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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Feb 22, 2023 • 8 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
This is going to be a JDAM-ER 🧵to try and explain the battlefield impact of the weapon in the Ukrainian Air Force, AKA the PSU.

Essentially this is a glide bomb kit version of the ubiquitous JDAM that pairs well with the PSU Su-24 fleet, the Soviet answer to the USAF F-111.
1/8
The ability of the Su-24 to fly transonic on the deck in a low density integrated air defense environment means there are a lot of low level holes in radar coverage to lob a stick of glide bombs out of, at high speed, inside occupied Ukraine.

2/8
The PSU would be able to hit a number of just over 100 km Russian logistical targets with a 60 km low altitude penetration & JDAM-ER toss bomb attack profile.

See examples⬇️

3/8
The JDAM-ER is the result of a US-Australian cooperation agreement where in the Australians developed a glide kit for the Boeing JDAM five years ago that comes in several flavors & ranges.

It is unclear if the jet engine version of the JDAM-ER will be provided to the PSU.

4/8 Image
If jet powered JDAM-ER was provided, PSU Su-24's don't have to enter occupied Ukrainian air space to kill Russian logistical targets.

160 nautical miles is ~296 km, just shy of the ATACMS 300km.

5/8
And if it wasn't.

The Russian Army should still worried about the Kerch Straits Bridge catching some JDAM-ER as they have GMLRS style microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) inertial measurement units (IMU) that let them ignore Russian GPS jamming.

6/8
mobilityengineeringtech.com/component/cont…
One more thing, unless the Russians park a 24/7 A-50 Mainstay AWACS orbit over Crimea.

The SU-24 plus JDAM-ER combination just made Sevastopol untenable as a fleet base.

The JDAM-ER MEMS inertial guidance is as accurate as GMLRS, enough to plink warships at their piers...
7/8 ImageImageImage
...even if the GPS is jammed.

The arrival of JDAM-ER in the PSU's SU-24 Fleet is when Russia's lack of air superiority in Ukraine will kill them.

8/8 ImageImage

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 12
This is one of the most logistically incompetent hot takes by any German journalist in the Russo-Ukrainian War.

95% getting through is a 5% loss rate per trip
95%(x) for 10 to 20 kills means x = 200 to 400 trucks on this route
10 trips means 40% total fleet loss - 80 to 160 trucks
1/Image
You can follow the 5% loss curve in this 500 unit fleet at 10 exposures in the graphic below.

A 40% fleet loss in 10 days from a 5% drone loss rate is logistical collapse for the Russian Army in occupied Ukraine.

Only some trying to get AfD eyeballs would say different.

2/ Image
This leaves out the fact that the Russian Army doesn't use *ANY* mechanized logistical enabler like pallets, Truck D-rings, forklifts, or telehandlers.

Russian trucks are in the drone kill zones 3 times as long as a Western truck due to loading times.

Receipts:
3/3
 x.com/i/grok/share/e…
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 10
Regarding this:

"The DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile, with a range of approximately 4,000 to 5,000 kilometers, was specifically designed and publicly nicknamed by Chinese military analysts as the "Guam Killer.""

I disagree with those analysts.
1/
The Chinese PD-2900 drone (2,500 km range, 12-hour endurance, 250 km/h speed, stealthy Su-57-like design) is far more a "Guam Killer" than the DF-26.

It is a matter of numbers.

2/
As laid out by warquants -dot- com, China is buying one million OWA drones to destroy all US/Taiwan/Taiwan allied military logistics from Guam to the China coast.

A quantity of one million "Shaheed plus" class OWA drones has quality all its own.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 5
The reduction in murder deaths -IS NOT- due to law enforcement, or reductions in underlying rates of violence.

It is due to the fact that medical care has improved such that the same gunshot wound inflicted in 2015 is 1/3 as lethal as 1960.

Murder rate🧵
1/
Homicide statistics since the early 1960s are not comparable to earlier periods because medical advances have turned many fatal injuries into survivable ones.

See the CDC report below⬇️


2/
There are four major medical trauma care changes since 1960 reducing murder rates:

1. Trauma centers established ~1961.

2. Standardized trauma procedures ~1978.

3. Adoption of military (Korea/Vietnam) emergency treatment, air transport, and improved triage ~1986.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 29
This passage:

"Lebanese security forces reportedly seized 1 truck last June carrying 5,000 explosive drones..."

...is the heart of why I say that the US Army & USMC ground troops will bleed heavily in their first real drone war.

Drone War🧵
Each of those 5,000 Hezbollah drones is individually far more lethal than a dumb 155mm shell, and a 5-ton truck can carry only 176 of them.

Each of those 5,000 drone can kill a truck carrying those 176 shells.

2/ Image
You simply can't hide from drones like you can from a shell.

It will follow you inside hard cover with a thermobaric warhead.

There is no safe space on the battlefield unless you build one with fishing nets and drone jammers.
3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 29
I'm tempted to say the difference between military flag ranks who are competent at 2026 peer to peer warfare, and those who are not, is the understanding and application of attritional loss curves to combat loss rates, electronic warfare and logistics.

Professional military education (PME)🧵
1/Image
The set of curves I had an AI produce for me above have been used for air warfare many times starting at the end of WW2, in the USSBS after WW2 and by many classic RAND airpower studies from the 1950's to 1980's.

2/ Image
All post 9/11/2001 Western flag ranks are counter-insurgency (COIN) trained & experienced.

They have no gut feel at all to statistical attrition models at all.

These "COIN-head" flags may prove to be highly resistant to changing this. Which is required to deal with drones.
2/Image
Read 14 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 27
The effectiveness of drones is directly affected by the electronic warfare competence of the drone users.

The fact that the US Army defenestrated every EW practitioner in the 2000's and has compete "EW virgins" as flag rank leadership means it will fail with mass casualties in its first major drone war combat.
1/3
A US Army serious about drone warfare would:

- Rebuild the full EW enterprise with organic division-level EW battalions and real exercises.

- Embed EW jamming into all combat branches (not MI-only).

- Shift to gun/autocannon dominant combined-arms counter-drone doctrine.

2/3
- Require FAA drone pilot + Ham radio licenses for flag ranks to build drone domain literacy.

None of these four reforms will happen until after US Army soldiers are deep in both defeat and buckets of blood.

3/3
Read 4 tweets

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