Trent Telenko Profile picture
Feb 22, 2023 8 tweets 4 min read Read on X
This is going to be a JDAM-ER 🧵to try and explain the battlefield impact of the weapon in the Ukrainian Air Force, AKA the PSU.

Essentially this is a glide bomb kit version of the ubiquitous JDAM that pairs well with the PSU Su-24 fleet, the Soviet answer to the USAF F-111.
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The ability of the Su-24 to fly transonic on the deck in a low density integrated air defense environment means there are a lot of low level holes in radar coverage to lob a stick of glide bombs out of, at high speed, inside occupied Ukraine.

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The PSU would be able to hit a number of just over 100 km Russian logistical targets with a 60 km low altitude penetration & JDAM-ER toss bomb attack profile.

See examples⬇️

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The JDAM-ER is the result of a US-Australian cooperation agreement where in the Australians developed a glide kit for the Boeing JDAM five years ago that comes in several flavors & ranges.

It is unclear if the jet engine version of the JDAM-ER will be provided to the PSU.

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If jet powered JDAM-ER was provided, PSU Su-24's don't have to enter occupied Ukrainian air space to kill Russian logistical targets.

160 nautical miles is ~296 km, just shy of the ATACMS 300km.

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And if it wasn't.

The Russian Army should still worried about the Kerch Straits Bridge catching some JDAM-ER as they have GMLRS style microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) inertial measurement units (IMU) that let them ignore Russian GPS jamming.

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mobilityengineeringtech.com/component/cont…
One more thing, unless the Russians park a 24/7 A-50 Mainstay AWACS orbit over Crimea.

The SU-24 plus JDAM-ER combination just made Sevastopol untenable as a fleet base.

The JDAM-ER MEMS inertial guidance is as accurate as GMLRS, enough to plink warships at their piers...
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...even if the GPS is jammed.

The arrival of JDAM-ER in the PSU's SU-24 Fleet is when Russia's lack of air superiority in Ukraine will kill them.

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More from @TrentTelenko

Nov 30
Pro-Russian/Pro-Syrian accounts on X seem to be a little behind on battlefield developments in Syria.

Assad SAA forces cannot be holding a defense line at Hama, if large columns of Syrian opposition forces have passed through Hama on the way to Homs.🙄

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The reported mutiny of the 47th Brigade of the 11th SAA Division near Hama is playing a large role in this development.⬇️

Syrian opposition offensive is beginning to look a lot like the fall of the Republic of South Vietnam in 1975.

2/3
I've got some popcorn ready for the "VKS evacuation helicopters off of the Russian embassy in Damascus" moment.

Something like this Saigon 1975 photo with an Mi-17 in the starring role.

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Read 4 tweets
Nov 22
So, the Russians are using TMM-6 assault scissor bridges to cross gaps in partially destroyed bridges?

Nothing like a medium girder bridge?

This points not only to a major gap -ahem- in Russian bridging capability, but also one in the Russian state.

Logistics & the State🧵
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I've mentioned this gap in both Russian bridging capability and Western Military Intelligence assumptions about it back in June of 2023.

2/
That video of Ukrainian PSU glide bomb strikes underlines Russia still has nothing like the partial dry bridge gap crossing capability of a medium girder bridge in the 3rd year of the war in Ukraine.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Nov 22
This line about AFU drone warheads:

>>It is especially well suited for attacking energy infrastructure.

Makes me wonder what is about to happen to the Russian power grid after Pres. Biden leaves office.🤔⬇️
Please recall DR. Celeste Wallander [ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
FOR INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS] extended rant about what the Biden Administration considered civilian versus military targets inside Russia for Ukrainian assault drones.

2/
Wallander saying Russian oil refineries are civilian targets most likely means the Biden Administration views Russian power infrastructure even more of a civilian target.

The lack of AFU grid strikes on Russia & this new power grid killing drone warhead make me go...hummm.🤔
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Read 4 tweets
Nov 21
This act of cost-ineffective public theater by Putin is his going away present to the Western escalation managers they so desperately need to justify their failed retread of appeasement policy jobs

The cost of an IRBM/ICBM is around 10-20 times the cost of an ALCM/GLCM/SLCM
1/
...for about the same payload, with the several hundred meter CEP accuracy of a daylight of February 1945 B-17 raid.

The Putin regime put out propaganda yesterday about using the RS-26 Rubezh, a SS-20 SABER lookalike, to scare Western policy makers⬇️

2/
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It is unlikely the Putin Regime has a significant warstock of such missiles, & every RS-26 Russia fires reduces the nuclear threat to the USA.

It is military madness...but it's great for impressing dullards in media and politics like @JakeSullivan46, German Chancellor Scholz
3/
Read 8 tweets
Nov 20
Please note:

@elonmusk has stated two launches from now there will be an attempted 2nd stage catch at Boca Chica.

That is in the 1st quarter of 2025.

The SpaceX Starship catch will be the "HMS Dreadnought" moment of the Space age.
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After that event, every non-reusable orbital class rocket launcher in the world designed and built before her will be obsolete the same way every battleship built and designed before the all big gun HMS Dreadnought was made so.

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Nothing except another fully reusable rocket can compete with Starship in exactly the same way that no other battleship could compete with HMS Dreadnought, unless it was a all big gun main battery dreadnought battleship.

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Read 4 tweets
Nov 19
People haven't paid anywhere near enough attention to this development⬇️

Russian cruise missile production is now like their tank production.

Russia is living off of Cold War stockpiles that are thinner & thinner as time goes on, & harder to resuscitate.

Attrition🧵
1/
The spokesman of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Andriy Yusov has stated that Russia's military-industrial complex can produce 40-50 Kh-101 cruise missiles every month.

2/
unian.ua/weapons/skilki…
The question that @GrandpaRoy2 photo raises is exactly how much of that X-101 production rate is being assembled using recycled Kh-55/55SM missile components?

"More than zero" was confirmed from that photo...but exactly how many?

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Read 15 tweets

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