The main take from tonight's vlogg discussion was that Ukraine has managed the war better during 2023 than was expected. There where also doubts that Russia was able to a large offensive encompassing the whole area east of the Dniepr.
Most thought that an offensive west of Kharkiv to threaten ukrainian forces east of the Oskil river and in Slavyansk was the most likely major alternative for a large offensive. I concur with that assessment and has written about it several times already.
I believe that a number of medium-sized offensives are the most likely russian course of action. There could also be combined with continuous intensified attrition and diversionary attacks in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions.
The main goal would be to prevent an ukrainian counteroffensive, inflict large ukrainian losses and the complete taking of Donetsk oblast.
The last in turn would lead to unrolling of the well fortified ukrainian defence lines, ending of the ukrainian semi siege of Donetsk City and a wider land corridor to Crimea.
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