In the Kupyansk area there is ongoing fighting in the forests. Ukraine performed heavier than usual artillery strikes in this area. I don't know of any territorial changes.
The Kreminna and Siversk areas are more or less status quo. Fighting in the forests near Kreminna, fighting near Bilohorivka south of Kreminna, and minor fighting in all of the front line towns around Siversk. No changes.
North of Bakhmut, Russia is attacking along the railways to Yahidne. There is heavy fighting in the area of the railway station in the north of Bakhmut. Some Russians claim to have captured Yahidne, but I see no evidence. Ukraine's main line of defense here is the trainstation.
There is also heavy fighting in the areas of the forested areas north of Berkhivka and Dubovo-Vasylivka.
In east and south Bakhmut, I see no significant changes.
West of Bakhmut, Russia is trying to attack Ivanivske and the Kostyantynivka highway without success.
Russia fired two missiles, perhaps Iskander-Ks, toward Kramatorsk.
They fired another missile to an old mine near Toretsk.
The Avdiivka area had no major changes today.
Russia dropped 500kg bombs on the Coke Plant in Avdiivka.
There was fighting near Oleksandropil, Novobakhmutivka, Krasnohorivka, and Vesele without changes.
Fighting near Vodyane and Nevelske without changes. The heaviest fighting is near Nevelske where Russia is intending to breakthrough, although they do not seem to have the numbers required. Russia may have had minor advances up a single treeline, perhaps 200 meters or so.
Around Marinka, the Russian offense has stalled, no changes.
Vuhledar, no known changes.
In addition to this, Russia fired incendiary rounds into Kherson (likely thermite), multiple missiles into Zaporizhzhia (likely Iskander-K). There was also a weird event in Belgorod where Russia fired several missiles, and none of them seemed to go far, perhaps malfunctions.
This event in Belgorod was tactfully described as "if you listen closely, you can hear our neighbor's farts exploding". One Russian claimed Ukraine was shooting all the missiles down with a secret Patriot battery, which was pretty funny.
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Russians cry of explosions in Donetsk, Makiivka, Khartsyzk, Debaltsevo, Ilovaisk, and Mariupol.
Donetsk and Makiivka are both basically in artillery range so not too interesting. Ilovaisk is a railway hub that Ukraine regularly shoots missiles into. Kartsyzk is town north of Ilovaisk. Debaltseve is like halfway between Horlivka and Alchevsk so easily HIMARS range.
Mariupol is the big questionmark here. Or exclamation point, depending how you look at it.
News for today:
Russia is attacking Synkivka with increasing intensity, mainly with infantry moving through the forests supported by heavy mortar fire. I expect Russia to maintain, if not increase, this intensity for the next week+, with the goal of reaching Kupyansk/Oskil River.
Russia is heavily shelling the Kyslivka/Kotlyarivka area in preparation for future attacks. They sent DRGs into these towns, and from what I read they were destroyed.
This is how these two areas relate to one another.
Some news from the past few days. First, the Kupyansk area:
Russia has claimed to have capture Hryanykivka. The most reliable account I have is from a Russian officer in the area who claims they broke the first line of Ukrainian defense.
The narrow river allows Ukraine to counterattack from Dvorichna. This could explain the difference in perspective where Russia could claim control over the town of Hryanykivka while simultaneously believing they only penetrated the main line of defense. Both can be true.
Russians are also attacking Synkivka, which will become the primary focus of attack in the coming days. Russia will then shift their focus south to Petropavlivka and attempt to push toward Kupyansk. This is their stated goal, which they hope to accomplish in the next 2 weeks.
Mentour Pilot made a video about the Russian aviation industry and what “unapproved aircraft components” means and why it is so incredibly dangerous to use them.
Counterfeit parts are an issue, but not even the major issue. The major issue is using original components made by the original manufacturer. Which might seem counter intuitive, parts can be out of spec, used, beyond their expiration date, etc. Almost impossible to identify.
Basically, you can have your plane inspected. Any parts that fail inspection you can put into a box and sell to Russia saying it is used. Russia can’t tell it failed inspection and uses it.
Its difficult for me to understand how elon musk even has money considering he’s just so bad at running a business.
like, he literally went to people and said okay so you’re paying me on a subscription that I bet 90% of you forgot you bought. imma first cancel that, i don’t want you money. but, also, fuck you, pay me twp, no THREE times more than before! and! and! Imma make the product worse!
North of Kupyansk, in the Hryanykivka and Dvorichne area, Russian troops have pushed Ukraine back to their main line of defense along the railway. Their attempts to penetrate this defensive line have failed.
Russia has declared this some sort of victory, claiming they control the eastern part of Dvorichne. In reality, the east part was a gray area, and the Russian assault stopped when it met real resistance.