🧵M3 Austin Dispatch
1) Astonishing, unbelievable, unprecedented.
Empty, empty castles everywhere in hill country. Bubble is too "light" a word to describe this oncoming storm - avalanche, tsunami - and no amount of "hope" of a soft landing, no landing will change this outcome
1) Astonishing, unbelievable, unprecedented.
Empty, empty castles everywhere in hill country. Bubble is too "light" a word to describe this oncoming storm - avalanche, tsunami - and no amount of "hope" of a soft landing, no landing will change this outcome
2) If I thought Nashville was bad, Austin is worse. In one stretch near Round Rock, I counted 7 or 8 new developments within a span of a mile. And then I turned, and there were more. $279 per sq ft seems to be the going rate in the suburbs and exurbs. 
3) I visited sites from most of the builders pictured in @RaleighFam's Tweet, and I believe even these numbers might be understated. They park the construction trucks and cars from the workers and pull the new garbage cans to the road to make it look like the homes are occupied.
4) They are not. Sheriffs at many sites. Many, many, many homes completed and empty. And then sites where most are unfinished. In the exurbs, signs of gas stations and grocery stores Coming Soon in 22! And then the mega sites, oh the mega sites
5) I didn't realize this was a thing, but a thing it is...saw it in Nash too. And this particular site will be on the lips of many investors and analysts I fear in the years to come. Huge, empty, many finished and they are still building up the hill. The size of this loss at
6) A scale greater than write-downs in the GFC. And, the exurbs...developments plopped in the middle of nowhere, closest gas station 10 minutes away, but built right on top of one another and according to a local teacher, one community was selected by investors as a 🔥 site
7) Not realizing it was a registered sex offender hotbed. Speculation in the truest sense of the word everywhere and the cleanup is hard to fathom. Not enough sheriffs to police these empty homes. And again, if every person who could afford these homes woke up tomorrow and
8) Moved to Austin there would still be too many homes. There is no inventory shortage in these cities and the scale of this is much worse than even I imagined (attaching my original article ICYMI). Heading east to FL and possibly Charlotte 🚒🚒🚒
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housingwire.com/articles/debun…
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housingwire.com/articles/debun…
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