Prigozhin’s increasingly vitriolic war of words with the Russian MOD over ammo supplies suggests chickens are coming home to roost after he thought he was able to prosecute multiple vendettas 1/
Shoigu is an extremely deft political operator, and one of his defining characteristics is that you rarely see him working at it. He sets things up behind the scenes and then they seem just to happen. The very antithesis of Prigozhin’s bluster 2/
Is the MOD withholding ammo? Quite possibly, for all their denials, but in the context of growing ammo rationing, this is both unsurprising and justifiable. 3/
Along with the rotation of Wagner troops away from Bakhmut it sets scene for regulars to deliver Putin his first victory (however meaningless) for some time, after chewing up Wagner convict-mercs to get it. Prigozhin fumes but there isn’t much more he can do… 4/
As he’s dependent on the MOD for ammo and most fire support. Besides, he’s also losing ground politically and in the FSB’s crosshairs. He’s not doomed, just being taught a lesson and reminded he’s not a big beast. 5/
His volume operates on a bell curve: he’s loudest and most vitriolic when he’s winning or losing big. At present, he’s not winning. 6/end
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