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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Feb 22, 2023 • 8 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
This is going to be a JDAM-ER 🧵to try and explain the battlefield impact of the weapon in the Ukrainian Air Force, AKA the PSU.

Essentially this is a glide bomb kit version of the ubiquitous JDAM that pairs well with the PSU Su-24 fleet, the Soviet answer to the USAF F-111.
1/8
The ability of the Su-24 to fly transonic on the deck in a low density integrated air defense environment means there are a lot of low level holes in radar coverage to lob a stick of glide bombs out of, at high speed, inside occupied Ukraine.

2/8
The PSU would be able to hit a number of just over 100 km Russian logistical targets with a 60 km low altitude penetration & JDAM-ER toss bomb attack profile.

See examples⬇️

3/8
The JDAM-ER is the result of a US-Australian cooperation agreement where in the Australians developed a glide kit for the Boeing JDAM five years ago that comes in several flavors & ranges.

It is unclear if the jet engine version of the JDAM-ER will be provided to the PSU.

4/8 Image
If jet powered JDAM-ER was provided, PSU Su-24's don't have to enter occupied Ukrainian air space to kill Russian logistical targets.

160 nautical miles is ~296 km, just shy of the ATACMS 300km.

5/8
And if it wasn't.

The Russian Army should still worried about the Kerch Straits Bridge catching some JDAM-ER as they have GMLRS style microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) inertial measurement units (IMU) that let them ignore Russian GPS jamming.

6/8
mobilityengineeringtech.com/component/cont…
One more thing, unless the Russians park a 24/7 A-50 Mainstay AWACS orbit over Crimea.

The SU-24 plus JDAM-ER combination just made Sevastopol untenable as a fleet base.

The JDAM-ER MEMS inertial guidance is as accurate as GMLRS, enough to plink warships at their piers...
7/8 ImageImageImage
...even if the GPS is jammed.

The arrival of JDAM-ER in the PSU's SU-24 Fleet is when Russia's lack of air superiority in Ukraine will kill them.

8/8 ImageImage

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 30
It is sad to see Ukraine is again in 2026 where it was in 2023.

Specifically, Ukraine is failing to use available barge alternatives to move grain through Odesa to the wider world markets.

1/
I pointed this out in a couple of posts in 2023, before the Black Sea grain deal put it on the very back burner, explaining what could be done.

Here is one post
2/
And here is another in a larger Russian truck, port clearance & barge logistical 🧵

3/
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 29
It's nice to see the US National Security establishment in July 2026 _FINALLY_ getting around to putting in print what I was writing about between April 2023 and Nov-Dec 2024.

Drone Revolution vs DC elites 🧵
1/
April 2023:

How drones have made Western intervention light infantry obsolete.



2/
January 2024:

“Distributed computing means distributed area denial military power in the age of drones.

We saw this in Armenia in 2020… Ukraine since Feb 2022… and… Yemen in 2024.”



3/
Read 9 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 19
Sadly for Grikin, the damage done to Russia's energy transport sector is already permanent.

We are ~six months from a Russian systemic economic collapse just from Ukrainian damage inflicted to date.

Russian collapse 🧵
1/7
The additional accumulated damage - beyond revisits to already damaged refineries - to the Russian power grid and POL supply chain in the next two months may speed this up to four months, to late November 2026, AKA just in Time for the US elections.

Russia lost 83 power
2/7 Image
...sub-stations since 1 July 2026 in occupied Ukraine.

Russia will have to strip its own unique power grid to replace these losses, shutting down supply in "less significant" parts of Russia.


3/7ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/414…
Read 8 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 11
I've been advocating that Ukraine strike Russian tugs as part of a larger campaign against Russian riverine and littoral maritime traffic since 2022.

Ukraine has delivered on all my expectations of what that would accomplish in the last five days.

Brown Water logistics🧵
1/
This is where I underscored the historical Russian use of barge logistics in WW2 as a basis for what they would be doing in occupied Ukraine

2/
This 2023 post is where I posed the question of how large Russian riverine/littoral/brown water logistical efforts were to support Russian occupation forces in southern Ukraine.
3/
Read 9 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 10
Given the massive Ukrainian victory in the "Battle of the Azov Sea."

We can say Ukraine has achieved “Usable Drone Air Superiority" over the Sea of Azov in exactly the way the Chinese would in the waters around, & air over, Taiwan when it invades.
🧵

1/
 united24media.com/war-in-ukraine…
The "Battle of the Azov Sea" shares a lot of historical elements of both the WW2 "Battle of the Bismarck Sea" and the slaughter of Allied oil tankers in 1942 during Operation Drumbeat (Paukenschlag) and Operation Neuland.

2/ Image
Image
Image
The Battle of the Bismarck Sea was the slaughter of 12 ships of a 16 ship Imperial Japanese convoy of eight IJA freighters and eight IJN destroyers moving 6,900 IJA troops.

Tipped off by IJN seaplane deployments & radio intercepts, only 2,700 IJA troops arrived w/o weapons or ammo.
3/Image
Read 12 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 2
Just...no. Russia HAS BEEN "Battle of the Cities" from the very beginning...targeting hospitals as a means of destroying ethnic minorities.

This has been Russian policy for DECADES.

Ukraine retaliating for atrocity is _RECIPROCITY_ per the Laws of War, not degeneracy.
1/2
I asked @grok to document this Russian policy of atrocity at the link, excerpt:

"February 24, 2022–present (Full-scale Russian invasion): The scale escalated dramatically. As of May 2026, the WHO had verified more than 3,000 attacks on healthcare via its Surveillance System for Attacks on Health Care (SSA). A coalition of organizations (including PHR, eyeWitness, Truth Hounds, etc.) documented ~3,095 attacks, with 1,632 damaging or destroying hospitals and clinics"

x.com/i/grok?convers…
2/
I'm afraid @cdrsalamander has gotten the moral vectors in the Russo-Ukrainian war wrong.

What is degenerate here isn't RECIPROCITY.

Degeneracy here is defined as using Woke NGO Elite definitions of morality, AKA claiming AFU RECIPROCITY per the laws of war as a war crime.
3/3 Image
Read 4 tweets

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