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Rahul Profile picture
Rahul
@rhemrajani9
I try to simplify the markets ➡️ Macro insights 🔎 | Stock market info 📊 | Tech news 💬 | 𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐞 🗞️ @TheOneRead | Not financial advice.
3 subscribers
Feb 25, 2023 • 15 tweets • 7 min read
The markets this past week 🧵…

- PCE
- Housing markets 🏠
- Inflation 🛍️
- Earnings / Guidance 💸
- Retail investors
- $SPX 📊
- AI stocks 🤖
- Headcount vs $SPX
- Financial conditions 💰
- Fed funds 📊
- $USD / $DXY 💵

Let’s dig in below, if helpful please RT 🔀… read on 👇 PCE feds preferred inflation measure comes in 🔥 than expected.

Per @benjaminMlavine “First YOY PCE increase since September. Only 6 of 61 economists surveyed by Bbg had a 1.8% personal spending forecast. Establishment caught off guard by the #bigflip”
Feb 19, 2023 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
🛬🚨🛩️: How are we going to land?

“Powell: "You fly, right? Sometimes the landing is perfect. Sometimes the landing is a bit bumpy. It's still a good landing." - back in May

Historically extensive rate hike cycles don’t end well. So how is a soft landing possible?

Read on… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 🛬 Landing? #Bigflip ? Soft landing?

What does this all even mean ⁉️

Great overview by @benjaminMlavine to help set the foundation 👇. $SPX $QQQ
Feb 18, 2023 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
Market round up 🧵📍…

▪️Inflation 📊
▪️Fed funds rate 💸
▪️Retail sales 🛍️
▪️Earnings yields vs T-bills
▪️Options
▪️Tail risks ⚠️
▪️US budget deficit vs GDP 💰
▪️Household savings 🏦
▪️PPI

📬 daily free 🗞️ is live!—> TheOneRead.com <—

Let’s dive in 👇 $SPX $QQQ 🔂 Inflation came in at 6.4% this past week shelter being part of the reason 🏠. ImageImage
Jan 28, 2023 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
Soft landing 𝙤𝙧 Fed forces a recession?

🧵 which will cover:

▪️ GDP
▪️ Inflation
▪️ Financial conditions
▪️ Risks if we pause early
▪️ 📊 $SPX and $QQQ 📊
▪️ $DXY and FX
▪️ Feds balance sheet
▪️ Earnings
▪️ Unemployment and jobs
▪️ Consumer spending

Let’s dive in! 👇🔂 Advanced GDP and annualized GDP prints came in this week. Data looks more positive and headed in the right direction.
Jan 23, 2023 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
𝐄𝐚𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐫 🧵…

In this thread ⬇️ you’ll find:

▪️ $TSLA earnings estimates + 📊
▪️ $MSFT earnings estimates
▪️ Wall Street tech profits outlook
▪️ $SPX earnings dashboard
▪️ $SPX P/E 2023 projections

If this is helpful, be sure to RT 🔂

Read below 👇 (1/8🧵) $TSLA earnings snapshot:

EPS estimate: $1.127
Revenue estimate: $24.065B
Forward PE current: 31x
Avg analyst price target: $190.10

🗓 Reporting on Wednesday!
Dec 29, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
🚨When will the market 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺?

If you use this historical data as a guide, $SPX is down ~20% ytd so another 12% decline would bring us to avg drawdown.

And from bottom it takes an avg of 21 months just to come back to previous top. 😮

Cont’d… 🧵 So if the decline started March 2022 we would bottom somewhere early to middle of next year.

But wait, for us to bottom we probably also need a Fed pivot.

And historically, markets drop ⬇️ after a pivot before finding the next leg up.

So will the Fed pause in 23’ and when?
Dec 6, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟯 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 - 5 videos (📣) from:

▪️ $JPM CEO Jamie Dimon
▪️ $GS CEO David Solomon
▪️ Bridgewater CIO Rebecca Patterson
▪️ Stanley Druckenmiller
▪️ Bill Ackman @BillAckman

Fed funds, inflation, global economy & more.

Thread 🧵- If helpful, RT :) 🔂 Per $JPM Dimon:

▪️ “Consumer is spending 10% more then last year, and 40% more then pre covid.”

▪️ $1.5T in checking account savings (consumer)

▪️ “Another risk you have to look at is quantitive tightening. We’ve never had it before. Ever in the lifetime of mankind.”
Dec 4, 2022 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
If inflation peaked in June, the Fed pauses at some point next year, where do we go from here?

Question on many minds 💡 - have the markets bottomed or not ⁉️

My 2023 analysis 🧵 - let’s dig in 👇

Please 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲 this 🔂 $SPY $QQQ $VIX Image First, how do the markets perform after inflation has peaked? Here’s the data 📊

Avg : 13.2% return 🆙 Image
Nov 29, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
🚨 $SPX and the markets have had a major correlation with the Fed balance sheet. 🚨

As you can 👀 the $SPX moved in line w/ the balance sheet expansion and saw dips at any signs of QT.

BUT recently QT is on going, yet the chart shows $SPY 🆙.

Why is that? Keep reading 🧵👇… To follow the recent rise, we’ll need to note 3 things:

▪️ TGA : Treasury General account
▪️ Treasury cash held 💸
▪️ RRP : Reverse Repo facilities
Nov 27, 2022 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
How will the markets play out in 2023?

Realistically, no one knows; however in this 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱 🧵 I’ve complied outlooks from:

▪️ Druckenmiller
▪️ Bill Ackman @BillAckman
▪️ $MS
▪️ $GS
▪️ $BLK
▪️ $BAC
▪️ Nasdaq
▪️ Standard Chartered

If helpful, RT 🔂 :) Per Druckenmiller:

🚨 Druckenmiller’s base case for a hard landing and recession in 2023 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝🚨

▪️ Why he believes we are in for a recession next year
▪️ How QT effects have been offset thus far
▪️ Liquidity cycle 💸
Sep 5, 2022 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
🚨 EUROPE ENERGY CRISIS ⁉️

Quick 🧵 to explain the current developments and potential impacts below.

$XLE $XOM $BP $SPY $QQQ $VIX On Friday news hit that Russia will suspend Nord Stream indefinitely.

But why is this important ?
Aug 8, 2022 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
Retail has access to more information than ever before.

🧵 11 things I wish I knew or spent more time learning prior to entering the stock markets...

$SPX $QQQ $VOO 👇👇👇 1. Before buying

What exactly do you even look at ? Where do you start? What data is important ?

Here is a 📜 checklist that may help as a starting point !

Jun 26, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
🚨30y mortgage rates the highest we’ve seen them since 07/08. 🚨

The housing market has yet to see a correction, and certainly showing signs of a 🫧 in this asset class. $SPY $QQQ $VIX

Have you tried to buy or sell recently ? 🏠

1// Thread below 👇…🧵 Median home prices hit >$400k last month. The pace at which we have seen this increase is astonishing.
Apr 23, 2022 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
Crazy week in the markets. How do we feel right now? What is going on? What should you be looking at?

I'll try to share a variety of factors and views in this thread that may help you understand the current market dynamics. $SPY $QQQ $VIX

🧵 Read on...👇 Indicators of a bottom ? @42macroDDale 🎧

- Be within 1 to 2 quarters of a second derivative inflection in growth
- Dovish policy
- Overpay for volatility, you want to see us roll past the expiration of those options, dealers cover

open.spotify.com/episode/1v8sDQ…
Mar 12, 2022 • 13 tweets • 6 min read
Is 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 imminent? In this thread I'll discuss some factors worth noting:

• Inflation
• Macro policy shift
• Commodity pricing
• Operating margins
• Market conditions

~Avg recession only lasts 11 months. $QQQ $AAPL $TSLA $MSFT $GOOGL $NVDA Image Recent report by $GS via Bloomberg stating their concerns.

@JLinWins broke the news yesterday on this as well. ImageImageImage
Feb 27, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱 🧵

📊: $LCID $SNOW $SE $SOFI $PLTR $COIN $ARKK $QQQ

🗣: Comment if you want more tickers. Retweet and share 🔂

✍️: by @TopTradingEdge 👈🏻

Read on below… $LCID ⚡️ (earnings tomorrow)
Feb 17, 2022 • 13 tweets • 7 min read
Sneaker deals have always been an integral part of
🏀NBA🏀athletes careers.

5 deals below, each had something unique to it.

🔹 @KingJames x $NKE
🔹 @Jumpman23 x $NKE
🔹 @StephenCurry30 x $UAA
🔹 #Kobe x $NKE
🔹 @alleniverson x #Reebok

Read on...👇 1. Lebron

18 year, the kid from Akron was offered up to $100m from #Reebok

AND $10m signing (check handed to him), but he couldn't meet w/ others.

He refused the deal and went back to school the next day. 🎒

Eventually signing with $NKE.
Jan 23, 2022 • 14 tweets • 6 min read
When will growth bottom?

Nobody knows. BUT in this 🧵 I tried to compile a variety of data and indicators that may help you prepare for further volatility.

"If you fail to prepare, prepare to fail."

Read on ...👇 $AAPL $MSFT $QQQ $AMZN $SPX $TSLA $FB $NDX performance in January

h/t: @Mayhem4Markets

Jan 17, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
🧵 3 high performing investors who share some incredible insights.

• Brad Gerstner @altcap
• Peter Lynch
• Dennis Lynch

Read on to learn more (thread)👇 $SPX $QQQ

Who’s your favorite investor ? Comment below ⬇️ 1. @altcap well spoken, intellectual and prudent tech investor.
Jan 16, 2022 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
🧵...This is the balance sheet that the FED has to unwind, to try and curb inflation, control asset prices, along with ensure employment markets are stable.

There are SEVERAL other effects.... thread below 🧵

$SPX $MSFT $QQQ $AMZN $FB $AAPL $TSLA 1. Multiples // PE ratio

Notice that blip in 2018, last time the FED attempted this, thats when you saw Dec 2018, until the FED retracted.

$SPX $QQQ

Dec 4, 2021 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
Seeing a lot of comparisons being made to the drawdown in the markets to December 2018.

While there are some similarities in reasoning, the backdrop today is quite different and brings us to look into a lot more variables.

Lets dive in 🧵👇... $SPX $QQQ 1/ Inflation: t̶r̶a̶n̶s̶i̶t̶o̶r̶y̶ 📈

🚗 - Used cars pricing > 25%
🏠 - Home prices ~20% increase
⛽️ - Oil up >50%
🍲 - Food prices >5%

CPI Index increased 6.2 percent from October 2020 to October 2021, the largest 12-month increase since Nov 1990.