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Lakshya Jain Profile picture
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Feb 22 • 3 tweets • 1 min read
Quite the night for Democrats today in special elections.

- In New Hampshire, a Hassan +9 seat is D+11.
- In Kentucky, a Biden +31 state senate seat is D+54
- In #VA04, they're on track to win a Biden +36 seat by 45.

Wow.
None of these things mean especially much in the larger context of elections, given how noisy specials are, but you'd rather win by large margins than not, and at the very least it dampens the notion of asymmetric partisan enthusiasm at the moment.
in other news, I hear there's a #TheTwitterFiles thread part 16 or something that came out and there's a big GOP internal debate going on over bathrooms that apparently we are supposed to care about

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More from @lxeagle17

Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Feb 21
Allred would be a good candidate for Democrats against Cruz. The argument against this for him would be that if he loses, he might tarnish his future prospects, but IMO Texas is a state where Dems can't just keep saving candidates for a promised future that never arrives.
Between 2012 and 2018, we have enough data on his candidate strength to suggest that Cruz would likely run roughly even with the presidential nominee. In essence, Allred's odds of beating Cruz are the same as Biden's chances of winning Texas in 2024 (low, IMO — 25%)
But: Allred mounting a good run here and coming close against Cruz would also set him up with a solid network and good name ID to mount a serious run for governor in 2026, especially if Biden loses in 2024. And that is genuinely possible; I'd say there's a ~40% chance Rs win.
Read 5 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Feb 18
Generally speaking, picking fights with public education has been historically extremely unpopular, regardless of where in the country you are. washingtonpost.com/education/2023…
It's one thing to say Florida has lurched hard to the right — it has. I'd be surprised if Dems came within 5 in 2024.

But it doesn't mean actions are consequence free for the perpetrators. DeSantis has national ambitions, and this type of stuff might not play well
One last thing I'd say is that DeSantis' biggest support group in a GOP primary is college-educated Rs, and those are significantly more likely to have children who will go to college. Would be curious to see if eventually this all has any effect if it continues (and maybe not)
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Feb 17
The Senate has an ~R+4 chamber bias. So why do Democrats still hold it?

The GOP blew race after race over the last several cycles through nominating bad candidates. Our @SplitTicket_ work suggests they might have had 56 seats if they'd nominated better.

split-ticket.org/2023/02/17/how…
@SplitTicket_ This is extraordinary. It's the list of races we estimate to have flipped due to a candidate quality differential from 2018, 2020, and 2022 (which covers all the current Senators). Two Republican flips, 10 Democratic ones (if you include Doug Jones).
@SplitTicket_ We constructed Wins-Above-Replacement models for the House and Senate for 2018, 2020, and 2022 in the process of doing this piece, and you can find them from our homepage split-ticket.org. We now have a comprehensive federal candidate quality database for the last 6 years!
Read 7 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Jan 28
Seen quite a few takes lately asserting that Trump is the "more moderate" option between him and DeSantis and honestly, I don't think I agree. Basically every bit of information we have would suggest voters view Trump/Trump-aligned candidates as much more extreme than DeSantis.
The argument goes "DeSantis is focused on culture war stuff and the midwest will not like that, plus Trump will run to his left on Social Security and Medicare".

But there's a very real penalty for things like trying to overturn elections. Moderation isn't just economics.
The better question is what *primary* voters will think of as more moderate, and I honestly think you can make a good case for either of them in a GOP primary. But I'm talking about "RDS would do worse than Trump in Michigan" takes — I don't think I agree.
Read 5 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Jan 28
i really do not understand. why on earth is this news?
what value is gained out of posting this guy's spotify playlists? the only thing this is going to do is boost a fraud and make him even more of a cult figure.
we're literally two steps away from people posting a photo of George Santos eating a muffin without a napkin and then half of the replies will be DC gossipers saying "omg he just like me fr" or something
Read 4 tweets
Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Jan 24
Sometimes I re-examine aftermath of 2016, and what strikes me is how Democrats bent over backwards to explain why Trump was a better candidate than they expected. Meanwhile, I still see most GOP takes calling Fetterman a horrid candidate and Laxalt a good one. I just...?????
A party with serious political ambitions does not simply brush off a postmortem by saying "we're fine, it's everyone else that's the issue" and then ask the guys who lost them the election to conduct it (Blake Masters etc). This is just insane.
After 2016, Democrats literally went on a national "what happened" introspective tour to figure out how the hell they lost and then decided to put a laser focus on electability for the foreseeable future. After 2022, the GOP somehow thinks the answer is to...crack down on VBM?
Read 4 tweets

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