Trent Telenko Profile picture
Feb 22, 2023 8 tweets 4 min read Read on X
This is going to be a JDAM-ER 🧵to try and explain the battlefield impact of the weapon in the Ukrainian Air Force, AKA the PSU.

Essentially this is a glide bomb kit version of the ubiquitous JDAM that pairs well with the PSU Su-24 fleet, the Soviet answer to the USAF F-111.
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The ability of the Su-24 to fly transonic on the deck in a low density integrated air defense environment means there are a lot of low level holes in radar coverage to lob a stick of glide bombs out of, at high speed, inside occupied Ukraine.

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The PSU would be able to hit a number of just over 100 km Russian logistical targets with a 60 km low altitude penetration & JDAM-ER toss bomb attack profile.

See examples⬇️

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The JDAM-ER is the result of a US-Australian cooperation agreement where in the Australians developed a glide kit for the Boeing JDAM five years ago that comes in several flavors & ranges.

It is unclear if the jet engine version of the JDAM-ER will be provided to the PSU.

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If jet powered JDAM-ER was provided, PSU Su-24's don't have to enter occupied Ukrainian air space to kill Russian logistical targets.

160 nautical miles is ~296 km, just shy of the ATACMS 300km.

5/8
And if it wasn't.

The Russian Army should still worried about the Kerch Straits Bridge catching some JDAM-ER as they have GMLRS style microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) inertial measurement units (IMU) that let them ignore Russian GPS jamming.

6/8

mobilityengineeringtech.com/component/cont…
One more thing, unless the Russians park a 24/7 A-50 Mainstay AWACS orbit over Crimea.

The SU-24 plus JDAM-ER combination just made Sevastopol untenable as a fleet base.

The JDAM-ER MEMS inertial guidance is as accurate as GMLRS, enough to plink warships at their piers...
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...even if the GPS is jammed.

The arrival of JDAM-ER in the PSU's SU-24 Fleet is when Russia's lack of air superiority in Ukraine will kill them.

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More from @TrentTelenko

Sep 8
Pay very close attention to this requiem on Russian mortar shell logistics in the age of drones.

Moving mortar shells to a position close to the front under FPV drones kills those moving the shells in a continuous metronome.

Logistical Professionalism🧵
1/
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"Amateurs talk strategy while professionals talk logistics."

It is the unprofessional silence of the Field Artillery crowd on X about shell motor transport logistics in the age of drones that impeaches them.⬇️

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Mortar & gun tubes have massive flash & blast signatures that always give away the general position of guns.

All drone operators have to do is keep a surveillance drone in line-of-sight watching the roads trucks use to reach that area 24/7 & wait.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Sep 7
The moral collapse of the Biden-Sullivan Administration is now complete.

They are providing Russia an "ATACMS Sanctuary" for genocidal attacks on the Ukrainian civilian populations.

It is a de facto political alliance with Evil.

1/
@jakeSullivan and Finer have one agenda - save Russia from itself.

Russia started this war as a colonial "Special Military Operation" to exterminate Ukrainian political/intellectual elites, which has now extended to a policy of Ukrainian genocide⬇️

2/
Why the Biden-Sullivan Administration is supporting this Russian colonial genocide in Ukraine I cannot fathom, beyond kompromat.

Groupthink/CYA motives makes no sense either as they are being slow roasted alive in social and mass media.

No other alternative makes sense.😱🤯
3/3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 7
There are times in the Russo-Ukrainian War I really want to "head desk" at some of the stupid I've seen as a military historian.

One of those things is barge logistics.😖

A thing I have been hammering on for years on X...

1/
newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russian-f…
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...along with trucks and Ukraine notices just now?!?

WTF, over...🤦‍♂️

Nazi Marinefährprahm (MFP, naval ferry barge) were key logistical units of the Germans in the Baltic, Black, North and Mediterranean seas.


2/ en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marinef%C…


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Ukraine focusing on railway ferries and naval landing ships/craft to the exclusion of every other kind of towed barge or motorized barge-ferry is par for the group think that passes for "Western logistical (lack of) intelligence" we have seen over and over again in this war.

3/
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Read 11 tweets
Sep 3
This X post From @Prune602 I've pasted below is from a long & crunchy data filled thread looking at the crashing Russian railway system capacity.

The thread is screaming several things at me about AFU strategic bombing strategy and its objective for the Russian economy.

1/
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The biggest "Ah-Hah!" in the thread was the observation that the Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries and depots were less an oil campaign than a transportation campaign aimed at sucking up Russian rail capacity.

>>"Oil & Oil (Petroleum Products),

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...they did move more in August than previously.  This may have been because they HAD to due to the oil depot problems.

Remember, any time they ADD or REMOVE an export ban on gasoline (or similar) it causes difficulties for Russian Railways."

3/
Read 15 tweets
Sep 2
At 1,300 KIA/MIA a day, the Russians lose all the ground combat elements of a Russian division a week.

The drop in Russian artillery losses from 70 to 10 a day reflects either fewer tubes being used or an unwillingness to expose tubes w/o heavy drone jamming covering them.

1/
I am struggling to think of a post WW2 campaign with loss rates of a division per week.

Maybe the 1980's Iranian marsh offensives Iran-Iraq war?

Yet this is a material truth has not put a dent into the convictions in the DC elites around the Biden-Sullivan Administration

2/

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...that Russia is surging ahead in material and manpower.

RuAF shell fire, plus their tube & tank loss rates are all declining.

Yet I see this nonsense popping up all over the place in media sources for which veracity is a meaningless concept.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Sep 2
What is the thing that stands out the most in this Moscow video of an AFU drone striking a Russian refinery _IN_DAYLIGHT_?

IT'S WHAT'S MISSING.

Consider: Where are the VKS fighter jets?

Where Russian Drone Defense vs AFU strategic drone bombing🧵
1/
Ukrainian PSU Mig-29's are downing Shaheed's in daylight.

Where are the Russian fighter jets over Moscow?

2/
Ukrainian PSU Hind helicopters are in the air shooting down Shaheed's in daylight.

Where are the Russian VKS Hind attack choppers over Moscow?

3/
Read 20 tweets

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