Trent Telenko Profile picture
Feb 22, 2023 18 tweets 7 min read Read on X
My earlier JDAM-ER thread has generated a number of questions which I will be trying to answer in this🧵

The much cheaper JDAM-ER has been around for a while but has been overshadowed by the JSSAM, JASSM-ER, & LRASM in US military service.
1/18
This Australian DST video is the only one I've found on with images of the JDAM-ER testing.

A key take away is that JDAM-ER is in production for the Australian RAAF.⬇️

2/18
This and the next two articles have better range performance charts and plots on the JDAM-ER.

Including contractor supplied plots for the JDAM-ER demonstrator with the Aussie Kerkanya wing kit design.

3/18
ausairpower.net/TE-GTV-Kerkany…
I'm also dropping these articles because the Ukrainian defense media seems to have missed the point on the JDAM-ER.

See these concept of operations images.

ausairpower.net/TE-JDAMPt1.html
4/18
It seems they have no idea what it actually means in Ukraine's fight to liberate it's territory from Russian occupation.

JDAM-ER has been in RAAF service since 2015, as well as being in production, so there is a RAAF tactical library the PSU can use.
5/18
dst.defence.gov.au/innovation/joi…
Only requirement for JDAM and JDAM-ER is to use Mil-Std-1760C connections on a smart pylon.

All the Ukrainian PSU has to do in order to toss bomb waves of JDAM-ER is replicate the AGM-88 HARM missile interface used for it's Mig-29's and Su-27's...

6/18
...on the Su-24 & Su-25 fleets.

American JDAM's to Ukraine was announced many weeks ago but we have not seen any photos. So the initial operating capability & status are unknown.

But doing the JDAM-ER after generic JDAM will be easy-peasy, if it isn't simultaneous.

7/18
From one of the earlier links:

"The Key design objectives for the HdH (Hawker de Havilland now Boeing owned) product are lowest possible mass production cost, zero hardware changes to the existing GBU-31/32/35/38 tailkits, best possible performance, modularity, ease of

8/18
...maintenance and especially shortest possible assembly time in the field. The latter will be critical to user acceptance of the kit, the less time expended and the fewer errors in assembly when deployed in the middle of nowhere, the more popular the kit will be with...
9/18
...its users. The design philosophy is centred on producing a flexible product which can further grow as customers request additions. Should a customer pursue a high wing configuration, improved glide range, or a different wing sweep angle, the basic design is aimed at...

10/18
...accommodating such changes at the lowest incremental cost."

Short form: The Australian JDAM-ER glide kit was designed to be cheap, easy to mass produce, and for ease of installation with the minimum of tools.

11/18
Thus it will be easy for PSU ground crews at converted highway air bases to bolt together the JDAM-ER.

The Su-25, NATO code name Frogfoot, has eight weapons stations you can hang a 500lb GBU-38 JDAM bomb from.

12/18
Rather than a pair of PSU Su-25 flying low like this to get to the front.



13/18
And risk exposure to Russian MANPADS shoulder fired missiles, only to lob a few dozen unguided rockets to doubtful effect.

14/18
They are going to instead be able to lob _16_ GBU-38's with HdH wing kits 10 km behind the front line - out of MANPADS range - into Russian Army positions up to 30km behind the front line.

The PSU gets to deliver USAF style SHOCK & AWE, Baby!
15/18
Does anyone doubt that a couple hundred GBU-38 carefully painted upon these Russian fortifications like this in a week's time would crack them open like a sledge hammer hitting an egg?


16/18
At eight GBU-38 plus glide kits per Su-25, that is 25 sorties.

Four sorties a day for six days plus one more Su-25 sortie on the seventh.

17/18
JDAM-ER death is coming for the Russian Army carried on Ukrainian wings.

Welcome to Ukraine, vatniks.

18/18 End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Aug 28
Remember all the professionally incompetent yo-yo naval officers & hangers on claiming FPV drones were not a threat to naval warships in 2023 WHEN I TOLD THEM THEY WOULD BE?

Reality just kicked them one and all in the 'nads...

...HARD⬇️

1/2
I told these professionally incompetent US navalists accounts on X/Twitter in 2023 that both containerized drones and FPV drones were a deadly threat to every naval vessel on the water they were ignoring to their crew's peril.

2/
Those professionally incompetent yo-yo US navalists accounts didn't listen because of their Dunning-Kruger group think delusions.

They refused to accept the reality that surprise FPV attacks happen because the enemy always gets a vote...FIRST!

This is where I laugh at them⬇️
3/3
Read 4 tweets
Aug 23
We need to have a talk about Russian military corruption and its effects on the Russo-Ukrainian War.

It's kind of like these sun-rotted missile truck tires that make my reputation on Twitter.

Corruption happens slowly, then all at once.

Corruption🧵
1/ Image
The Russian Army issued a "live off the land" order in early March 2022 resulted in lots of Russian enlisted stealing outside the line of sight of Russian junior officers.

This hollowed out discipline the RuAF "Professional Volunteers" in early 2022.

2/
Given the visuals of the base level corruption of Russian society in terms of oil income disparity.

A lot of "Russia Strong" yo-yo's just shrug and say, "so what, Russia won wars when it was corrupt."

3/
Read 21 tweets
Aug 21
At a production rate of 100 FP-1 drones a day. Fire Point will make 13,200 FP-1 one way attack (OWA) drone by 1 Jan 2026.

By itself.

Every other Ukrainian OWA drone maker is in addition to that 13,200 number.

1/2
If the FP-1 really is 60% of Ukrainian OWA drone production. (Rather than just recent launches)

0.6 (x) = 13,200
x = 13,200/0.6
x = 22,000

Ukraine is on track to make 22,000 OWA drones in the last 132 days of 2025. 👀


2/
22,000 Ukrainian OWA drones in 132 days certainly is a strategic bombing threat of the first order.

Even if Russia downs 80% of them.

That is 4,400 Ukrainian OWA drone hits in Russia in the next 132 days or 33 and 1/3 precision guided drone hits on Russia per day to 2026.
3/3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Aug 21
More information has come out on the FP-5 Flamingo which gives insights io both the systems and production engineering involved for low cost production.

I'm going to use the WW2 F6F Hellcat & M4 Sherman as examples of Ukrainian FP-5 design choices.

Engineering🧵
1/
The FP-5 GLCM production photos released today shows what looks like a combination of carbon fiber composite, molded thermoplastics, and sheet metal.

Cruciform tail controls are all moving.

Wings are attached before launch like a 1960s USAF MGM-1 Matador.
2/ Image
The FP-5 Transporter Erector Launch (TEL) trailer looks like a new custom build.

Iryna Terekh, head of production at Fire Point, stated to the AP that "Fire Point is producing roughly one Flamingo per day, and by October they hope to build capacity to make seven per day."

3/ Image
Image
Read 16 tweets
Aug 19
I've gotten a lot of comments on this thread here and via DM. I'm going to share one from a Cold War gray beard on the engine that powers the FP-5.

"FP-5 is around 4 x Tomahawk in mass.

FP-5 Engine🧵
...With a similar configuration, drag will not be dominated by lift induced wing drag but will form drag which is typical for 500 knots air speed jets and missiles with low aspect ratio wings.

2/
...So a rule of thumb estimate is that you will need around 4 x the thrust of a Tomahawk F107-WR-402 700 lbf (3.1 kN) engine for an FP-5 Flamingo GLCM.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Aug 19
Slowly, with a lot of notice, Trump is morphing into Pres. Biden

This territorial concession malarkey is exactly what the Biden Administration was playing games with in Nov 2021 via an op-ed by Samuel Charap of RAND in the Nov 19, 2021 Politico.

1/
That Op-Ed advocated, in effect, that the US abandon Ukraine to Russia in exchange for other concessions by Russia, greenlighting Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

It was understood in Nov. 2021 era DC that Charap...


2/rand.org/pubs/commentar…
...was Jake Sullivan's totem animal for surfacing ideas of "de-escalation" with Russia.

Former Estonian President Ilves and Prof Stephan Blank utterly shredded the Charap/Sullivan thought balloon.

Seeing Trump revive that Charap/Sullivan thought ballon now is sickening🤮

3/3 Image
Read 4 tweets

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