A man that sounds a lot like Prigozhin is breaking all sorts of unwritten codes in Russia that are probably dangerous to do. Not least by putting this rant out there. He’s ranting because his ammo is cut back, criticizes MOD, and confirms he’s crossed many lines. /1
He’s angry that Wagner’s ammo has been cut, his contacts tell him he needs to apologize bc the issue is political.He pretends like he doesn’t know it means he has apologize to Shoygu/Gerasimov.he shades Shoygu’s daughter with the Dubai travel comment. dangerous and petty stuff.2/
Shoygu is not great at many core tasks of his job, like setting the force up for a successful war. But using the machinery in Moscow to slowly undercut his enemies, fueled by pettiness and decades of bureaucratic experience? That’s Shoygu’s sweet spot. /3
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Russia did not call off a large drone attack last night within ten minutes of the presidents’ call, and 100+ drones were launched last night from 1900 (when call ended) until after midnight Moscow time. We can step through this with basic timelines and calculations. /1
We know Shaheds speeds, launch sites thanks to various monitors, we know general routes, and what time they impacted cities last night. (Older image below for reference). /2
Ukraine said the attacks began at 1900, close to when the call ended, until 0200+. So some Shaheds were probably already airborne by 1800 Moscow time, but Russia continued to launch fresh waves up to 5-6 hours after the call ended. /3
On the operational impact of US aid suspension to Ukraine: frontline stability for the AFU rests on effective drone and artillery use. The timeline below is a gradual degradation and not off/on switch. The suspension will have other problems for soldier morale and operations. /1
Morale: Ukrainian forces are undermanned already, and this problem is unresolved. Desertions, recruiting, soldiers going AWOL for a few weeks to recover, are known problems. Suspension of aid and simultaneous rapprochement with Russia worsens these problems /2
Will to fight: Ukrainian forces continued to fight through wavering US support in 2024 when aid was paused in Congress for over six months. They are tough. Too soon to assess impact of this situation but there are negative potentials here and I will watch closely. /3
Pausing to reflect, I've now worked 20 years in DC. 20 years on the Russian military. 5 U.S. administrations and 4 Russian wars. What a time it has been. A brief thread of gratitude to those I've met on the way. /1
To friends and colleagues from the Pentagon and the shadows: as we said back then, if they made a movie about things we've seen with our own eyes, no one would believe it. Pacing the Pentagon courtyard at dawn and late night, windows all lit up, I was proud to be part of it. /2
To our 🇺🇸servicemen and women that I've met, from our most senior officers to our junior enlisted, it has always been one of my greatest privileges to support you, work with you, study with you, and understand the adventures and sacrifices of a military life. I'm proud of you. /3
There are many rumors that Russia is evacuating its bases at Tartus and Khmeimim in Syria, but most assets remain there. If evacuation happens, it will be obvious. A brief thread on what is happening now and what future moves would look like. 🧵
As of 7 December, most of Russia’s ships are in or near port in Tartus. Follow @KaptainLOMA for updates on their presence.
These ships cannot return to the Black Sea while Turkey has closed the straits under the Montreux Convention so they would have to attempt a very long journey to the Baltic Fleet, or try to find a temporary accommodation nearby at a limited number of ports (Libya, Sudan, Algeria)
One of Russia’s top priorities in Syria is maintaining base access. Syria is a critical waypoint for Russian activities elsewhere in the region. Watch for signs that PMCs are redeploying to Syria. By now, Russia probably has made its assessments and is executing plans. (1/3)
Z channels lament the loss of experienced commanders like Surovikin/Prigozhin. Surovikin has been tapped before to address hard problems like this and received awards for his Syrian command (old photo). There are politics involved now, Gerasimov tapped in Chaiko. Let’s see. (2/3)
Russia has some tactical aviation bandwidth it could surge, limited by base capacities (+ base protection capacity which has never been robust), and spare PMCs not in Ukraine. Long range strike options limited by Ukraine ops and on hand/resupply capacity to ships at Tartus. 3/3
I've returned from a research trip to Ukraine, where I met many people in Kyiv and along the frontlines. They are brave and kind in ways that words fail to capture. The situation is serious and urgent for many reasons. I share my thoughts in the thread below. /1
As officials and others have already said publicly, Ukraine is facing a shortage of manpower - infantry in particular. Mobilization has not brought relief for many reasons. More impacts in the story below. /2 ft.com/content/adbef9…
Manpower and force employment issues are challenges right now, and manpower is stretched across the front. A shortage of western weapons was not the most critical issue during this particular snapshot in time, although it has been in the past. /3