Thread by @peter_caddle

FACT CHECK: The Irish media has been repeating the claim that 50,000 people attended yesterday's #IrelandforAll protest.

This is complete and utter fake news, and I can prove it.🧵

RTÉ, the Irish Times, and the Irish Examiner all repeated claims that "tens of thousands" of people took part in yesterday's rally.

RTÉ and the Irish Times repeated the 50k number without challenging it. The Examiner meanwhile said a Garda source told them it was around 20k.

However, are any of these numbers accurate?

Well, luckily, people have been studying the science behind crowd control for some time, with tools available online to help anyone gain an understanding of a crowd's size.

Today I will be using a combination of a CNN article written with the help of Prof. G. Keith Still, as well as the handy website mapchecking.com, which allows you to estimate the size of a crowd using the surface area of a given location combined with its density.

So, our first question is how dense is the crowd at #IrelandforAll. Unfortunately, the lack of any aerial images makes it hard to tell, but based on a few images and videos available online showing the demo at its peak, we can make an educated guess.

Our CNN article warns us that anything beyond 5 people per meter can result in a dangerous situation. By contrast, our crowd here appears to have lots of space for people to move about, with there being many large gaps between different groups relatively close to the event stage.

As such, I think anywhere between 2-3 people per square meter is a fair estimate for the entirety of the space occupied by the crowd. Remember, this is an average. It was probably more dense in some places, and less in others. This should even out.

But what of its area?

At its height, the protest ranged from just before the eastern edge of the Custom House to around the bus stop further down the keys. Some people also appeared to spill out onto the Butt bridge, but I'll discount this for now for ease of calculation.

So how many were in attendance? According to our data, there was somewhere between 9k and 15k at the protest's height. I'd say this latter estimate is extremely generous, but I am biased, so whatever.

What's important is that neither of these figures is anywhere close to 50k.

This is where things get interesting. According to the data I have on hand, not only were there nowhere near 50k people at the #IrelandForAll protest yesterday, I reckon it would be next to impossible to fit 50k people in an area the size of where the protest was.

Turning our crowd density dial all the way up to 5 people per square meter (far more than we know was actually present based on the available pictures), we can only fit a maximum of around 24k people in the protest area outside the Custom House.

So what would a 50k protest even look like. Well, even at full "moshpit" density of 5 people per square meter, we need to fill the Butt bridge, fill the road down to Lower Abbey Street, and go well past the Quays bus stops before we hit that number.

So what gives?

As some of you have pointed out already, early reporting did not say that 50k people attended the rally, but that "organisers said" 50k people attended. Basically, these outlets are hiding behind the claims of the NGOs/activist attending the demo to push the figure.

I shouldn't need to say this, but to do this in a report is highly, highly irresponsible. People often do not spot these little caveats, and more often than not these figures are then understood as fact. Even the Irish Times started reporting it without the "organiser" qualifier.

RTÉ's decision to repeat this figure without challenging it I believe is particularly shameful. As our state broadcaster, people believe that it is a neutral outlet for news. Its use of the figure even resulted in foreign outlets like the BBC repeating the false 50k number.

Ultimately, the fact that anyone made the 50k claims is farcical. Leaving to one side that the actual number was likely closer to a fifth of that, the truth is that it would likely be simply impossible to fit that many people into an area so small.

Important context here: If the Irish right tried to do this, we would be fact-checked to oblivion. The fact that such an egregious falsehood has to be thoroughly debunked by some 20-something-year-old on Twitter shows how useless the journalists on this island are.

I'll add here some other links people might be interested in.

The Press Ombudsman has a principle prohibiting its members from engaging in distorted reporting.

Both the Irish Times and the Irish Examiner are members.

presscouncil.ie/office-of-the-…

The Broadcasting Authority of Ireland - which regulates RTÉ, also has rules regarding objective news reporting, though does not appear to explicitly denounce distorted reporting.

You can find their standards here: bai.ie/en/codes-stand…

Both authorities also allow members of the general public to file complaints if they feel a relevant organisation has broken any rules. Do with that information what you will.