Thread by @mironov_fm

Assessing the Impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports

Joint with @ben_hilgenstock @elinaribakova @mironov_fm @TaniaBabina @itskhoki

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

Surprisingly, we do not find crude oil discounts as large as those reflected in Urals
prices: in the post-embargo/price cap period, the average export price for Russian crude
oil stood at around $74/barrel based on our data—compared to Urals at $52/barrel.

..our findings suggest that going forward, the enforcement of sanctions on Russian oil exports is
critical—including ensuring compliance with price cap-related restrictions on shipping, maritime insurance, and other services. This is of particular importance as
sales to...

Russian trade surplus skyrocketed after the war

Composition of Russian Goods Exports

!!! Russia is selling its oil for much higher prices than Urals crude prices !!!

Contributions to Change in Oil Payments by countries/group of countries

EU import of Russian oil

Crude Oil Exports by Period

Crude Oil Price by Export Channel

What would happen if EU acted earlier:

Russian Exports of Oil Products by Category

Average Weekly Oil Product Exports from Baltic Sea Ports

Prices for Oil Products

!!! Soaring prices supported overall Russian energy earnings and led to record high
goods exports of $532 billion, an increase of 21% over 2021. At the same time,
imports fell significantly in 2022Q2 and—while they essentially recovered fully from
their post-invasion collapse !!!

Assessing the Impact of International Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports (we updated the abstract)
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Joint with
@ben_hilgenstock
@elinaribakova
@mironov_fm
@TaniaBabina
@itskhoki