Thread by @minna_alander

Now that we know that Finland will contribute 3 “leopard 2-based demining vehicles” for Ukraine (I had personally hoped for MBTs as well), it’s time for the first lecture in the new subject Helsinkilogy.

So how exactly did the Leo business go in Finland ? 🧵

For starters: it’s every Finnish defence planners’ absolute horror to even think about giving up any MBTs which would be away from 🇫🇮 own defence (here none of them just rust in storage).

A serious threat to 🇫🇮 security right now is unlikely BUT

1) we don’t know how long it will take to get the last ratifications for full NATO membership & until then 🇫🇮 has no binding security guarantees (EU 42.7 isn’t considered sufficient, hence the NATO bid)
2) replacing tanks can take years so 🇫🇮 risks a long-term capability gap

In an op-ed, @AtteHarjanne & @adleande (MPs in parties currently in govt), argued that

1) Ukraine needs western MBTs
2) a European initiative would be a good idea
3) Finland should contribute tanks, within the limits its own defence needs

hbl.fi/artikel/ec5217…

The purpose was twofold: to put pressure on the Finnish govt to participate & also contribute tanks, and to give the international debate a boost so that the initiative would become reality.

But this got interpreted as 🇫🇮 leading the whole thing. Here’s my thread from January:

https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1613828422006079491

Becoming a NATO member will mean a fundamental overhaul of strategic culture, having allies is nothing short of a revolution for 🇫🇮 thinking.

But 🇫🇮 isn’t there yet, so the emphasis stays on not compromising own defence. 200 tanks aren’t a lot for a 1340km border.

https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1624073710490603520

And then there’s Finland’s “strategic non-communication”: it’s the 🇫🇮 approach never to publish details about military aid to Ukraine, except value in €. It’s not only for 🇺🇦 opsec but also so that Russia can’t figure out what Finland might be lacking as a result.

https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1624069510666780682

Personally, I would’ve hoped for Finland to contribute also MBTs. Since Ukraine will need much more equipment (and not only tanks), it would be important to ramp up production in Europe to be able to replace donated equipment quicker.