🧵1) The themes we've been tracking for some time are summarized nicely here, illustrating how property taxes and insurance are crushing homeowners

Additionally, this article gives a great example of a private note sale....you know the unregulated mortgages no one knows about 2) "It finally sold in December but for about 17% below its initial listing price. Kissee said he had to offer the new owner a type of contract enabling the buyer to pay in installments, because the buyer couldn’t qualify for a traditional mortgage due to the insurance costs."

🧵New Home Sales
(Correction and more clarity)

1) New Home Sales announced yesterday - results were a mixed bag with some confusing tomfoolery in the Seasonal Adjustments (SA)

SA
+1.8% MOM vs +8% last month
+1.5% YOY vs +4.4% last month
8.3 months supply

Forecast of 3% so 👎 2) Some tomfoolery you say? It's bad enough they seasonally adjust the numbers, but they also revise the seasonal adjustments.

An example:

Nov release - 590
Dec release Nov - 615 (revised ⬆️)
Jan release Nov - 607 (revised back ⬇️)

Head hurt yet? ✅ this distro out

🧵M3 Las Vegas Dispatch

Viva Las Vegas? More Like Leaving Las Vegas

Got a whole lot of money that’s ready to burn / so get these stakes higher

- Elvis

Higher and higher into the clouds they continue to build million dollar homes with water woes an ancillary concern 2) As they reach for the stars cuz they are gonna have me some fun / if it costs me my very last dime. And it will cost the very last dime, the very last crypto coin, the very last NFT…because the mania and excess could not be more apparent than it is in Las Vegas.

🧵M3 Phoenix Dispatch

1) Phoenix Rising? No, no - this bird be broken.

Swarm…infestation…these are the only words to describe what’s happened and happening in Phoenix. 2) On the West side there are miles and miles of developments peppered amongst feed lots, construction and streets littered with potholes big enough to take down large vehicles. Getting to the sites was enough of an adventure - I can’t even imagine living there.

🧵M3 Mortgage Market Update

1/15) Breaking news: On average, in cities tracked, Airbnb price per night ⬇️16% month-over-month and much higher decrease in certain cities (see #8).

Isn’t it Spring Break? 🏖️🩴🌊

And PHOTO/VIDEO CONTEST ANNOUNCEMENT (see post #13/15) 2) Top 3 Cities with Highest % Increase in Listings from 1/1-3/5/23 of Cities Tracked:

San Francisco ⬆️ 50.34%
San Jose⬆️ 40.00%
Dallas⬆️ 12.85%

🧵M3 Tampa-Lakeland-Orlando-Jax Dispatch

1) Dirt. Construction sites. Traffic.

Step right up & come on down to sunny FL where there is no income tax and fun for all. Except - no. Running about 8 months behind Austin, they are just revving up, but serious trouble is ahead. 2) Don't get me wrong, there are still ghost houses and exurbs, but where Austin and Nash were more "finished", this area is full of sites where the ground is newly broken. Massive sites in areas already so full with traffic you can't breathe. Build-to-Rent sites ever-present.

🧵M3 Austin Dispatch

1) Astonishing, unbelievable, unprecedented.
Empty, empty castles everywhere in hill country. Bubble is too "light" a word to describe this oncoming storm - avalanche, tsunami - and no amount of "hope" of a soft landing, no landing will change this outcome 2) If I thought Nashville was bad, Austin is worse. In one stretch near Round Rock, I counted 7 or 8 new developments within a span of a mile. And then I turned, and there were more. $279 per sq ft seems to be the going rate in the suburbs and exurbs.

🧵M3 Nashville Dispatch

1) Not to be hyperbolic, but it is worse than most are saying. Along the exurb perimeter of Nashville there is a new-build site every 2-5 miles of homes "selling" in the 400s/500s; only 1 or 2 selling in the 200s.

In addition, massive apt complexes 2) Are being constructed in close proximity. We shouldn't be throwing stones at Evergrande after what I've seen...empty apt complexes, newly built strip malls with one tenant, etc.

Even if Nashville growth re-accelerated to 2020 heights (decelerated slightly last year)