Thread by @mbk_center

1. Here are the key points I tried to convey while presenting my book “How to slay the dragon” about Russia’s future at my first session at @MunSecConf. A thread
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2. I am convinced that this war is Putin’s war specifically. 50–20% of people courageously opposing the war under conditions of dictatorship—that’s a lot. Putin conducted a mobilisation and, with great difficulty, gathered 300,000 people.
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3. During WWII, the Soviet Union (with nearly the same population as in today’s Russia) mobilised 32 million soldiers in four years; today – 300,000 with difficulty. This war has not yet become a war of the Russian people. This is Putin’s war. 
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4. It’s painful that my country is taking part in this war. I believe it's fair that Putin and his army and unfortunately Russia that stands behind him will need to lose this war.
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5. I also believe that it's fair that all Russians are going to have to pay for this war and help to re-establish Ukraine with financial support. But we must not spread the responsibility for this war from Putin’s regime to every single Russian.
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6. We should understand that there’s passive support of the war — some people say that they support the war yet they are not ready to go and fight. And then there’s active support. This is something Putin is trying to achieve.
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7. He states, “The West says, that each one of you will be judged, and Russia will be chopped into pieces.” It’s a tool he uses to transform this war from Putin’s war to the Russian people’s war. This is what he was not able to achieve yet. Let’s not help him.
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8. It's impossible to change Russia today within a framework of existing legislation since it’s a dictatorship. Any change is going to be a revolution as it’ll go outside of the envelope of current legislation. However, a civil war is a different thing, which needs to be avoided

9. Democratic opposition. I have always been opposed to the idea of the united opposition of a single leader. Democratic opposition is good as there are many points of view on different issues. But today we’re united in the question of war.
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10. We’re firmly convinced that those who have not taken a clear antiwar position—against the aggression that was unleashed by Putin specifically—and don't wish Ukraine's victory cannot be called a true democratic opposition today. #MSC2023

11. Self-reflection. If with my compatriots, we don’t go through the period of repentance for what is being done today, for what has been done in the time of Stalin, then the prospects for my country in the foreseeable future don’t really exist. #MSC2023

12. I’ll never forget a conversation I had with Mr Genscher. When I was realised from jail I asked him why he had fought for me. He really did. And he said that given his past and service in the Wehrmacht, he promised himself to save the life of at least one Russian. #MSC2023

13. And it just happened so that “you became that Russian." Today he’s not with us any longer and I’m alive. Had he not helped me, I wouldn’t be here today. I know this to my great regret. This is the repentance that he laid upon himself. And this is a very important thing