#24February. 2022 will be for Ukraine what 1940 is to Britain: the year that defines the nation to itself and to the rest of the world, for decades ahead. 5 reads + 1 listen on 1 year of #ukrainewar: 1. My report & conclusions from recent trip to Kyiv: spectator.co.uk/article/the-ne…
2. My Substack newsletter, including photos illustrating the above:
6. @markhleonard Ivan Krastev and I discuss the fascinating results of our @ECFR -Oxford (@EuropeanMoments) opinion polling, showing a more united West, but more divided from the rest:
As a long-time admirer of democratic Germany, I have been deeply depressed and dismayed this week by Chancellor Olaf Scholz's refusal to allow German Leopard 2 tanks to be sent to Ukraine. [long bitty Twitter thread here but full post on timothygartonash.substack.com]
Here are just a few ways in which Scholz's policy is weak, contradictory, inconsistent, historically insensitive, morally problematic, disingenuous and counter-productive... (But apart from that, absolutely fine...)
Ukraine needs modern battle tanks for the combined arms counter-offensives essential to recover more Russian-occupied territory, before Putin's 200,000+ mobilised Russian reserves get there to defend it - & attack again. Time is therefore of the essence.
1. Will @Twitter be Musked? Should people who care about free speech, democracy & Twitter be worried about @elonmusk taking it over? Yes. (First quick thoughts – thread)
2. There is something intrinsically worrying abt the rules for one of contemporary democracy's most important public spaces being set by one man. A J Liebling 'freedom of the press is guaranteed only to those who own one'. aka the Zuckerberg problem.
3. The free speech we need for democracy requires certain minimum levels of civility - & some procedures for checking basic factual veracity. You can't simply rely on unfettered 'counter-speech' to do all the work. Not clear 'free speech absolutist' @elonmusk gets this.
1. 'Be not afraid!' Joe Biden quotes John Paul II in his speech in Warsaw. More than 40 years ago, the Polish Pope gave that advice. It took another 10 hard years for Poland to become free, 25 for it to be secure in the West (EU+NATO).
2. Now Ukrainians are practising that 'be not afraid!', with even more impressive courage in the face of Putin's outright terror - & winning a similar place in the world's memory - one that made it natural for Biden to refer back >40 years to #Solidarity, Lech Walȩsa, etc
3. Of course the Ukrainian path will be different, with inevitable twists & compromises along the way. But we, living comfortably in the West, have absolutely no right to tell Ukrainians to settle for less (so we can go on living comfortably). #UkraineUnderAttack
Last-minute question to EUropean friends, from someone who strongly supports the EU, abhors Brexit and deplores @BorisJohnson:
Are you really sure you have got the balance right between.... [short thread]
1. Not insignificant strategic risk of UK future potential unfair advantage in accesssing single market (tho' only for goods, w many de facto possible asymmetric countermeasures towards 80% of UK economy that is services) and, on the other hand.... on.ft.com/2W1ESwT
2. Strategic risk, in no-deal scenario, of toxic, fractious, hostile relationship with the UK for several years to come, at a time when we all more than ever need Europe to speak with one voice in the world…? thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit…
1. For non-Russian speakers here is an unofficial translation (h/t our Dahrendorf Scholar Ellen Leafstedt) of Alexei Navalny's @navalny@teamnavalny quite remarkable (and humorous - see 8.) Instagram post about his recovery. [thread of single text]
2 "Let me tell you how my recovery is going. It is already a clear path, though not a short one. All my current problems are trivial ones, like the fact that the phone in my hands feels as useless as a stone, and that anytime I pour myself some water it turns into a whole scene
3 Let me explain. Until just recently, I couldn't recognize people and couldn't understand how to talk. Every morning the doctor came to me and said, "Alexey, I brought a board, let's think of a word to write on it." This drove me into despair, because
'EU: from in the Rutte to en route.' Joking apart, the deal is a big achievement. Strange way to run a continent, but reaching consensus in Europe has always been difficult. My 5 1/2 immediate, first-reaction questions (& tentative answers)... [thread] politi.co/3g0q6yV
Q1. Will enough funds reach the right places in hard-hit south European economies fast enough to avoid worsening N/S divide in Eurozone & soaring Salvini-style Eurosceptic populism? (Tentative A: probably yes, just about.)
Q2. Will Rutte & Kurz-style 'frugal four' hard line keep in check equal and opposite north European Eurosceptic populism? (A: probably yes, just about.)