MarkHertling Profile picture
Feb 21 10 tweets 4 min read
Woke up early to Putin's "State of the Russian Federation" remarks. It's mostly being reported due to his comments about him deciding to end the New Start Treaty agreements.

While that was significant, there was MUCH more. 1/
Putin "vowed" to "systemically" continue the offensive in Ukraine.

As I said in this @washingtonpost piece published yesterday, Putin's military has failed, in all 5 phases of this war, in achieving his strategic objectives. 2/
wapo.st/3YRnCcs.
Putin was bold enough to say:

"Ukraine is not just a neighboring country. It is an inalienable part of our own history, culture & spiritual space. These are our comrades, those dearest to us."

As he spoke, RU forces hit Kherson killing 6 "comrades." 3/
nytimes.com/video/world/eu…
One ironic line from the man jailing Navalny & other journalists:

"We see more and more acts enabling the Ukrainian military & law enforcement agencies to crack down on the freedom of speech, dissent, and going after their opposition." 4/
amnesty.org/en/latest/news…
On NATO:

"The governments of E. European countries - speculating on Russophobia - brought their complexes & stereotypes about Russian threats to NATO insisting on building the collective defense against Russia."

Wonder why? 5/
fpri.org/article/2020/1…
There were several other "interesting" topics:

-Pedophilia is the norm in the west
-The west -primarily US but also all of NATO- actually started the war in Ukraine
-"western elites" are the ones pushing Ukraine to escalate, as real Ukrainians know they are part of Russia. 6/
Interestingly, those "traitors" in Russia who refuse mobilization or protest the war "will be punished." 7/

vox.com/2022/9/25/2337…
Bloggers in Russia and even several Russian media outlets declared the speech "the same rhetoric," and "repeats of past messages."

It was a sleeper. So much so that many were yawning and spening some of the speech catching up on rest. 8/

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
Oh...and his "chef," Prigohzin- while not naming Putin directly - insulted him in a nuanced way, further dividing military elements inside of the Kremlin.

This kind of open commentary isn't normal. 9/

rferl.org/a/russia-prigo…
A pretty sporty "State of the Federation," though no one shouted out "liar" & there were more poker faces than smirks. So that's a plus.

Problem is, as @fpleitgenCNN & others report, he still has the outward support of Russians in the capital.

Autocratic kleptocracy. 10/10

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More from @MarkHertling

Feb 16
For the record, the Russian attacks on Vuhledar have not "renewed doubts" for me.

The doubts have been there from the beginning.

Any offensive, carried out by an unprepared army, is always a failure.

A short 🧵 1/9
nytimes.com/2023/02/15/wor…
I've not provided battlefield comments for some time because both forces are fighting hard, surviving the winter, and prep for respective offensives.

Right now, there's a race between mobilization (RU) and the preparation for planned offensives (UA). 2/

vox.com/2022/9/25/2337…
There are various estimates of how many "soldiers" (& criminals) RU has mobilized & sent to the front. I'd guess it's equal to or slightly greater than the initial invasion force (190K).

But as I've said many times, these are untrained forces. 3/

defense.gov/News/News-Stor…
Read 9 tweets
Feb 7
The @GOP is debating on condemning @potus actions on the China Balloon at the SOTU. If they do condemn, after the gang of eight and then other members it will only show how unserious they are about national security.

Why? A short 🧵 1/10
As I said on Friday, as a former Cavalryman I learned that unless there is an immediate threat, a smart person spends time observing, reporting, and analyzing.

While the immediate reaction may be "shoot it down," experts may provide a more prudent approach.

That happened. 2/
We'll learn @NORADCommand tracked across the Bering Sea, Aleutians, Alaska & then Canada.

Based on experience, there was constant tracking, as has been reported, and immediate risk mitigation (jamming, spoofing, following).

That's what the military does. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Jan 24
For those saying "don't doubt Ukraine's soldiers, they've proven themselves & can handle any tank they're given," I'd say 3 things:

1. I've never doubted Ukrainian tankers to learn how to fire & drive the Abrams. I've worked w/ Ukraine's Army, I know them. They're good. 1/
2. It's isn't "learning the tank" I'm concerned about:
--can they quickly learn the capability of the Abrams (& Leopard II) the way it is designed to operate. That's training w/ other tanks, infantry, scouts, drones,artillery, engineers, intel...all more than crew training. 2/
--when the tank - or small critical parts in the tank - break (which they do), & when those small & large replacement parts need replacing, & when it requires daily/weekly/monthly echelon maintenance, will Ukraine have also trained those who do these things. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Jan 21
Woke up this morning to find a thread from someone claiming I posted things that are "100% untrue" about the "M1."

I hesitate to respond to @secretsqrl123 - especially since he posted an insulting tweet (violating my rule #1) - but providing tank insight is important to me. 1/20
"David" is a "former ADA 16/14R & 96B/P (an air defense soldier & intel analyst w/ airborne experience). He is a "master driver & a 22 yr combat vet." To which I say "thanks for ur service."

Don't know how much tank experience he has, but he gets some things right in his 🧵2/
He also gets things wrong.

Since he gives his creds, here are mine:
-37 years in armor.
-served on M60, M60A1, M60A2,M1, M1A1, M1A2
-tank platoon leader, company commander (x2), cav sqdn S3 (in combat), cav squadron Cdr at Armor School (teaching M1 Tank Commanders Course) 3/
Read 20 tweets
Jan 19
The next US aid package to Ukraine will be announced Friday.

Reports suggest that package includes a large number of Stryker Fighting Vehicles & more Bradleys.

I'm pretty familiar with the Strykers. This is a terrific. 1/10

washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
In 2000, I was commanding 3/2 Armored Brigade (Arrowhead!), when I received new orders to be prepared to field a new organization with new equipment.

Our Brigade would become the 1st Interim Brigade Combat Team (IBCT), then later the Stryker Brigade Combat Team (SBCT) 2/
While the Abrams tank is named for GEN Creighton Abrams (hero of the Battle of the Bulge), and the Bradley is name after GEN Omar Bradley, the Stryker is named after two Medal of Honor winners - PFC Stuart Stryker (World War II) & SPC4 Robert Stryker (Vietnam) 3/
Read 10 tweets
Jan 16
Military theorists & historians have –in my view, incorrectly- concluded there are 2 types of strategy.
One is annihilation & the other is attrition (or exhaustion).
While these aren’t the *only* strategies, it's helpful to understand them to comprehend Ukraine right now.1/11
A strategy of ANNIHILATION suggests a nation can defeat its enemy by forcing a decision (or series of decisions) by using overwhelming maneuver, effective political & military leadership, and combined actions (like offensive operations, alliances, economics , information, etc).2/
Through history, “battles of annihilation” occurred when a military force is surrounded & defeated & an army is forced to surrender. As a result, the nation no longer resists because it lost its force. (Note: a battle of annihilation isn’t a strategy of annihilation).3/
Read 11 tweets

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