Thread by @MLiebreich

It will take until 2030 to reign in the current bout of hydrogen mania, embark on a real plan to eliminate the 2.3% of emissions currently caused by 94 Mt/year of grey & black hydrogen, and target its use on a few otherwise hard-to-decarbonise sectors. We are in the foothills. 1/

Let me be quite clear - we will need clean hydrogen. But fantasies of a hydrogen economy, hydrogen society and globally traded hydrogen market need to be abandoned. There will be a global market in ammonia, but mainly for fertilisers, chemicals, shipping fuel and some storage. 2/

Again, to be clear. The issue is not production cost. Learning curves mean green hydrogen will end up cheaper than grey. But nothing will change the physics and thermodynamics of hydrogen: low density; escapey; explodey; embrittley; NOx-producey if burnt; greenhouse gasey. 3/

You can try to get round these fundamental physical problems by using hydrogen derivatives like ammonia or methanol, or by using funky storage technologies like hydride or organic liquids. All these introduce process steps, capex, losses, weight, toxins or other nasties. 4/

Of course it would be nice if this were not the case, but it is. Wishful thinking, policy papers, models and tweets don't create reality. Nor does lobbying, in the end. Physics does. We don't use steam engines because physics. We mainly won't use hydrogen because physics. 5/

Of course this has uncomfortable implications. We are going to need a bigger grid and we have to start building it now. That means challenging bureaucracy, NIMBYs and contrarians. Blink and use hydrogen because of grid constraints, and you lock in a crappy solution forever. 6/

It also means a lot more mining. We are seeing a clearly orchestrated campaign to suggest this can't be done. It can, it must, and it must be just. Hydrogen changes but does not reduce mineral demand: think 4x more wind and solar, vast gas extraction for blue H2, PGMs, etc. 7/

As I said, it will take until 2030 for the current hype cycle to die away, leaving only a focus on decarbonizing current hydrogen production and a number of hard-to-abate sectors. There will be vast noise and lobbying along the way, but bit by bit #HydrogenReality will bite. 8/

We're already seeing it. Montpellier, finding that it's hydrogen buses cost 50% more to but and 500% more to maintain. 9/
sustainable-bus.com/fuel-cell-bus/…

#Wiesbaden retiring hydrogen buses and going electric. 10/
sustainable-bus.com/fuel-cell-bus/…

Baden-Würtemberg finding that electric trains would be cheaper than hydrogen trains. 11/
railtech.com/rolling-stock/…

#Canada's Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development, criticising @NRCan's #Hydrogen Strategy for using unfounded & unrealistic assumptions for production cost, technology uptake and state policies, while omitting infrastructure costs. 12/
oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/Engli…

UK House of Lords Env and CC Committee: "Hydrogen is not a serious option for home heating... misleading messages, including from the government, are negatively affecting take-up of established low carbon home heating technologies like heat pumps." 13/
hvpmag.co.uk/House-of-Lords…

Of course we have the famous peer-reviewed study of 32 independent reports, none of which found a meaningful role for hydrogen in space heating - unlike all the reports sponsored by the gas, gas network and heating industries. 14/
cell.com/joule/fulltext…

And don't forget the game-changing Madeddu et al paper which showed that 78% of Europe's industrial heat could be decarbonised using clean electricity and existing commercial technologies - 99% if you include technologies currently under development. 15/
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…

We will see lots more stories like these. Hydrogen projects low on the #HydrogenLadder being cancelled; grown-up auditing and scrutiny of hydrogen fantasy plans; progress on low-cost production and projects high on the ladder. We are entering the foothills of #H2RealityBites. 16/

Finally, for those who think I am sceptical about hydrogen because I am paid to be, or because I'm an investor in Chargepoint. 1) I assure you I could earn far more hyping hydrogen; 2) I'm also an investor in two fuel cell and two green fertiliser companies; 3) Get a life! 17/

And if you missed the start of this thread, or you want to read it on a loop, here you go!

https://twitter.com/MLiebreich/status/1628301702011953153?t=so6sU1RV0nRlw05tAyihXg&s=19