My latest 'investigation' into poll weightings has found some interesting insights into Yougov #Indyref2 polls. Yougov seem to have fallen asleep at the polling wheel in April 2019, only to awake nearly 4 years later realising demographic change was afoot. (1/3)
In November 2022 (probably after a nudge from the Scottish Election Study) they realised that those darned electors had been sneakily ageing and upped the New voter share by 5 points. (2/3)
Then in December 22 they seem to have gone completely off-piste: upped the New voter figure by another 3 points and abandoned their 2014 #Indyref weighting - meaning a record low No weighting of 40%. Not surprisingly this led to a record Yes figure of 47% in that poll. (3/3)
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The Unionist right wing press seem to be getting themselves over-excited about an #indyref2 poll from the Sun. They claim it shows a big drop in support for independence. It doesn’t. Here’s a 🧵 as to why.
Firstly, the sample is smaller than the normal Scotland wide polling sample of about 1,000. This means that the margin of error will be higher (4.4 points compared with 3), and the actual % figures quoted will be less reliable.
Also as @WhatScotsThink note, there is no previous #indyref2 poll from this company to compare with. This is important because each pollster has its own approach to weighting & determining likelihood to vote. This means comparing polls from different pollsters is problematic.
THREAD INCOMING
My tuppence-worth on the Alba Party business, for what it's worth. And why I think it's not necessarily a bad thing for the Indy movement.
1/10
Firstly I'm a feminist ally and challenge the credibility of Alex Salmond seeking public office after the behaviour he has admitted to. I trusted him in 2014, I shook his hand and supported him. He let me down and he has clearly abused his postiton of power.
2/10
But the success of the Yes movement has brought a wide range of political leanings into the broad umbrella of the SNP. This was never sutainable. And these problems have been thrust into the foreground and intensified by policy disagreements and the Salmond Enquiry.
3/10