Very interesting; if I'm not mistaken the #AusAirForce changed their emissions posture vis-a-vis their transponder between their 2020 and 2021 #OpARGOS missions. In 2020, either they didn't fly, or they obfuscated their patrols sufficiently to avoid open source scrutiny.
From 2020-09-22 to 2020-10-24 🇦🇺 #RAAF P-8A Poseidon A47-010 #7CF9D4 was deployed on #OpARGOS, but they were never picked up using ADS-B flying any missions over the East China sea, only transits between bases. 🤔
Then for the next #OpARGOS, 2021-02-24 to 2021-03-27 I can track ten sorties from #KadenaAB by 🇦🇺 #RAAF P-8A Poseidon A47-010 #7CF9D4, all over the East China Sea by their ADS-B transponder - a much more neighbourly and less confrontational posture than not using ADS-B.
#OpARGOS; 2021-08-11 to 2021-09-13 🇦🇺 #RAAF P-8A Poseidon A47-011 #7CF9D5 conducted patrols over the East China Sea, ten of them using ADS-B. I would note that there are multi-day gaps between flights when they could have flown additional missions more inconspicuously.
All that to say the #AusAirForce WANT you to follow their operations, their planes have changed their configuration to specifically broadcast their exact location, maybe for public transparency, but more likely to prove they are in international airspace in case of any dispute.
Here is the thread of this year's #OpARGOS deployment, which started 2023-02-08; they're about half done. There seem to be 1-2 day breaks between missions.
Before I explain to the #AusAirForce 🇦🇺 comms ppl, please appreciate that their P-8A Poseidon fleet broadcasts its own location to anyone who will listen, using ADS-B. That signal will geolocate them from orbit. On patrol, their locations are the least secret thing over the SCS.
This tweet, that has all the words in it you'd need to find it, gives you the tail numbers and ICAO Mode-S hexes of the whole #AusAirForce 🇦🇺 P-8A Poseidon fleet. You can follow them pretty much any day with the link that's included in the quoted tweet.
Here's a way you may not have looked at the data #ADSBexchange gives you.
Planes using ADS-B transmit their precise location (lat/lon/alt/speed/etc) but planes using Mode-S need to be geolocated using multilateration (MLAT). like TRIangulation, but with 4 data points (Multi) 🧵
Here is an image (and link) representing *only* planes being geolocated using MLAT. Meaning, 4 or more #ADSBexchange receivers have them in line-of-sight (LOS); 10 of them.
Here is the same area, showing you what aircraft transmitting Mode-S are not being geolocated, meaning 4 #ADSBexchange receivers do not have these planes in LOS; 81 of them.
It's only a matter of time before the CP-140 Aurora deployments to Keflavik, that coincide with Russian Navy movements through the GIUK gap, get traction in the press.
They pretend it's not happening. We see them. 🤦♂️
They pretended the press couldn't see it happening and wouldn't talk about it like it was some secret operation. Au contraire, it was so visible I live-tweeted it.
🇺🇸 People stop me on the street all the time and ask me, Stef, how can you tell where in the United States there are too few #ADSBexchange receivers to geolocate aircraft that aren't broadcasting their precise location data using multilateration (#MLAT)?
Great question!
Here's what you do:
filter by altitude, between 10,000-40,000 ft, that restricts the results to aircraft which are flying high enough that we should home four or more receivers are in line of sight, a requirement for #MLAT.
Then filter so you only see the Mode-S-transponder-transmitting aircraft
‣ 177701 flew from Trenton to Ottawa to Whitehorse on 2023-02-12 presumably related to the 🎈
‣ 177704 seems to be out of comission at #CFBTrenton, it hasn't flown in over a month.