In the Kupyansk area there is ongoing fighting in the forests. Ukraine performed heavier than usual artillery strikes in this area. I don't know of any territorial changes.
The Kreminna and Siversk areas are more or less status quo. Fighting in the forests near Kreminna, fighting near Bilohorivka south of Kreminna, and minor fighting in all of the front line towns around Siversk. No changes.
North of Bakhmut, Russia is attacking along the railways to Yahidne. There is heavy fighting in the area of the railway station in the north of Bakhmut. Some Russians claim to have captured Yahidne, but I see no evidence. Ukraine's main line of defense here is the trainstation.
There is also heavy fighting in the areas of the forested areas north of Berkhivka and Dubovo-Vasylivka.
In east and south Bakhmut, I see no significant changes.
West of Bakhmut, Russia is trying to attack Ivanivske and the Kostyantynivka highway without success.
Russia fired two missiles, perhaps Iskander-Ks, toward Kramatorsk.
They fired another missile to an old mine near Toretsk.
The Avdiivka area had no major changes today.
Russia dropped 500kg bombs on the Coke Plant in Avdiivka.
There was fighting near Oleksandropil, Novobakhmutivka, Krasnohorivka, and Vesele without changes.
Fighting near Vodyane and Nevelske without changes. The heaviest fighting is near Nevelske where Russia is intending to breakthrough, although they do not seem to have the numbers required. Russia may have had minor advances up a single treeline, perhaps 200 meters or so.
Around Marinka, the Russian offense has stalled, no changes.
Vuhledar, no known changes.
In addition to this, Russia fired incendiary rounds into Kherson (likely thermite), multiple missiles into Zaporizhzhia (likely Iskander-K). There was also a weird event in Belgorod where Russia fired several missiles, and none of them seemed to go far, perhaps malfunctions.
This event in Belgorod was tactfully described as "if you listen closely, you can hear our neighbor's farts exploding". One Russian claimed Ukraine was shooting all the missiles down with a secret Patriot battery, which was pretty funny.
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I see several things happening in Ukraine right now:
1: Ukraine has pivoted to a drone based defense. Most of the gains you see Russia making right now are coming as a result of one of two things. A: Inferior Ukrainian drone units or B: Overwhelming Numerical Superiority.
When I say an inferior drone unit, I do not mean the pilots are bad, or even necessarily that their construction is bad. It could be as simple as not having access to enough drones, or not having enough pilots. I simply mean the unit isn’t strong enough for the task.
Where we see the strongest drone units, we see Russia struggling to advance, Usually only advancing with extreme numerical superiority and enormous casualties.
First, the total losses by category. You see significantly more losses for Russia than for Ukraine. This is the first month where Rubicon played a significant part of the Ukrainian losses.
Roughly 17% of Ukraine's losses in the month of February were from Rubicon (328 out of 1965). Primarily in Kursk.
Here you can see Tank, Infantry Fighting Vehicle, Armored Personnel Carrier, and MRAP losses by day through the month. Note that Russia uses few MRAPs.
While Trump’s team spreads defeatism and tries to blackmail Ukraine into surrender, Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield remain unimpressed by the proclamations coming out of Washington Oblast.
Their actions speak louder than words.
In recent days, Ukraine has:
Recaptured Kotlyne
Liberated Pischane
Pushed into Shevchenko
These gains prove two critical points.
🔹 First: Ukraine still has the ability to seize the initiative.
Despite immense challenges, its military can concentrate forces, execute counterattacks, and maintain operational momentum—suggesting it retains significant reserves.
If the West falters, Ukraine can continue fighting until Russia collapses. Slowly trading land against Russian offensive potentials.
If the West finds its backbone, Ukraine can decisively defeat Russia and end the war on just terms.
Europe could have invested 1-2 hundred billion dollars over the past 3 years, but instead they will have to invest 3-5 trillion over the next 20. I’ve talked about this many times in the past. The politicians made very unwise decisions because they were afraid.
Should have gone 100% all in on making Ukraine win from day 1. Full on everything. It would have fixed every problem. Countries still aren’t even doing this. Every single day you delay will cost you 100 or 1000 times more over the next few years.
You thought it cost too much to squeeze 20-30 billion dollars into your budget for 5 years. Imagine having to fit in 500 billion.
There is absolutely no reason for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, at all, for any reason, in the year 2025. Any negotiations should start in mid 2026, when the Russian economy has imploded, their deficits are blasting off to the moon, and Russia can no longer fight.
Every country should be looking at the situation like this: we only have to get ukraine through the next 12-18 months. We need to throw in the money, weapons, and ammo available now to make this happen. This is not a forever war. There is 1 year left. We are 75% done.
Russia will have absolutely no ability to wage war in the year 2027. Zero ability. Bringing the war into 2027 should be the threat to Russia. If we supply Ukraine through to that time period, Russia risks absolute implosion.