CIA Director William Burns: “I think the president’s decision to selectively and carefully declassify some of our…intelligence has had a very important impact throughout the course of the war” in Ukraine #MSC2023
House Intelligence Committee chairman @RepMikeTurner notes bipartisan, bicameral support for Burns and the IC’s work and gives a notable, amicable shoutout to Ranking Member @jahimes, in attendance
Turner & Burns describe the early deliberations over providing Ukrainians with U.S. intelligence on the location of Russian troops - which was initially feared to be ‘provocative.’ Ultimately that shared tactical intel “had an immediate impact on the battlefield,” Burns says
Turner notes there are small groups on the right and left in Congress objecting to continued support for Ukraine, but says Kyiv and Zelenskyy will contribute to see overwhelming support from Congress; “we have to make certain that Ukraine wins and that Russia loses.”
“It’s a constant challenge now for us to continue to use intelligence and [share] it widely and … keep Putin on the back foot, but that’s something we’re deeply committed to,” Burns says
“I think Putin doesn’t think he has many friends, because Director Burns is making certain of that,” Turner says
Burns on Xi & Taiwan: “We clearly see indications of Xi instructing his military to be ready” for an invasion later in this decade. “That doesn’t mean that an invasion is going to occur” — rather that the “risks increase the farther you get into this decade and beyond”
CIA Director Burns: “As an intelligence service, we take very seriously the importance of…digging deeper and being able to provide the President… with the sense of the Chinese leadership’s planning, intentions and capabilities as well. There’s no higher priority”
Turner: “I’m not going to release classified information in saying this: None of the objects shot over North America recently were Martians.” (Moment of levity in a running conversational theme)
Turner says the U.S. had “taken our eye off the ball” with respect to Russia and didn’t initially have sufficient resources dedicated to it as war in Ukraine broke out; CIA, DIA and ODNI “really pulled together” to gain new info and analytic scrutiny, he says
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.@VP Kamala Harris announces U.S. has formally determined Russia has committed crimes against humanity in Ukraine.
"In the case of Russia’s actions in Ukraine, we have examined the evidence, we know the legal standards, and there is no doubt: These are crimes against humanity."
"And I say to all those who have perpetrated these crimes and to their superiors who are complicit in those crimes: you will be held to account." - @VP Kamala Harris at #MSC2023
"No nation is safe in a world where one country can violate the sovereignty and territorial integrity of another," VP Harris says, to applause
China's Wang Yi says at #MSC2023 Beijing will issue a position paper on Ukraine reiterating President Xi's view that territorial integrity and sovereignty 'must be respected'; nuclear war 'must not be fought'
'We will work with all sides,' Wang Yi says of the Russia/Ukraine conflict, 'until the day peace arrives.'
Wang Yi says at #MSC2023 the downing of China's balloon by the U.S. was "absurd and hysterical" and "100% abuse of the use of force."
"There are many balloons in the sky. Do you want to down each and every one of them?"
CIA Director Burns: “China remains the biggest geopolitical challenge the U.S. faces in the decades ahead, and the biggest priority for CIA.”
Says new technologies are the “main arena”for competition with China & the “main determinant of our future as an intelligence service”
In Ukraine, CIA's Burns says the next six months will be "critical," with Putin still betting that "political fatigue" will set in across the West. "We do not assess" that Moscow is serious about negotiations
! CIA's Burns says of the "30 or so hours" he spent in Ukraine last month, 6 were in bomb shelters - there were two separate strikes against civilian facilities by Russians using Iranian UAVs. He calls the deepening Iranian & Russian military connection "especially concerning."
CIA Director William Burns on Putin's meeting with Khamenei: "The reality is that Russians and Iranians need each other right now...but if they need each other, they don't really trust each other, in the sense that they're energy rivals and historical competitors."
Burns continued: "It's a reflection in some ways of the deficiencies of Russia's defense industry today, the difficulties they're having after significant losses so far in the war against Ukraine and replenishing their stocks as well."
Burns: "Both sides are going to look for ways in which they can help one another evade sanctions. Both sides, I think, are looking to demonstrate they have options...
...There are limits, I think, to the ways in which they're going to be able to help one another right now."
.@AmbQinGang at @AspenSecurity: "Xinjiang and Hong Kong-related issues are fundamentally not about democracy, human rights, ethnicity or religion. It is about anti-terrorism, anti-secession.. protecting people’s lives.. Xinjiang can never allowed to be another Islamic State.”
On Russia/Ukraine, Qin says, "China's stance is fair and objective," noting impacts of the conflict are "spilling over, leading to multiple crises." "What China is calling for is [an] immediate ceasefire, resumption of peace talks; all parties involved should be engaged."
And, Qin continues, there's a "misunderstanding" of China-Russia relations, arguing the February joint statement shows "common opposition to Cold War mentality, to geopolitical confrontation...and it shows the two countries' common support for promoting democracy"
Kirby, citing declassified U.S. intelligence, says Russia is laying the groundwork to annex Ukrainian territory that it controls; Moscow is reviewing detailed plans to add Kherson, Zaporizhzhia & all of Donetsk and Luhansk. No timeline specified but could be as soon as September.
If Russia proceeds with annexation the US will respond "swiftly and severely," in lockstep with allies, with additional sanctions. "We will never recognize any purportedly annexed territories belonging to Russia."
US also to announce aid to Ukraine that will include more HIMARs.
"We don't have any indication" that the sale of Iranian drones to Russia has actually occurred, and no indication training has already been done on them, Kirby says, in answer to a Q about Jake Sullivan's announcement last week. Putin met today with Raisi and Khamenei in Tehran.