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Feb 21 • 19 tweets • 15 min read
Before I explain to the #AusAirForce 🇦🇺 comms ppl, please appreciate that their P-8A Poseidon fleet broadcasts its own location to anyone who will listen, using ADS-B. That signal will geolocate them from orbit. On patrol, their locations are the least secret thing over the SCS.
This tweet, that has all the words in it you'd need to find it, gives you the tail numbers and ICAO Mode-S hexes of the whole #AusAirForce 🇦🇺 P-8A Poseidon fleet. You can follow them pretty much any day with the link that's included in the quoted tweet.

On 2023-02-09 #AusAirForce 🇦🇺 P-8A Poseidon A47-011 arrived at #KadenaAB 🇺🇸 on #Okinawa 🇯🇵as call sign #ASY150.

globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=7cf9cb,7…
#7CF9D5
On 2023-02-13 A47-011 flew a sortie over the East China Sea (it seems) from ~01:00z to ~09:00z as #BLKT53.

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#7CF9D5
On 2023-02-15 A47-011 flew a sortie over the East China Sea (it seems) from ~01:00z to ~09:00z as #BLKT54.

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#7CF9D5
On 2023-02-16 the #AusAirForce 🇦🇺 published they had deployed a P-8A Poseidon to monitor UN embargoes on North Korea. Odd timing considering they arrived days before, and hadn't left yet.

On 2023-02-17 A47-011 flew a sortie over the East China Sea (it seems) from ~01:00z to ~09:00z as #BLKT55.

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#7CF9D5
Earlier today the #AusAirForce 🇦🇺 put out another announcement about their deployment to #KadenaAB for #OpArgos. Still no mention they've been there since 2023-02-09 and have been flying missions over the East China Sea since 2023-02-13.

On 2023-02-20 A47-011 flew a sortie over the East China Sea (it seems) from ~01:00z to ~09:00z as #BLKT53.

globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=7cf9d5&l…
#7CF9D5
There is no need for the #AusAirForce 🇦🇺 to limit telling their public what they're doing and when they're doing it, as it happens, as long as the Chinese and Russians can see it all from space, by tracking their ADS-B transponders, which they can.
*East China Sea

#OpARGOS seems to be the #AusAirForce equivalent to #OpNEON flown by #RCAF CP-140 Auroras, and since I documented their last serial (+Auroras only use Mode-S) I'll show you the difference ADS-B provides. It's the same operation (more or less) using a modern Boeing P-8A Poseidon.
In Summer 2022 @MercedesGlobal published 60 such allied patrols over the East China Sea+ had been intercepted, several dangerously so, by Chinese fighter jets.

More recently, Canadian officials stated they had no dangerous interactions during the fall 2022 #OpNEON serial.
That makes me wonder, if the #AusAirForce are being routinely intercepted, as the #RCAF stated they were during the Fall 2022 #OpNEON deployment, will the Aussies admit if they were intercepted in a threatening manner, or maybe leak it to the press? 🤔🤷‍♂️
*60 allied patrols had been intercepted in the first half of 2022.

For the thread:

Here's the thread about the "chaff" incident last year.

On 2023-02-22 #AusAirForce 🇦🇺 P-8A Poseidon A47-011 flew an #OpARGOS mission over the East China Sea from ~01:05z to ~09:15z as #BLKT54, brining the total number of sorties to 5, and hours to ~39.5 (so far) on this deployment.

globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=7cf9d5&l…
#7CF9D5 #RAAF #ADSBexchange
After last year's "chaffing" incident, and from their proximity to China, it is almost certain the #AusAirForce have been intercepted by Chinese interceptors, but there has been no mention by the #RAAF of any interceptions deemed unsafe or otherwise.

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More from @steffanwatkins

Steffan Watkins Profile picture
Feb 20
Here's a way you may not have looked at the data #ADSBexchange gives you.

Planes using ADS-B transmit their precise location (lat/lon/alt/speed/etc) but planes using Mode-S need to be geolocated using multilateration (MLAT). like TRIangulation, but with 4 data points (Multi) 🧵
Here is an image (and link) representing *only* planes being geolocated using MLAT. Meaning, 4 or more #ADSBexchange receivers have them in line-of-sight (LOS); 10 of them.

inaccurate.adsbexchange.com/?filterSources…
Here is the same area, showing you what aircraft transmitting Mode-S are not being geolocated, meaning 4 #ADSBexchange receivers do not have these planes in LOS; 81 of them.

inaccurate.adsbexchange.com/?filterSources…
Read 10 tweets
Steffan Watkins Profile picture
Feb 19
Gripe:
The CAF display poor situational awareness re public visibility of 🇨🇦 #RCAF aircraft.

Examples:
- #14WingGreenwood deployments to Keflavik
- #19WingComox #OpCARIBBE Jan/Feb 2023
- #CANSOFCOM ISR over #Ottawa Jan 27/28 2022
- Withdrawal x2 CC-130J from #OpIMPACT Aug 2022
What about #14WingGreenwood deployments to Keflavik?

It's only a matter of time before the CP-140 Aurora deployments to Keflavik, that coincide with Russian Navy movements through the GIUK gap, get traction in the press.

They pretend it's not happening. We see them. 🤦‍♂️
What about the #19WingComox #OpCARIBBE Jan/Feb 2023 operation?

They pretended the press couldn't see it happening and wouldn't talk about it like it was some secret operation. Au contraire, it was so visible I live-tweeted it.

Read 5 tweets
Steffan Watkins Profile picture
Feb 15
🇺🇸 People stop me on the street all the time and ask me, Stef, how can you tell where in the United States there are too few #ADSBexchange receivers to geolocate aircraft that aren't broadcasting their precise location data using multilateration (#MLAT)?
Great question!
Here's what you do:
filter by altitude, between 10,000-40,000 ft, that restricts the results to aircraft which are flying high enough that we should home four or more receivers are in line of sight, a requirement for #MLAT.
Then filter so you only see the Mode-S-transponder-transmitting aircraft
Read 9 tweets
Steffan Watkins Profile picture
Feb 14
🇨🇦 #RCAF CC-177 Globemaster III (4/5, 80% ✅)

‣ 177701 flew from Trenton to Ottawa to Whitehorse on 2023-02-12 presumably related to the 🎈
‣ 177704 seems to be out of comission at #CFBTrenton, it hasn't flown in over a month.

globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=c2b3ff,c…
#8WingTrenton #429Sqn Image
🇨🇦 #RCAF CC-150 Polaris (4/5, 80% ✅)

‣ 15002 is still going through some stuff at Mirabel, possibly out of commission for months.

globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=c2b355,c…
#437Sqn #8WingTrenton Image
🇨🇦 #RCAF CC-144C/D Challenger (4/4, 100% ✅)

‣ 144618 may be out for maintenance. They haven't flown in just ten days, but the pace of the rest is frantic.

globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=c2b369,c…
#412Sqn #8WingTrenton Image
Read 12 tweets
Steffan Watkins Profile picture
Feb 2
Let me understand this really well, 🇺🇸🇨🇦 #NORAD QRA fighters didn't shoot down the 🇨🇳 Chinese spy balloon in American, then Canadian, then American airspace? 😂

YOU HAD ONE JOB.

🤦‍♂️
They flew right through the #ADIZ that the media get their bloomers in a bunch about when the Russians fly antiques through, and VIOLATED American and Canadian airspace, which the Russians never do, and the Chinese continue to do; did I get that right? What a bunch of bullsh!t.
I suspect the #USAF are flying their own spy drones over China on the regular, without the public's knowledge, in full view of the Chinese military, and they're terrified the Chinese will start shooting them out of the sky if they shoot down the balloon.
Read 31 tweets
Steffan Watkins Profile picture
Feb 1
"The operation involved (...) supporting and operating four F-35s, three CF-18s, four KC-135s, one CC-150, one E-3, and one CH-149."

Okay, let's add them up. 🧵
🇺🇸 #USAF E-3 Sentry 83-0009 #AE11F2 #CACHE50

Flights identified using #ADSBexchange
2023-01-18
2023-01-19

dvidshub.net/image/7608860/…
🇨🇦 #RCAF CC-149 Cormorant 149902 #C2B107 deployed from #14WingGreenwood on 2023-01-11, headed to to Iqaluit, in preparation for #NORAD Operation #NobleDefender.

The operation was from the 15th to the 31st, true, but preparations started before that.
Read 4 tweets

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