Musings of the Day, 2/24/23:
This really is a myth and to everyone that perpetuates it, I ask:
What is China's alternative that can match the combination of liquidity and safety of USTs?
This really is a myth and to everyone that perpetuates it, I ask:
What is China's alternative that can match the combination of liquidity and safety of USTs?
https://twitter.com/amlivemon/status/1629105849472847872?s=20
I call attention to this other paper that I quote in my West Point paper (to be released on my Substack tomorrow):
"The first key element behind the Dollar’s Imperial Circle is the direction of capital flows towards the U.S. economy as the main destination that has the capacity to absorb saving coming mainly from Asia."
"This element reflects the massive global asset shortage that is more pronounced in Asia and forces money into the U.S."
"For example, as emphasized by the IMF, the size of life insurers assets is more than 10 times the size of their respective domestic corporate bond market."
As an export-driven economy, China should welcome a weaker CNY, right? RIGHT? 
Too bad they already tipped their hand on their vulnerabilities.
https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1600376515388010496?s=20
You know what a Strong USD Policy does for the US that's not captured in traditional Balance of Payments analyses?
IT EXPORTS INFLATION.
IT EXPORTS INFLATION.
I said to @maggielake this week that the current setup feels like Q1'22. Maybe we should look at some key charts to compare now vs. Q1'22 to see what might come next?
https://twitter.com/RealVision/status/1628499705847234561?s=20
$SPY $GLD $TLT $DXY
Q1'22 vs. Q1'23
Q1'22 vs. Q1'23
More granularity from GS. Sure starting to look like Stagflation.
Anyone remember these comments from Powell/Brainard? Seems particularly relevant given that Core PCE (the Fed’s primary yardstick) is rising again.
https://twitter.com/urbankaoboy/status/1575834165995442177
Reminder: I love healthy, respectful debate. But if you're a useless troll, my auto-block reflex is finely honed at this point.
In other news…I have never paid for a livestream concert, but Marty Friedman is the shit. 🤘🤘🤘
The Long Bond broke back below its MOATL. Yikes.
As I said earlier, it feels very much like Q1'22.
As I said earlier, it feels very much like Q1'22.
Speaking of #Gothilocks and goth chicks, @agnostoxxx I just discovered a new band you might like. 🤘🤘🤘
Me gusta!
Me gusta!
And they have an album named "Macro." What's not to like? 🤘
What a perfect time for a contraindicative article on the USD Wrecking Ball.
Look for my West Point Paper to drop on my Substack tomorrow am and lmk what you think.
Have a great weekend, all!🙏
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Look for my West Point Paper to drop on my Substack tomorrow am and lmk what you think.
Have a great weekend, all!🙏
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
For the CNY/China apologists, before you think the grass is always greener…
This is corroborated by Andrew Hunt’s proprietary research of 36 Chinese banks that alone comprise a $4T liability gap NOT captured by BoP data.
@BurggrabenH
This is corroborated by Andrew Hunt’s proprietary research of 36 Chinese banks that alone comprise a $4T liability gap NOT captured by BoP data.
@BurggrabenH
https://twitter.com/urbankaoboy/status/1613279655888580613
Which would you rather hold, assuming you had a choice and didn’t just invade another country?
USD or CNY? 🤔
USD or CNY? 🤔
https://twitter.com/sofiahcbbg/status/1629088615270580224
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