Rahul Profile picture
Feb 19 10 tweets 5 min read
🛬🚨🛩️: How are we going to land?

“Powell: "You fly, right? Sometimes the landing is perfect. Sometimes the landing is a bit bumpy. It's still a good landing." - back in May

Historically extensive rate hike cycles don’t end well. So how is a soft landing possible?

Read on… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
🛬 Landing? #Bigflip ? Soft landing?

What does this all even mean ⁉️

Great overview by @benjaminMlavine to help set the foundation 👇. $SPX $QQQ
The fed pivot has quickly turned into a fed pause for longer. Markets don’t typically bottom 📉 while rates are 📈.

Another chart to illustrate in the following tweet.
Does the fed need to pivot at all here? Consumer strong, inflation starting to roll, jobs resilient, financial conditions loose.

Historically pivots occur as something is on the brink of breaking and those cheering for a pivot, need to view this chart 📊.

A bottom comes after..
We’ve seen a record start of inflows into high-grade corporate bonds.

Why? If you can secure a generous risk free return, potentially for higher, why go risk on with equities ?

You should be modeled to beat the risk free rate of ~5% if you want to invest in equities.
As @CameronDawson says, “Bull markets don’t begin at 18x earnings.” $SPX
Great clip by @CameronDawson on valuations.

This 📺 is as of 1/30/23
My friend @eliant_capital was one of the first to even start talking about the #bigflip on here.

Additional reasoning below
Should the Fed pivot it’s focus more towards QT?

With M2 money supply trending just fine, forgivable PPP loans, student loan moratorium, and financial conditions back to March 2022 levels when rate hikes began.
If you found this 🧵 useful please:

1. Follow @rhemrajani9
2. Sign up for a 𝐟𝐫𝐞𝐞 newsletter providing daily market highlights - > ( @TheOneRead ) TheOneRead.com
3. Turn notifications 🔔 on to never miss macro insights, stock market info, and spaces!

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Rahul

Rahul Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @rhemrajani9

Feb 18
Market round up 🧵📍…

▪️Inflation 📊
▪️Fed funds rate 💸
▪️Retail sales 🛍️
▪️Earnings yields vs T-bills
▪️Options
▪️Tail risks ⚠️
▪️US budget deficit vs GDP 💰
▪️Household savings 🏦
▪️PPI

📬 daily free 🗞️ is live!—> TheOneRead.com <—

Let’s dive in 👇 $SPX $QQQ 🔂
Inflation came in at 6.4% this past week shelter being part of the reason 🏠. ImageImage
Very interesting 📊 on the fed funds rate 👇
Read 13 tweets
Jan 28
Soft landing 𝙤𝙧 Fed forces a recession?

🧵 which will cover:

▪️ GDP
▪️ Inflation
▪️ Financial conditions
▪️ Risks if we pause early
▪️ 📊 $SPX and $QQQ 📊
▪️ $DXY and FX
▪️ Feds balance sheet
▪️ Earnings
▪️ Unemployment and jobs
▪️ Consumer spending

Let’s dive in! 👇🔂
Advanced GDP and annualized GDP prints came in this week. Data looks more positive and headed in the right direction.
Has CPI peaked ? Which components of inflation stay stickier ?

Next couple FOMC decisions are critical, the last thing the Fed wants is inflation to creep back up.

CPI and Core data 📊👇
Read 12 tweets
Jan 23
𝐄𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐫 🧵…

In this thread ⬇️ you’ll find:

▪️ $TSLA earnings estimates + 📊
▪️ $MSFT earnings estimates
▪️ Wall Street tech profits outlook
▪️ $SPX earnings dashboard
▪️ $SPX P/E 2023 projections

If this is helpful, be sure to RT 🔂

Read below 👇
(1/8🧵) $TSLA earnings snapshot:

EPS estimate: $1.127
Revenue estimate: $24.065B
Forward PE current: 31x
Avg analyst price target: $190.10

🗓 Reporting on Wednesday!
(2/8🧵) $MSFT earnings snapshot:

EPS estimate: $2.296
Revenue estimate: $52.94B
Forward PE current: 24.7x
Avg analyst price target: $288.45

🗓 Reporting on Tuesday!
Read 9 tweets
Dec 29, 2022
🚨When will the market 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺?

If you use this historical data as a guide, $SPX is down ~20% ytd so another 12% decline would bring us to avg drawdown.

And from bottom it takes an avg of 21 months just to come back to previous top. 😮

Cont’d… 🧵
So if the decline started March 2022 we would bottom somewhere early to middle of next year.

But wait, for us to bottom we probably also need a Fed pivot.

And historically, markets drop ⬇️ after a pivot before finding the next leg up.

So will the Fed pause in 23’ and when?
Another interesting data point on the market bottom $SPX
Read 7 tweets
Dec 6, 2022
𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟯 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 - 5 videos (📣) from:

▪️ $JPM CEO Jamie Dimon
▪️ $GS CEO David Solomon
▪️ Bridgewater CIO Rebecca Patterson
▪️ Stanley Druckenmiller
▪️ Bill Ackman @BillAckman

Fed funds, inflation, global economy & more.

Thread 🧵- If helpful, RT :) 🔂
Per $JPM Dimon:

▪️ “Consumer is spending 10% more then last year, and 40% more then pre covid.”

▪️ $1.5T in checking account savings (consumer)

▪️ “Another risk you have to look at is quantitive tightening. We’ve never had it before. Ever in the lifetime of mankind.”
Per $GS Solomon:

▪️ “Uncertain time given we are changing monetary and economic conditions very very quickly. And that’s certainly having an impact to slowing down economic activity.”

▪️Chances of soft landing uncertain. “I certainly think we can see a recession in 2023 also.”
Read 9 tweets
Dec 4, 2022
If inflation peaked in June, the Fed pauses at some point next year, where do we go from here?

Question on many minds 💡 - have the markets bottomed or not ⁉️

My 2023 analysis 🧵 - let’s dig in 👇

Please 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 this 🔂 $SPY $QQQ $VIX Image
First, how do the markets perform after inflation has peaked? Here’s the data 📊

Avg : 13.2% return 🆙 Image
A important technical resistance here as of now. $SPY
Read 13 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(