sewage analysis in Austria (blue), the current incidences surpass the BA.1-, BA.2-, and both BA.5-peaks while the reported case rate (orange) underlying the above analysis is significantly lower.
(open image for full timeline)
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abwassermonitoring.at/dashboard/

Full genome data from GISAID also illustrate growth of XBB.1.9.1, but this lineage will in all likelihood not become dominant any more before the XBB wave has peaked.
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The observed increase of XBB.1.5 is fairly synchronous across Austria. Shares of other lineages that will probably decline now was somewhat uneven.

👏🏼👏🏼Time to thank my team again for this amazing work every week! 🙇🏼‍♂️
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